Chinook Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 hours ago, King James said: 8.8 for IKK? No chance I wonder if updated versions of this data set will include realistic spotter reports of.. well, maybe, however much you think Kankakee got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, vortex said: Yeah, idk. Prolly a bit high Bourbonnais COOP is usually pretty conservative Kankakee County... Bourbonnais 7.5 in 0700 AM 01/13 COOP Kankakee 1.4 WSW 5.8 in 0600 AM 01/13 COCORAHS St. Anne 4.5 in 0700 AM 01/13 COOP I guess it makes sense: Could have been close to 6 with the early morning stuff and then a couple over night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Chinook said: I wonder if updated versions of this data set will include realistic spotter reports of.. well, maybe, however much you think Kankakee got. I think it could be right. Maybe that early morning stuff was more than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I invented a new term as a result of this event: BUSTARD Obviously, an actual blizzard did happen n.w. of a given line, and storm performed reasonably well in many areas except greater Chicago, model guidance was relatively poor given actual outcome, primary or n.w. center never decayed or gave way to southern center even as they blended over michigan, and it went over south end of Lake instead of south of lake; all contributing to a bustard for Chicago where a blizzard was expected. It was a bigger bust than just lake-induced higher boundary level temps, that was part of problem, but if Euro pressure predictions had verified, I feel certain that ORD would have reached 12" and rain would have tainted only briefly and near lakeshore. The nam did better than most, in retrospect, perhaps keep it and toss Euro (now a supposed wonder of a.i.)? I realize there are different sources of funding, but if this is any indication, we have little to fear from a.i. domination except endless irritating references to it. I'll consult Alex rather than Euro from now on. ... my idea of going with 80% Euro snows would be better set at 30-40% at least in some areas. Even GFS snows were a bit inflated although better. It is what it is, but an enjoyable event to watch and try to decode, however unsuccessfully. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 hours ago, Chinook said: so you say it missed part of Michigan? Like Flint? The grid forecast for GRR was 8-12 and only ended up with 8” at the very max. Still did fairly well given the duration of significant snow was really only 6 hours verses the 12 hours forecasted. The onset was delayed 2 hours by 850-700 dryness, the dry slot came early, then the lake-enhanced wraparound defo-band that was forecast for this morning never really materialized. Bummed I didn’t get double digits, but the lake effect fluff tonight will add plenty of depth. 15”+ depth seems very possible on top of the super solid 10” base I already have. It’s been a while since we’ve had that kind of depth. GRR is still advertising a convergence band near I-96 with up to a foot. Will see how it goes. It will be much lighter to shovel thankfully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Does anyone know what happened to @BuffaloWeatherConditions in buffalo are insane. Wish we could get an update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, Chambana said: Does anyone know what happened to @BuffaloWeatherConditions in buffalo are insane. Wish we could get an update that group is all on discord now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 54 minutes ago, Chambana said: Does anyone know what happened to @BuffaloWeatherConditions in buffalo are insane. Wish we could get an update http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59936-lake-effect-event-buffalo-bills-playoff-game-impacts/ You probably know Sunday NFL game is now going to be monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, OHweather said: To be fair, I hit send on this a little earlier than these posts: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 248 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 OHZ003-130000- /O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0002.240112T1948Z-240113T0000Z/ Lucas- Including the city of Toledo 248 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Wet snow occurring. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Lucas county. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy wet snow will impact travel conditions through the evening commute. We were aware of the potential for an impactful burst of wet snow in the Toledo area, but yes the advisory came out later than would've been preferable. I had a bit of a gut feeling around 1 PM when TOL immediately dropped to 3/4 mile visibility in snow when precip came in...but since it was still 36-38 degrees across Lucas County, raining in Wood County south of the turnpike, and only sticking to grass in western Lucas County (not in the city of Toledo) I wasn't sure if it'd snow long enough to accumulate 2"+. I have no problem issuing an advisory for less than 4" of snow (our technical advisory criteria) based on impact, but there has to be a line somewhere and I don't want to do an advisory if I'm not confident it'll snow at least a couple inches. We issued a Special Wx Statement for up to 2" of quick snow accumulation and slick road conditions around 1:20. By 2:30 Findlay flipped to snow, precip rates were intensifying, and snow was sticking to roads in Lucas County. It was obvious that conditions would be poor through the evening commute and also that snow accumulations would be a good couple/few inches in western Lucas County, so we went with the advisory at that point. Of course my friend. I have a ton of respect for you guys in a very unforgiving and difficult craft. I was probably too excited to notice the time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 hours ago, vortex said: Yeah, idk. Prolly a bit high Bourbonnais COOP is usually pretty conservative Kankakee County... Bourbonnais 7.5 in 0700 AM 01/13 COOP Kankakee 1.4 WSW 5.8 in 0600 AM 01/13 COCORAHS St. Anne 4.5 in 0700 AM 01/13 COOP 3 hours ago, King James said: I guess it makes sense: Could have been close to 6 with the early morning stuff and then a couple over night The 5.8" is my report. Combination of the morning and overnight snowfall. 