Stx_Thunder Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 Looking pretty favorable for both severe (hail/damaging winds) & flooding on Monday. More MCS activity likely over ETX, but especially SETX overall (front will be hanging around there also), with decent DL shear for mid May (40 - 50 kts), instability and support for lift aloft from the next incoming Low into the plains on both GFS & Euro latest runs. SPC now has fairly large slight risk for eastern half on Monday. WPC’s ERO has possible moderate risk upgrade on Sunday, but will probably also expand Monday's ERO slight risk to cover most of SETX or Houston area also. Especially with the continued model projection of 2”+ PW pooling ahead of the front around there. Already seeing some evidence of that potential on Brownsville (BRO) 12z observed sounding this morning with PW at 1.98”, where front is currently meandering in deep STX also causing some elevated convective activity as of typing this post this morning. Other typical storms/supercells are expected to develop out west over Mexican terrain later this afternoon and progress east into hill country and south into STX. But 12z HRRR also showing new development around Houston area overnight into Sunday morning. - - - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I'm now in the rare (for us) tornado watch. We've had a couple of solid rain showers with thunder on the N side of Harris County, but nothing remotely close to severe limits. RAP sounding IMBY for 2 pm shows long, skinny CAPE, 50 knots of deep shear, but weak low level winds. 2.2 inch PW, looks more like a heavy rain sounding than anything severe. All models show heaviest rain well N of here, but perhaps close to Trinity River, which is well below peak but still above flood stage in SETX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Houston in a hatched hail for tomorrow. I've seen severe (quarter sized) hail just once in 25 years. I was driving home up 45, only time I have ever seen a supercell with an actual wall cloud. No obvious damage to my car, but that was loud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1.26" so far today in Longview and it's not quite done yet. Nice soaking rain. I think tomorrow's severe threat is going to get pushed farther south/east again. Models not looking impressive (IMO) due to lingering precip tonight/tomorrow morning across areas of eastern Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 8 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Houston in a hatched hail for tomorrow. I've seen severe (quarter sized) hail just once in 25 years. I was driving home up 45, only time I have ever seen a supercell with an actual wall cloud. No obvious damage to my car, but that was loud. Already 3" to 5" have rain fall in some areas north of Houston in the last 24 hours. NWS has flood watches from the Florida Panhandle to Dallas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Quote THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. note: 5% tornado outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 I-10 special today from San Antonio through Houston later mostly for wind/very large hail. Ended up with 1.49" yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 On 5/9/2024 at 3:55 PM, Chargers09 said: That’s just Texas weather lol I suppose...but this early in the season? Any Heat Index above 95F is horrible imo, so yes I'm biased. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 Finally cashed in on some actual convective action down here Monday. Nothing severe or any hail where I was (despite the impressive sig severe & hail index parameters on 12z CRP sounding Monday morning), but was still a decent thunder show & actual rainfall. Seeing a fairly good amount of severe wind & hail (a few near 3” diameter) reports from San Antonio area & south on SPC reports for Monday. Also got that nice little ‘cool’ front (that was stalled up around San Antonio - Houston area) to top it off tonight after all the storms moved offshore before sunset, and got a renewed northwest wind after nightfall. Slightly lower DP comfort of course, not lasting here after today (Tuesday), but it’s definitely better now outside tonight than it had been literally all last week, but also for a change, no haze from agricultural burn smoke down south (Central America region) like there had been since the start of the month. - - - Looks like thunder action will be picking up again in state later this week on Thursday. I should also be able to cash in again some too as long as the better shortwave energy doesn’t track too far off to my north like it had been the past 2 weeks. Corpus NWS office mentioned in Monday afternoon AFD, up to 2.5 in. PW around the coast Thursday. Seeing that on latest Euro run tonight, but not as high on latest GFS. But, if 2.5” verifies, that’d definitely be way above normal for mid May anywhere in the state. And would obviously cause more flash flooding. Especially of course, in ETX with such very deep column moisture. ** Edit: GFS going as high as 2.6” PW on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 00z GFS in particular is looking quite torchy for the Southern Plains starting this weekend through the end of May. Obviously the models will continue to struggle with the exact details over the next several days and potential MCS along the edges will complicate things the further north one is, but with a deeply -PNA and the MJO headed into Phase 4, the signal pattern-wise for that well-advertised Mexican heat ridge to expand/settle NE is definitely there. And with it in all likelihood being a dirty ridge, it's going to be an oppressively muggy one too (similar to last June). For the folks down in South/Central Texas, better savor the last of your widespread rain / cloud cover chances this week while you can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Yesterday was a weird day with a couple of rounds of severe weather for South Texas. The first round was much earlier in the afternoon or morning. The enhanced risk seems to have been pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 59 minutes ago, Chinook said: Yesterday was a weird day with a couple of rounds of severe weather for South Texas. The first round was much earlier in the afternoon or morning. The enhanced risk seems to have been pretty good. The enhanced risk was pretty good, but the slight risk extending up towards Texarkana was a bust. Models never really showed much north of I-10 in TX and LA, due to the substantial convection across S/SE TX and S LA... and that's what happened. Marginal risk for the northern uncertainty would have sufficed (and still not verify). