Sydney Claridge Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Here we go... https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1853481628875809191?t=1dheqYTKF1zbmnQsj1x5rw&s=19 70/40 tornado probabilities too. The watch does cover a large area (DFW all the way up to the OK/KS border), though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 Clearly seeing the robust ML Low spinning even on radar over NM (south of Albuquerque) and still edging south over the past several hours. Also seeing a few lightning strikes starting to show up now in the light precip shield around the center near Albuquerque. Del Rio 12z UA obs earlier this morning already has around 60 knots effective shear and WBZ height now under 10 kft. Fairly stout and typical, but definitely not un-breakable 850mb inversion. Especially with all the dynamics and front coming in later today or this evening. Definitely going to be interesting tonight even over the southern half and San Antonio area in the more robust thunder initiation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 https://x.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1853510330326061529?t=37bJVDljta42xds3pfA6Jw&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 It's getting pretty randy just SW of DFW now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Let’s see how this all unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 27 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said: Let’s see how this all unfolds Might have spoke too soon. Things are looking more messy on the latest radar frames, and the active warnings have ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Quiet as its kept, might have a flash flood episode setting up for parts of DFW too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Tornado Watch has been dropped for the western half of DFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 5 Author Share Posted November 5 Getting more robust and sustained cluster development just northwest of San Antonio with a new severe warning there and new development ongoing now further southwest. All activity in the region is still progressing south fairly slow also since cells initiated about 3 hours ago now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 5 Author Share Posted November 5 No outbreak by any means yesterday, but was not a bust in the state either. - And I have to give GEFS and EPS systems actual credit for the preliminary projection & track of yesterday's deep ML Low into NM and panhandle, from Oct 20th - 25th. They were basically trash for when summer started this year, but this is a pretty good make up. Especially coming out of a unusually quiet October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted Sunday at 08:03 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:03 PM Looks a bit interesting tonight near/just west of DFW area, and possibly Coastal/SETX Monday afternoon with the front from that next incoming deep but compact ML Low out west. Tracking even further south over northern Mex on wv right now. CAPE and ML lapse rates (again) are going to be the negating factors. And Fall, actually coming in this week with a reinforcing polar surge dropping all the way through the state mid-week. 40s F everywhere (including STX) Thursday morning on both GFS & Euro. Euro showing DPs in the 10s over CTX Wednesday afternoon (fairly impressive for the time of year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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