Sydney Claridge Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Here we go... https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1853481628875809191?t=1dheqYTKF1zbmnQsj1x5rw&s=19 70/40 tornado probabilities too. The watch does cover a large area (DFW all the way up to the OK/KS border), though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 Clearly seeing the robust ML Low spinning even on radar over NM (south of Albuquerque) and still edging south over the past several hours. Also seeing a few lightning strikes starting to show up now in the light precip shield around the center near Albuquerque. Del Rio 12z UA obs earlier this morning already has around 60 knots effective shear and WBZ height now under 10 kft. Fairly stout and typical, but definitely not un-breakable 850mb inversion. Especially with all the dynamics and front coming in later today or this evening. Definitely going to be interesting tonight even over the southern half and San Antonio area in the more robust thunder initiation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 https://x.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1853510330326061529?t=37bJVDljta42xds3pfA6Jw&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 It's getting pretty randy just SW of DFW now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Let’s see how this all unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 27 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said: Let’s see how this all unfolds Might have spoke too soon. Things are looking more messy on the latest radar frames, and the active warnings have ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Quiet as its kept, might have a flash flood episode setting up for parts of DFW too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Tornado Watch has been dropped for the western half of DFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 5 Author Share Posted November 5 Getting more robust and sustained cluster development just northwest of San Antonio with a new severe warning there and new development ongoing now further southwest. All activity in the region is still progressing south fairly slow also since cells initiated about 3 hours ago now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 5 Author Share Posted November 5 No outbreak by any means yesterday, but was not a bust in the state either. - And I have to give GEFS and EPS systems actual credit for the preliminary projection & track of yesterday's deep ML Low into NM and panhandle, from Oct 20th - 25th. They were basically trash for when summer started this year, but this is a pretty good make up. Especially coming out of a unusually quiet October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 17 Author Share Posted November 17 Looks a bit interesting tonight near/just west of DFW area, and possibly Coastal/SETX Monday afternoon with the front from that next incoming deep but compact ML Low out west. Tracking even further south over northern Mex on wv right now. CAPE and ML lapse rates (again) are going to be the negating factors. And Fall, actually coming in this week with a reinforcing polar surge dropping all the way through the state mid-week. 40s F everywhere (including STX) Thursday morning on both GFS & Euro. Euro showing DPs in the 10s over CTX Wednesday afternoon (fairly impressive for the time of year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 DFW has at least tied the record high of 82°F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, Powerball said: DFW has at least tied the record high of 82°F today. 83°F was the official high at DFW, breaking the previous record of 82°F set in 1905... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 29 Author Share Posted November 29 'Loving this very comfortable polar airmass intrusion and overrunning pattern ongoing around here (1st real one of the season) that looks to stay in place until the middle of next week. Gotta be thankful for that and came in early yesterday on the holiday also (as it should more often this time of year). Decent, but typical net result coastal troughing looks to deepen next to Deep STX the next few days, so overrunning rainfall and even some thunder potential is there for the entire Coastal region. Euro, has been putting out some decent amounts for the time of year & scenario (and all things considered lately with the basically statewide drought now also). Up to a couple inches total over SETX into next weekend, but may be overdone and because of the time of year. GFS going somewhat drier, but is showing hints of the coldest wx of the season over the state (so far) going into the 1st full week of December. Which wouldn't be surprising now as I'm also seeing a trend in the GEFS painting a more persistent - AO phase going into mid-December. Which could lead to a more prolonged chill period also. That'd be quite a turnaround before the end of the year, from all the warmth of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 For DFW: With November having officlally ended, it was the 8th warmest on record with an average temp of 61.7°F. Also, Fall 2024 was the 3rd warmest on record with an average temp of 72.2°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted December 6 Author Share Posted December 6 Overrunning cold rain & elevated thunder setup this weekend looks good for much of the state. The best statewide rain setup even out west in the more drought-stricken areas of the Western hill country and San Antonio region (since start of Nov). Likely no drought buster around there with this kind of winter setup, but is definitely a step in the right direction. Euro and GFS have been showing up near an inch or so in some areas out there through early next week in the past several runs. Higher totals will obviously be further east per usual closer to the coastal surface Low/warm front moving near the coast in response to the incoming ML Low out west. Seeing that next cutoff incoming ML Low starting to take shape this evening near the AZ/Mex border and appears to be deepening. Which could cause it to dive further south in Mex before it ejects this weekend. Either way, models have been showing plentiful support for lift aloft during the past couple days of runs along with saturated low-mid levels. ML lapse rates are already fairly steep this evening around the state. Already seeing some high-based sporadic lightning activity going on this evening over WTX. - - - Saw there was some fairly frequent lightning discharges and elevated thunder clustering scenario in yesterday's SS shortwave energy over C - ETX. Some powerful CG strikes yesterday around midday (>100 kA) on the map in such overrunning pattern. Wednesday 12Z DFW ua obs only had about 500 MUCAPE (if that) with definitely not the steepest of ML lapse rates (only about 6 but did go above 7 late in the day) either to really support that kind of frequent lightning discharge. Though some of those convective tops yesterday did manage near 40 Kft looking at ET radar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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