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 Euro & GFS still trending very abnormally for the time of year, higher on PW Thursday and Friday for SETX (now as high as 2.8 in.). WPC now going with a decent sized moderate flooding risk area on day 3 period today, but also stating a High risk is definitely not out of the question. I can easily see why as both models are also projecting some pretty strong ML shortwave energy going east into ETX/SETX both Thursday & Friday afternoons. There’ll also be parallel boundary (west-east) storm motions, so there’s likely going to be some cell training involved as well. But it’s very likely there’s going to be more MCS activity in the state at least on Thursday, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 It was kind of neat to see 4 or 5 or 6 supercells with hail lined up yesterday from Mexico to Texas to the Gulf of Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 9 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said: Euro & GFS still trending very abnormally for the time of year, higher on PW Thursday and Friday for SETX (now as high as 2.8 in.). WPC now going with a decent sized moderate flooding risk area on day 3 period today, but also stating a High risk is definitely not out of the question. I can easily see why as both models are also projecting some pretty strong ML shortwave energy going east into ETX/SETX both Thursday & Friday afternoons. There’ll also be parallel boundary (west-east) storm motions, so there’s likely going to be some cell training involved as well. But it’s very likely there’s going to be more MCS activity in the state at least on Thursday, either way. PW that high usually happens in August and is usually associated with a tropical wave. 2.8" is fairly rare, even JAS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 On 5/15/2024 at 5:44 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: PW that high usually happens in August and is usually associated with a tropical wave. 2.8" is fairly rare, even JAS. It’s very abnormal either way for mid May standards anywhere in the state. The models might be overdoing the values a little as they’ve trended slightly lower today, but even near 2.5 “ PW pooling south of the frontal boundary (that will be in ETX tomorrow) is definitely still way above normal for this time of year. Models & CAMs honing in on convective or more likely MCS action moving southeast into SETX by late afternoon from NTX. With all the ML energy and surface focus from the frontal/outflow boundaries in the region and mostly parallel storm motion flow to it promoting cell training, along with a decent LL southerly inflow jet from the gulf (pretty strong positive theta advection), could have some actually high rain rates (potentially 5”/hr +), in the strongest storms with PW close to 2.5” further south into Houston and the coast, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said: It’s very abnormal either way for mid May. The models might be overdoing the values a little as they’ve trended slightly lower today, but even near 2.5 “ PW pooling south of the frontal boundary (that will be in ETX tomorrow) is definitely still way above normal anywhere in the state this time of year. Models & CAMs honing in on convective or more likely MCS action moving southeast into SETX by late afternoon from NTX. With all the ML energy and surface focus from the frontal/outflow boundaries in the region and mostly parallel storm motion flow to it promoting cell training, along with a decent LL southerly inflow jet from the gulf (pretty strong positive theta advection), could have some actually high rain rates (potentially 5”/hr +), in the strongest storms with PW close to 2.5” further south into Houston and the coast, also. Models are in fairly good agreement that the counties just N of the Houston metro will see the heavy rain. Or, where they need it least, they get the most. HRRR has some areas where the heaviest rain has fallen getting over 7 inches. W of here in the AUS and SAT areas, enhanced for hail seems likely for storms mid-afternoon. Tornado risk as well with fairly high SigTor's on 3 km NAM in the I-35 corridor in Central Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Models are in fairly good agreement that the counties just N of the Houston metro will see the heavy rain. Or, where they need it least, they get the most. HRRR has some areas where the heaviest rain has fallen getting over 7 inches. W of here in the AUS and SAT areas, enhanced for hail seems likely for storms mid-afternoon. Tornado risk as well with fairly high SigTor's on 3 km NAM in the I-35 corridor in Central Texas. CAMs don’t tend to do well with MCS propagation/evolution southward into southern half of state this time of year (except ARWs at times). Latest Euro 0z run tonight has most plausible scenario for the time of year (May being the most active spring month in TX) and has been doing fairly well with convection since start of year, showing pretty large MCS going all the way down to the upper coast. As long as organized activity is going on in NTX down into ETX earlier today (Thursday), with all the convective/outflow processes upstream the front should be pretty close to Houston by evening. None of the reliable models are showing it but unless shortwave energy tracks much further north or 850mb flow veers more westerly late in the day in SETX, there shouldn’t be any