cstrunk Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0210.html Tornado watch up in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 DFW achieved a high of 91*F yesterday and 95*F today. Today's high ties the record, and it's also the first 95*F+ day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 In addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today. Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 12Z HRRR moves a nasty looking cell right through DFW late afternoon, >4000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 50 knot shear. I'm calling a hail storm watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 13 hours ago, Powerball said: In addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today. Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995. McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 37 minutes ago, cstrunk said: The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas. There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW. While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas. The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Haven't heard of plans for an FWD special sounding yet, but it would be fun to see one. The 12z sounding was impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas. 1 hour ago, Sydney Claridge said: There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW. While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries. 51 minutes ago, Powerball said: The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35. I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 minute ago, cstrunk said: I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing. Will just have to keep an eye on the radar trends at this point. A watch (Severe Thunderstorm) is incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 That one cell moving into Jacksboro is currently warned for Golf Ball Size Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties. I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Seeing pics of tennis balls from the cell NW of the metroplex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 8 minutes ago, radarman said: Seeing pics of tennis balls from the cell NW of the metroplex And that's what the latest warning in Wise County calls for (Tennis Ball Size Hail). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Hard to tell from the haze, but local (IAH, HOU, SGR) airports reporting cumulonimbus or thunder and there are a few cells around on radar. I Nor did HGX morning discussion) didn't think anything would develop locally with the cap in place (15Z RAP sounding for 18Z shows a convective temp of 103F), we'd be looking for storms from Central Texas.. IAH is 88/76. 8.7C/Km 700-500 mb lapse rate on the model sounding. About North Texas, waiting to see when storms develop on the warm side of the boundary. Which is past DFW proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, Powerball said: I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties. I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon). And there is it. Tornado Watch in effect until 9pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Here is the special sounding from north of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 minute ago, radarman said: Here is the special sounding from north of the boundary. As usual, there's that cap... The sounding actually looks less impressive than it did this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Near 70F dewpoints should be enough for a tornado or two in the Metroplex, even on the N side of the boundary although low level shear is near non-existent. I'm guessing the cell E of Abilene is riding the boundary or just N of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 5 hours ago, beavis1729 said: McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May. And it's even worse today. Brownsville is 102/80/124, and McAllen is 107/74/121...just unbearable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 That’s just Texas weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 This storm that produced up to baseball sized hail and, more recently, golf ball sized hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 It just hit the outflow boundary too. Thinking if there is any tornado risk, which is slim right now, it might be a parallel to and south of US 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 The effective front is passing Waco, storms are developing. Tornado warned storms in the Hill Country, radar indicated. Would reach I-35 around sunset, waiting to see if the supercells grow upscale, meaning my part of Texas sees weather tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, Chinook said: This storm that produced up to baseball sized hail and, more recently, golf ball sized hail. Possible grapefruit hailer with that supercell that went just southwest of Fort Worth a little while ago. - - - Lots of hail reports with basically all kinds of diameter all around DFW area so far today. 2 hours ago, Chargers09 said: That’s just Texas weather lol Exactly my thoughts when I saw that McAllen temp info post. Nothing unusual there with 100s by May. Even sometimes as early as March in the past. Not to mention, even Kingsville was easily having that along with HI near 130 last June here around STX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Definitely not dropping the flooding tag (at least for another week or two, possibly not till June). Both GFS & Euro have been stepping up since early this week on rainfall totals for the eastern half with another meandering front involved, into next week. Not surprised at all as in/out heavy rainfall & flood provoking MCS activity is typical for May just about every year nowadays. Especially coming out of a formidable EN winter and what’s already been going on still only being in the beginning of month. ETX rainfall totals for the past 30 days must be either at or very near 30 inches in some spots (like Huntsville area) now in that > 20” white area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 Softball sized hail with a tornado warning for San Marcos. Been to a few tailgates there, Edward graduated last year from Texas State. No jumping in the river tonight... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 Boo Texas state (I’m a UTSA alumni) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 23 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said: Possible grapefruit hailer with that supercell that went just southwest of Fort Worth a little while ago. - - - Lots of hail reports with basically all kinds of diameter all around DFW area so far today. Exactly my thoughts when I saw that McAllen temp info post. Nothing unusual there with 100s by May. Even sometimes as early as March in the past. Not to mention, even Kingsville was easily having that along with HI near 130 last June here around STX. I'd say the 4.0" - 4.5" hail is the largest I've seen on a report during most years. You can easily see why that type of cell was possible based on forecast soundings/ SPC maps for significant hail parameter. (4.5" hail would be a nightmare... In fact it was a nightmare. A long time ago, someone died in Fort Collins Colorado due to a 4" hailstone.) Southern Texas had a heat index of about 120 yesterday and isolated locations in Mexico got over 110 measured temperature. Meanwhile my place here in Ohio was dreary and cold. My old favorite place in Colorado, that is, Estes Park, got snow to 8000 ft as viewed by the national park cams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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