Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 I assume that shortwave is behind the storms that have been rumbling around Houston for well over 3 hours but haven't produced all that rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 18 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I assume that shortwave is behind the storms that have been rumbling around Houston for well over 3 hours but haven't produced all that rain. Just saw that was a pretty strong little cluster in The Woodlands area a few hours ago (before dissipating), looking at lightning analysis data. Quite frequent & sig amount of positive CGs. There’s also a backdoor front in the state as DFW sounding has come in a lot drier compared to 12Z sounding Saturday morning. Mid-level RH is around 10% & near 30% low-level on 0Z SPC sounding tonight. Surface DP was near 50 F. There’s good evidence of the boundary’s presence with 700Mb moisture pooling swath in ETX on compiled 0Z obs sounding data. - The front could get some more southward progression assistance today & Monday with the northerly flow influence on outer western quadrant of TS Debby going into eastern Gulf coastal region. Especially if it gets stronger into hurricane as I’m seeing on NHC intensity forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 Fairly large MCC popped up late last night (after 3 am) just east of Houston and made some decent southwestward progress down the coast before dissipating mid-morning. The ABC 13 east-facing tower cam had front row seat of the lightning show not far from the city before it got daylight this morning. But ‘did also get to see how it was like underneath it in a more modest intensity on an island surf cam around Bolivar Peninsula. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Ensemble models yesterday looked like a hurricane risk for the W Gulf was possible, almost probable. 0Z and 6Z models and ensembles are backing off that in a major way. There is another wave just off Africa, but I suspect a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 9 Author Share Posted August 9 Looks like some decent non-trop convective action popping up over CTX region this afternoon (south of DFW area) with another boundary backdooring into the state. Seeing lower 60 F DPs, and decent northerly surface flow and pressure rises in NTX now early this morning around Wichita Falls. SPC highlighting MRGL risk area on today’s D1 outlook for possible damaging wind gusts. All this summer TX heat (more 100s if front is in NTX) and some more decent ML shortwave energy rotating south (seeing evidence of that with storms ongoing over Panhandle and OK near the Red River early this morning), from the Plains around the furnace High off to the northwest will probably foster some decent overall instability around CTX at least till sundown today. So wouldn’t doubt at least a few pulse supercells (despite lack of DL shear this time of year). - Most CAM runs from yesterday evening are indeed showing initiation by late afternoon north/east of Austin then basically marching southwest as more of a linear cluster into San Antonio area (will likely be a substantial outflow if the storms happen), into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 9 Author Share Posted August 9 FWD & Del Rio (DRT), 12Z obs soundings this morning definitely confirming some steep ML lapse rates also (about 7.0 C/km). Which is pretty steep for this time of year. Already some more substantial cells starting to pop up just south of DFW (like CAMs were depicting on yesterday evening 0Z runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 The summer hasn't been all that hot (relative to average) thus far, but if the 00z GFS is to believe, a brutal 2nd half of August will definitely help to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 5 hours ago, Powerball said: The summer hasn't been all that hot (relative to average) thus far, but if the 00z GFS is to believe, a brutal 2nd half of August will definitely help to make up for it. Worst climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Today marks the 14th 100°F+ day of the year for DFW. In all likelihood, it's the start of a decent streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 Looks like a more convectively active pattern will be returning this weekend into next week over the Coastal region (particularly mid/upper-coast into SETX), & start taking more of the edge off this mostly ‘been typical’ August furnace heat. This pattern change would be on-schedule around here for late August (regardless of any TC influence). Also been seeing a few thunder cells popping up near Galveston late last night & right now. Multi-model output thunder probs aren’t too high through next week, but are definitely there each day before higher & more widespread areas start showing up into next weekend. Odds of seeing any hurricane strike this year in STX is looking slim now coming into late August (is latest if it were to happen). Which is good. Overnight lows have been staying pretty high in the mid 80s around here this morning, likely due to LL thermal ridging overhead & 90 F coastal water temp. Though despite looking at SPC 0Z compiled obs UA data, 850Mb temps are definitely above 20 C over STX if sfc temps are still mid-80s near the coast right now (as of posting this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 This Summer is likely on track to be a top 20 warmest for DFW (in addition to this being a top 10 hottest August). Also, a large part of North Texas is now under moderate drought conditions. I know after 2022 and 2023, this year feels milquetoast in comparison (especially with the mild July). But yeah, statistically, the records will reflect it was another hot one with an impressve turnaround on both the precipitation (especially with the surplus we had as of early June) and temp front... Can't help but wonder how much worse it would have been without the unusually early start to the season we had for global tropical activity in the first half of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 23 Author Share Posted August 23 Decent convective action going on this afternoon despite broad influence of the furnace High over the state (which is fairly weak with H5 only around 595dm) & considering how dry it’s been lately. Must be a decent ML shortwave tracking southwestward on southeastern periphery of High edging north now. But ‘was nice to see a darker sky earlier today and a little thunder after a couple weeks of nothing around me. Multi-model output thunder probs starting to show some enhanced areas over mid-upper coast Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 Can clearly see the non-trop mid-upper level Low that curved down the EC into the northern Gulf, NWS Brownsville was discussing now in this morning’s AFD. Circulation easily notable on WV with a decent amount of lightning ongoing right around it as of typing this. That Low explains why multi-model thunder output the past 2 days was showing enhanced prob areas Monday morning (tomorrow) when it comes onshore. - - - - - Euro & GFS, and ensembles starting to step up on rainfall amounts through next weekend as moisture looks to stick around & ridging influence looking more likely now to stay away for the most part (which typically starts to happen in late August). Showing some 3 - 4” areas now around the upper coast around SETX and going higher into first week of September. @Ed, snow and hurricane fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 With August 2024 having come to a close, 2024 was the 16th hottest Summer on record for DFW with an average temp of 86.0°F and the 10th hottest August on record with an average temp of 88.9°F. While not nearly on the level of 2023, 1998, 1980 or 2011 hot, it was still up there with 1999, 2012 and 2018 in terms of overall intensity as well as 2.1°F above average. August 2024 did tie with August 2010 for the 16th driest on record as well (with only 0.41" of precip). