Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Sydney Claridge]

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Here we go...

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1853481628875809191?t=1dheqYTKF1zbmnQsj1x5rw&s=19

70/40 tornado probabilities too. The watch does cover a large area (DFW all the way up to the OK/KS border), though.

[Stx_Thunder]

Clearly seeing the robust ML Low spinning even on radar over NM (south of Albuquerque) and still edging south over the past several hours. Also seeing a few lightning strikes starting to show up now in the light precip shield around the center near Albuquerque.

Del Rio 12z UA obs earlier this morning already has around 60 knots effective shear and WBZ height now under 10 kft. Fairly stout and typical, but definitely not un-breakable 850mb inversion. Especially with all the dynamics and front coming in later today or this evening.

Definitely going to be interesting tonight even over the southern half and San Antonio area in the more robust thunder initiation zone.

[Powerball]

https://x.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1853510330326061529?t=37bJVDljta42xds3pfA6Jw&s=19

 

[Powerball]

It's getting pretty randy just SW of DFW now...

[TXHawk88]

Let’s see how this all unfolds

[Powerball]

27 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Let’s see how this all unfolds

 

Might have spoke too soon.

Things are looking more messy on the latest radar frames, and the active warnings have ended

[Powerball]

Quiet as its kept, might have a flash flood episode setting up for parts of DFW too...

[Powerball]

Tornado Watch has been dropped for the western half of DFW...

[Stx_Thunder]

Getting more robust and sustained cluster development just northwest of San Antonio with a new severe warning there and new development ongoing now further southwest. All activity in the region is still progressing south fairly slow also since cells initiated about 3 hours ago now.

[Stx_Thunder]

No outbreak by any means yesterday, but was not a bust in the state either.

-  And I have to give GEFS and EPS systems actual credit for the preliminary projection & track of yesterday's deep ML Low into NM and panhandle, from Oct 20th - 25th. They were basically trash for when summer started this year, but this is a pretty good make up. Especially coming out of a unusually quiet October.

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks a bit interesting tonight near/just west of DFW area, and possibly Coastal/SETX Monday afternoon with the front from that next incoming deep but compact ML Low out west. Tracking even further south over northern Mex on wv right now. CAPE and ML lapse rates (again) are going to be the negating factors.

And Fall, actually coming in this week with a reinforcing polar surge dropping all the way through the state mid-week. 40s F everywhere (including STX) Thursday morning on both GFS & Euro. Euro showing DPs in the 10s over CTX Wednesday afternoon (fairly impressive for the time of year).

[Powerball]

DFW has at least tied the record high of 82°F today.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

DFW has at least tied the record high of 82°F today.

83°F was the official high at DFW, breaking the previous record of 82°F set in 1905...

[Stx_Thunder]

'Loving this very comfortable polar airmass intrusion and overrunning pattern ongoing around here (1st real one of the season) that looks to stay in place until the middle of next week. Gotta be thankful for that and came in early yesterday on the holiday also (as it should more often this time of year).

Decent, but typical net result coastal troughing looks to deepen next to Deep STX the next few days, so overrunning rainfall and even some thunder potential is there for the entire Coastal region. Euro, has been putting out some decent amounts for the time of year & scenario (and all things considered lately with the basically statewide drought now also). Up to a couple inches total over SETX into next weekend, but may be overdone and because of the time of year.

GFS going somewhat drier, but is showing hints of the coldest wx of the season over the state (so far) going into the 1st full week of December. Which wouldn't be surprising now as I'm also seeing a trend in the GEFS painting a more persistent - AO phase going into mid-December. Which could lead to a more prolonged chill period also. That'd be quite a turnaround before the end of the year, from all the warmth of late.

[Powerball]

For DFW:

With November having officlally ended, it was the 8th warmest on record with an average temp of 61.7°F.

Also, Fall 2024 was the 3rd warmest on record with an average temp of 72.2°F.

 

[Stx_Thunder]

Overrunning cold rain & elevated thunder setup this weekend looks good for much of the state. The best statewide rain setup even out west in the more drought-stricken areas of the Western hill country and San Antonio region (since start of Nov). Likely no drought buster around there with this kind of winter setup, but is definitely a step in the right direction.

Euro and GFS have been showing up near an inch or so in some areas out there through early next week in the past several runs. Higher totals will obviously be further east per usual closer to the coastal surface Low/warm front moving near the coast in response to the incoming ML Low out west.

Seeing that next cutoff incoming ML Low starting to take shape this evening near the AZ/Mex border and appears to be deepening. Which could cause it to dive further south in Mex before it ejects this weekend. Either way, models have been showing plentiful support for lift aloft during the past couple days of runs along with saturated low-mid levels. ML lapse rates are already fairly steep this evening around the state. Already seeing some high-based sporadic lightning activity going on this evening over WTX.