7.5" in Bourbonnais seems a bit high, but like vortex said, they're usually conservative. Most snowfall observers around here haven't the slightest clue what they're doing. Anyways, work was a beach today. Westside of IKK had 4-5 foot drifts. Some houses entirely surrounded by those drifts. Quite a challenge for me. And wicked conditions tonight with the snow, wind gusts close to 40 mph, and single digit temps. Arctic fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Did any snow make it thru the night? My parents on the lakeshore have nothing and mostly saw a mix with only a little bit of snow Yeah I still got a solid 3". I was at YYZ today to pick a friend up and there's about 2" on the ground there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 hours ago, Frog Town said: Of course my friend. I have a ton of respect for you guys in a very unforgiving and difficult craft. I was probably too excited to notice the time stamp. Haha it’s all good, I used to be the one making posts criticizing our local office and I think part of it is just not being aware, from the outside, what the thought process was…since it was my forecast shift I don’t mind explaining what my reasoning and thought process was. This was a tricky scenario/low confidence forecast given the mild temperatures, and in hindsight I wished I went with my gut feeling when the snow first started as impressively as it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Ended up with close to 30 inches here. Beast of a storm. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Yeah I still got a solid 3". I was at YYZ today to pick a friend up and there's about 2" on the ground there too. Well aside from about QEW/Gardiner south most of us will have 10 days with snow on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just took my first drive outside the neighborhood after the storm and besides highways the roads are 90-100% covered in snow and ice. With the cold air it should be staying like that for the next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 hours ago, madwx said: Just took my first drive outside the neighborhood after the storm and besides highways the roads are 90-100% covered in snow and ice. With the cold air it should be staying like that for the next week Yeah, not looking forward to the drive to and from work Tuesday (my weekend is currently Sunday-Monday); even though coming home Friday and going in Saturday morning weren't as bad as I'd feared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 hours ago, weatherbo said: Ended up with close to 30 inches here. Beast of a storm. Is it still snowing up there? We are still getting snow here. Somewhere around 2 feet seems like a good guess but with the wind I feel like Hawkeye saying I really have no idea how much has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 hours ago, WestMichigan said: Is it still snowing up there? We are still getting snow here. Somewhere around 2 feet seems like a good guess but with the wind I feel like Hawkeye saying I really have no idea how much has fallen. We are getting hammered here in the Keweenaw. Getting a west flow which favors my area. Just got in from digging out the furnace vent due to drifting. I can't hardly see down the street at times. Now I am waiting for the legal time to blow the driveway. We can't run blowers before 7 am here. Then off to work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Went to bed friday night hearing drip drip outside, then woke up saturday morning and heard the howling wind. As expected, the 4+ inches of extremely wet snow compacted about nearly in half then froze solid, with new wind whipped snow drifting around. Ice everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This is not accurate. I easily had more than 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, Jonger said: This is not accurate. I easily had more than 5 inches. Yeah that yellow area needs to be expanded westward some. I am just not home enough to do the measurements as a spotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Summary for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/13/2024 at 6:26 PM, OHweather said: To be fair, I hit send on this a little earlier than these posts: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 248 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 OHZ003-130000- /O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0002.240112T1948Z-240113T0000Z/ Lucas- Including the city of Toledo 248 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Wet snow occurring. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Lucas county. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy wet snow will impact travel conditions through the evening commute. We were aware of the potential for an impactful burst of wet snow in the Toledo area, but yes the advisory came out later than would've been preferable. I had a bit of a gut feeling around 1 PM when TOL immediately dropped to 3/4 mile visibility in snow when precip came in...but since it was still 36-38 degrees across Lucas County, raining in Wood County south of the turnpike, and only sticking to grass in western Lucas County (not in the city of Toledo) I wasn't sure if it'd snow long enough to accumulate 2"+. I have no problem issuing an advisory for less than 4" of snow (our technical advisory criteria) based on impact, but there has to be a line somewhere and I don't want to do an advisory if I'm not confident it'll snow at least a couple inches. We issued a Special Wx Statement for up to 2" of quick snow accumulation and slick road conditions around 1:20. By 2:30 Findlay flipped to snow, precip rates were intensifying, and snow was sticking to roads in Lucas County. It was obvious that conditions would be poor through the evening commute and also that snow accumulations would be a good couple/few inches in western Lucas County, so we went with the advisory at that point. Glad to see I had good instincts haha! 3 was good timing, it definitely was wild to see the weird cold air solution shown by the models actually play out in real life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Late post but ended up with a little over 7" of cottage cheese imby. Many roads are still kinda dicey between here and my office in Novi. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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