Jan 11-13th Blizzard

[Chicago Storm]

Several 0z EPS members once again go sub-960mb.

Lowest gets down to 953mb.

[andyhb]

Those 00z runs were almost unanimous on a top 5 type snowstorm for Chicago and a wide swath of the Midwest. This thing is an absolute nuke when that shortwave kicks negative tilt and the mass evacuation really intensifies.

The PV streamer into this thing is going to be a sight to behold on near-term guidance/satellite.

[Roger Smith]

LIST of TOP SNOWFALLS (storm totals) first in reverse chronological order:

January 31-February 2, 2015	19.3"
January 31-February 2, 2011	21.2"
January 21-23, 2005	11.2"
January 30-31, 2002	12.0"
February 18, 2000	11.1"
January 1-3, 1999	21.6"
February 10-11, 1981	11.2"
January 13-14, 1979	18.8"
February 6-7, 1978	10.3"
January 25-27, 1978	12.4"
January 9-10, 1977	10.9"
April 1-2, 1970	10.7"
March 25-26, 1970	14.3"
December 22-23, 1969	11.3"
January 26-27, 1967	23.0"
February 23-25, 1965	11.5"
December 22-23, 1961	11.7"
December 19-20, 1960	12.5"
March 2-3, 1954	11.8"
December 14, 1951	10.0"
December 5-8, 1950	13.3"
December 10-11, 1944	10.9"
January 30, 1939	14.9"
December 9-10, 1934	11.3"
February 6-7, 1933	12.7"
March 7-8, 1931	16.2"
March 25-26, 1930	19.2"
December 17-20, 1929	15.0"
March 30-31, 1926	12.6"
January 6-7, 1918	14.9"
January 12-14, 1910	10.2"
February 18-19, 1908	12.8"
December 12-13, 1903	11.6"
February 3-5, 1901	12.7"
February 28, 1900	11.3"
March 23-24, 1897	10.0"
February 12-13, 1896	12.0"
February 3-4, 1896	12.5"
November 25-26, 1895	12.0"
February 6-7, 1895	13.4"
December 27, 1894	10.1"
February 12-14, 1894	11.0"
January 18-20, 1886	14.0"

... and then in order of total snowfall ...             

1. Jan 26-27 1967 ______ 23.0"                           

2. Jan 1-3 1999 _________21.6"                            

3. Jan 31-Feb 2 2011 ___ 21.2"                           

4. Jan 31-Feb 2 2015 ___ 19.3"                           

5. March 25-26 1930 ___ 19.2"                            

6. January 13-14 1979 __ 18.8"                           

7. March 7-8 1931 _______ 16.2"                          

8. Dec 17-20 1929 _______15.0"                           

t9. Jan 6-7 1918 ________ 14.9"                           

t9. Jan 30 1939 _________ 14.9"                          

[katabatic]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Those 00z runs were almost unanimous on a top 5 type snowstorm for Chicago and a wide swath of the Midwest. This thing is an absolute nuke when that shortwave kicks negative tilt and the mass evacuation really intensifies.

The PV streamer into this thing is going to be a sight to behold on near-term guidance/satellite.

I used to live in Chicago and am coming out Thursday to chase - unfortunately the 6z GFS lurched E and SE by a fairly sizable amount and left Chicago with reduced impacts as the center now moves over central Ohio vs. Indy. It's just one model run but don't like seeing that as we get towards showtime. 

[kevlon62]

Goes without saying but a really high end solution from the Euro. Powder keg of a setup if things break right.

[A-L-E-K]

Final call of 6" on the miss south/east thanks to some lake assist 

[kevlon62]

Anyone catch Tom Skilling mention this yet? One of my favorite memories was him discussing the GHD blizzard as soon as the EURO starting showing it a long ways out.

I remember it and it was the best. Let's send him off with an all-timer.

[nwohweather]

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Goes without saying but a really high end solution from the Euro. Powder keg of a setup if things break right.


 

Sub 970 is just wild inside of 100 hours. When is the last time in winter this has even occurred?

[Lightning]

This has a Jan 1999 look to it for this area.

[sbnwx85]

6z GFS has me down to a measly foot. 

[Radtechwxman]

06z gfs was not a fun run but trend is your friend. Just one run. Overall it's been very amped. Esp the ensembles

[IWXwx]

The normally reserved and conservative Todd H. at IWX is onboard, throwing weenies a bone (or is that a bun) in his overnight discussion.

"...focus turns to potential snowpocalypse Fri-Sat."

"...an anonymously moist return moisture plume as delineated in explicit deterministic qpfs Fri-Sat, highlighting the potential for a blockbuster snowstorm for much of the area."