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 3 Author Share Posted September 3 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0968&yr=2024 WPC now has a quite broad D1 ERO Slight risk area. The San Angelo area has close to 10 in. rainfall now just in the last 24 hours. - - - Had thunder going on during every hour around me for 12 hours or so yesterday which hasn’t happened in a good while with a tropical ML Low near the coast now. Heaviest rainfall the next few days looks to be around the mid-coast (especially PWs having already been around 2.5”), until a legit “Taste of Fall” front looks to actually move all the way through most if not entire state this weekend (way ahead of season at least over the southern half in early September). ETX surprisingly is looking to stay pretty dry this week despite front/troughing in state. Euro showing DPs dropping quite low into the 40s for a lot of the state (for this time of year), early next week. Which would yield some pretty effective nocturnal radiational cooling if so. Showing 50s air temp lows and even lower 80s for highs on the map Monday - Tuesday over a good part of the hill country region near San Antonio / Austin area too. Which both are definitely below normal in early-mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Interesting tidbit from FWD this morning... All available perfect-prog guidance projects 500mb temperatures above the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex will rise above -1C (into the 30s in Fahrenheit) on Friday. The NAM has 500mb temperatures above freezing! This isn`t just near-record for September but would challenge the all-time record high 500mb temperature for our local weather balloons (1950 to present), which is -0.5C from July 1951. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Worst climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 DFW set a record maximum low of 79*F yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Getting walloped right now with a severe t'storm. Power went out briefly then popped back on for now, and had some large hail for a brief moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 25 Author Share Posted September 25 Some decent convective cluster action starting to get going on the mid-coast now ahead of that front that’s to bring some fairly comfortable conditions across the state the next few days (definitely fall-like all things considered just coming out of summer & still September). Nothing powerful though so far on lightning strike analysis. The drier frontal airmass could get sustenance for several days with the northerly flow on the outer western circulation of hurricane Helene as it goes inland and north into the mid-south. - - - - - WBZ height is pretty low for the time of year on BRO and CRP soundings today. Right near 10,000’ now on special 18Z obs on CRP with a bit of a dry slot 700mb - 500mb layer which may enhance the severe wind gust and hail potential a little bit in the strongest cells earlier this evening over STX. SPC surprisingly has marginal risk area even down the lower coast on current D1 outlook through early tomorrow (despite the still quite meager shear values). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 As things stand now, October is on track for the warmest on record for DFW... Also, crazy as it might be, DFW may have a legit shot at finishing the month with no precip (obviously also being the driest on record). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 Tomorrow's record high for DFW is 91*F, which is also the forecast high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 seems like low hanging fruit record wise but i don't follow your climo enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 No measurable rain since 9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Changes coming later next week, it seems. Just in time for my wedding weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted October 26 Author Share Posted October 26 3 hours ago, cstrunk said: Changes coming later next week, it seems. Just in time for my wedding weekend. Both GFS and Euro starting to show a potentially robust cutoff H5 Low out west over Baja/W Mex around Nov 5. If that's the case, then we could have a more prolonged wet period over the state to start November (and possible severe). Ensembles have been outputting some fairly signficant rain amounts in early November for about a week now. Latest ECMWF run going up to 4 in. over the northern half. Given that LN still hasn't developed even officially into a weak state (like CPC insisted earlier this year, by August/September), the odds are decent for at least some actual rainfall over much of the state. And dynamical ENSO models now aren't showing much of any LN developing this winter. Which would be better overall for TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 Still looks, and getting even more and more convectively interesting now (severe potential also) with each new Euro and GFS run, tomorrow night - Tuesday morning for pretty much all the eastern half. Even San Antonio area, and into deep STX. 'Not surprised at all SPC hasn't even pushed the marginal risk area on D2 outlook update earlier today over STX (typical of them). Incoming ML trough/H5 Low out west keeps trending further south in the state, speeding up the arrival of 40+ kt DL shear now and better dynamics toward the lower coast also (more in line now with the incoming frontal convective activity Monday night). CIN is already fairly weak on this evening 0Z soundings (noticing that down here today with bigger cumulus formation and storms last Friday morning that I didn't expect), and projected to rapidly erode tomorrow evening (if any by then). Bulk shear already around 50 knots and 40 at H5 on 0Z Del Rio sounding this evening. Moisture will likely be enough. Only thing possibly sig lacking is good enough ML lapse rates that are projected to lower as Monday night progresses.. Later this week into next week could also get interesting with trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 The more I look over everything, today is feeling like a somewhat underhyped setup... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 I'm definitely keeping an eye on that area of showers currently over the DFW area (and more generally along and west of the I-35 corridor in north Texas), to see if any supercells try to go up within the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Here we go... https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1853481628875809191?t=1dheqYTKF1zbmnQsj1x5rw&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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