reason why Houston wouldn’t get hit fairly hard (probly Galveston also) as well especially coming in at the right time of day with daytime heating assistance (little/no sfc CIN) also before the event is over around there (or offshore and/or in LA state) by late evening. - - - It’s looking dry now for most of state Friday with the front further south except down here (but everywhere for weekend into next week). I should still be able to cash in nicely once more Friday before things really start to dry out. But the growing influence from the typical furnace subtrop High out west next week might not be that strong or long-lasting as even latest GFS runs are showing some possible MCS activity later next week, thankfully. I’m fairly convinced now this summer, not going to have the kind of hot or rain-free persistence like last summer (except maybe NTX). Especially with any kind of EN not in the cards the rest of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 WPC finally going with a High risk area now in ETX. It’s been a good while since I’ve seen any high risk ERO here in TX. Since 2021 if I’m not mistaken. Currently seeing thunder activity in NTX (west of DFW area) getting its act together going southeast. Overall and all things considered on models since the past few days, it’s looking pretty busy all-around convective wise for ETX/SETX through today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 There's a new tornado watch centered on Houston Quote NWS Storm Prediction Center 240 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread east-southeastward through early tonight along a composite outflow boundary sagging southward across east Texas. The potential for supercells with large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes will increase with new storm development south of the outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 This went in the wrong thread... 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 18Z HRRR would give me a day off (off today for doctor's appointment, and I need a day off) if NW Harris County rainfall verified. HRRR gets excitable with rainfall accumulations, but someone is probably getting 6 inches today/tonight. Major flooding still occuring on the Trinity River at Liberty. Parts of the Navasota, San Jacinto and Brazos are still in flood as well, and the latest rains haven't arrived. Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1152 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Thu May 16 2024 - 12Z Fri May 17 2024 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE PINEY WOODS REGION OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...16Z Update... The premise of the previous forecast remains the same with a Dangerous and Life-Threatening flash flood event forecast across portions of east TX through western LA. The recent trends in hi-res guidance have allowed for a further consensus on where the heaviest precip will occur, and the magnitude of the potential with the 12z HREF probability fields very much outlining the upper end prospects for not only flash flooding, but significantly impactful flooding given the anticipated totals, rates, and antecedent soil moisture for the area(s) of impact. A couple of the probability fields that stand out include; 12z HREF EAS probability for at least 3" is now upwards of 50-80% within the confines of east TX from Trinity county to just across the LA line. Probabilities above 60% for the EAS are statistically significant due to how that probability is calculated and reserved for higher end consensus amongst the hi-res deterministic and time- lagged suite within the ensemble. Neighborhood probability for at least 2"/hr rates have grown in areal coverage through the period with a general 20-40% located from central TX down through the Piney Woods area north of Houston. A bullseye of 50-60% is located across east TX during the late-afternoon to early evening hours across the above area as well, signaling the potential for prolific rainfall within the expected High Risk zone. The last statistically significant probability is the zone of >50% probability for at least 5" based on the 12z HREF neighborhood probability over east TX. 50-70% probabilities encompass the entire zone within the forecasted High Risk, a positive correlation for the potential and current forecast. Precip totals within the latest HREF blended mean are now between 5-8" within the outlined High Risk as well, so the pattern is favorable and becoming inherently agreed upon by the short term guidance. This is a high-end flash flood potential for many across TX through portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley as the complex is expected to translate eastward into the Deep South by the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 I'm still pretty sure the rain will be the bigger story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0276&yr=2024 Large, elongated MCS closing in on Houston. Looks fairly impressive over ETX with a good area of -70 C to -80 C cloud tops embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 He has only 24 followers, but there was (still is) a warning in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 that tornado warning on the squall line is now just 37 miles from Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 The couplet is actually heading for my part of Harris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 this whole tornado warning may in fact be a nasty combo of wind and hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Downtown Houston direct hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 I've been watching webcams, very familiar with SE texas. Big hit, many webcams down and that's rare. Looked wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Someone else posted CC drop near Hockley, TX a few minutes ago with reports of trees snapped and uprooted and at least one house losing a roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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