- - -

Saw there was some fairly frequent lightning discharges and elevated thunder clustering scenario in yesterday's SS shortwave energy over C - ETX. Some powerful CG strikes yesterday around midday (>100 kA) on the map in such overrunning pattern. Wednesday 12Z DFW ua obs only had about 500 MUCAPE (if that) with definitely not the steepest of ML lapse rates (only about 6 but did go above 7 late in the day) either to really support that kind of frequent lightning discharge. Though some of those convective tops yesterday did manage near 40 Kft looking at ET radar data.

[Stx_Thunder]

With all this above normal Gulf warmth next to Christmas, not surprised SPC is possibly under-doing things (again) later today on Christmas Eve with just a marginal risk area on this early morning's D1 outlook. Both Euro & GFS are actually showing a pretty volatile convective environment around the I-10 corridor (SAT - HOU areas) with the next front moving through the state. I also saw an isolated storm not far offshore yesterday afternoon that lasted for a while on its own when I was out and about.

DL shear doesn't look to be really strong, but still notable areas of 40 - 50 knots by early evening in San Antonio region. Multi-global model output also showing near 100% thunder risk areas. And this time moreover, ML lapse rates look to be pretty steep (closer to 8 or even possibly above). Potential steep LL lapse rates also as the front will be coming into the region at best time of day (later afternoon).

-

At this point on model runs, Thursday's (26th) setup isn't looking anywhere as convectively unstable in E/SETX. Despite better projected shear.

[Powerball]

Now this is a nice Christmas present.

T'Storms with Flash Flooding...

[Stx_Thunder]

Some real (sfc-based) Christmas thunder action going on around the I-10 corridor SC - SETX region this evening. Roughly between San Antonio - Houston now. Radar showed a few convective tops getting close to 50 Kft in the past 2 hours near SAT on the southern most cells. Quite high for this time of year.

Decent amount of severe hail reports in the past several hours of > 1 in., and a large hail (2 in.) report near Caldwell.

 

[Stx_Thunder]

Robust convective environment around the I-10 corridor region for Christmas tonight, alright. Definitely looks like an early/mid spring convective pattern or MCS.

+CGs really went on from around midnight until about an hour ago.

-

Should also note that the ML temp profile aloft is pretty cold as H7 temps were only 4 C in STX, and closer to -20 C further north @ H5 on yesterday evening's obs sounding data.

[Chinook]

chance for tornadoes tomorrow, including Houston, Shreveport

[Stx_Thunder]

Still looks more like a heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. Rather than severe threat over E/SETX later today (26th).

The globals have also backed off more on the amount of substantial inland CAPE penetration from a few days ago on runs. Except around Houston area (near coast). The Gulf warm sector or old Christmas Eve front that caused all the robust storms last night doesn't look like it'll move back far enough north to really bring back convective instability looking at dew point projections also (like the environment already was Christmas Eve).

Precipitable water is projected to get close to 2 in. on both Euro & GFS (near 1.8" now on GFS). Which is actually a good ways above normal for this time of year, being wintertime especially. So I definitely agree with WPC's excessive rainfall outlook slight risk area over a larger area of ETX. Maybe even DFW area. If it's another potent shortwave coming in like the Christmas Eve one, it might border on moderate risk level in some areas over E/SETX. Especially with such above normal PWs being projected and all accumulated rainfall around there since December began. Some areas have seen 5 in. (bit higher in some spots looking at TexMesonet data), just in the past 2 weeks. I'm sure that's fairly high for December standards even for that region.

[Chinook]

SPC has put up a 10% (enhanced) level of threat for tornadoes north Houston. It is mid-winter, so I don't know if this level of risk will work out.

[Powerball]

On 12/24/2024 at 11:00 AM, Powerball said:

Now this is a nice Christmas present.

T'Storms with Flash Flooding...

A repeat of Christmas Eve today with more T'Storms and Flash Flooding...

[Chinook]

not a lot happening in TX, but still getting further discussion from SPC

Quote

 Areas affected...Southeastern Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

   Valid 261914Z - 262115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of southeast Texas
   as storms intensify across the region.

Quote

In the short term, the greatest severe/tornado risk will
   likely be associated with the stronger cells within the line
   approaching the Houston area and in far southeast TX where low-level
   mesocyclones associated with persistent supercells have been noted.

 

[Powerball]

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

not a lot happening in TX, but still getting further discussion from SPC

 

Storm mode's looking quite messy, which is a good thing.

Meanwhile, between Christmas Eve and today, MBY has picked up easily 4" of rain.

 

[Chinook]

non-warned storms with shear/rotation

[Chinook]

the north storm near Hardin has a PDS tornado warning

[Chinook]

tornado reported near Dayton, TX

[canderson]

Big bust in Texas for severe today. Good. .