When he's all in, I'm all in.

[SolidIcewx]

I’m not too worried about totals. 6” and blizzard conditions is more than enough for me

[mimillman]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Final call of 6" on the miss south/east thanks to some lake assist 

I’ll take the under 

[King James]

Think I’ll be busting out the shovel for this one. First shovel in 23 months

[SolidIcewx]

Man this would slap the DTX crew

[Chicago916]

If anyone wants a laugh, check the early SREF spread in snow totals ... 1in to 20in and still snowing possibly.

[Stebo]

Definitely don't like the Euro overamplified look, but I will say it was overamplified with the current system at this junction too. The GFS is probably a more reasonable solution just because the rarity of getting a low as strong as the Euro that far south and the GFS did pretty well with the current system where as a lot of other models had the low further north.

[geddyweather]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Definitely don't like the Euro overamplified look, but I will say it was overamplified with the current system at this junction too. The GFS is probably a more reasonable solution just because the rarity of getting a low as strong as the Euro that far south and the GFS did pretty well with the current system where as a lot of other models had the low further north.

Been wondering this the whole time tbh. As much fun as it's been to watch, the climatology part of my brain has been rattling with the fact that it's just so unusual to see such an amplified system in that part of the region. Not saying it couldn't happen, but given the current background state (system today + disturbance Thursday + eastern ridging possibly playing a hand too) and past history, does it make sense?

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Been wondering this the whole time tbh. As much fun as it's been to watch, the climatology part of my brain has been rattling with the fact that it's just so unusual to see such an amplified system in that part of the region. Not saying it couldn't happen, but given the current background state (system today + disturbance Thursday + eastern ridging possibly playing a hand too) and past history, does it make sense?

Yeah I am not saying it can't happen either but looking at how the models handled the current system one would have to think the Euro is overcooked.

[A-L-E-K]

[michsnowfreak]

I thought this was interesting from DTX:

Still early to expect high forecast confidence as the
event appears dependent on the interaction of a strong shortwave
through Mexico and very strong trough digging southward across the
Canadian Rockies. What is interesting is that both of these
potential vorticity maxima appear to be born out of a Pacific trough
sometime Wednesday. The potential exists for heavy snowfall across
the area and significant winter impacts this weekend.

 

[SolidIcewx]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I thought this was interesting from DTX:

Still early to expect high forecast confidence as the
event appears dependent on the interaction of a strong shortwave
through Mexico and very strong trough digging southward across the
Canadian Rockies. What is interesting is that both of these
potential vorticity maxima appear to be born out of a Pacific trough
sometime Wednesday. The potential exists for heavy snowfall across
the area and significant winter impacts this weekend.

 

What would be a good analog for this storm? Seems like it might get moisture from Gulf and Atlantic 

[Radtechwxman]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Definitely don't like the Euro overamplified look, but I will say it was overamplified with the current system at this junction too. The GFS is probably a more reasonable solution just because the rarity of getting a low as strong as the Euro that far south and the GFS did pretty well with the current system where as a lot of other models had the low further north.

Hoping it won't end up more suppressed like the 06z gfs run and miss a lot of the nw subforum. Need a nice spread the wealth storm for us. 

[A-L-E-K]

NAM has a spread the wealth look many would like, hopefully we see slower, deeper, stronger trends win out over the progressive, faster, weaker streak we seem to have going with euro advertised big dogs in this range

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Hoping it won't end up more suppressed like the 06z gfs run and miss a lot of the nw subforum. Need a nice spread the wealth storm for us. 

I would like that too, everyone wins everyone is happy. Today is pretty much everyone loses no one is happy.

[Radtechwxman]

Kinda surprised models like NAM and Euro are showing precip type issues so north with this. Thinking after models resolve this current system and its snow pack it may resolve those issues better. 

[A-L-E-K]

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Kinda surprised models like NAM and Euro are showing precip type issues so north with this. Thinking after models resolve this current system and its snow pack it may resolve those issues better. 

take a peak around 850, the somewhat overstated cold for this system comes a bit later or just in time depending on timing/how u look at it. the antecedent isn't great, certainly nothing those kind of 850 winds can't handle and i don't see some snowpack moving that needle anyways

it's mostly a timing game as always

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

What would be a good analog for this storm? Seems like it might get moisture from Gulf and Atlantic 

Im not a good analog person lol. I can tell you how much snow fell when, but cant tell you the origin of it. I mean, we got 16.7" from a bowling ball type storm GHDII and have had many gulf lows produce the general 6-12.

 

Also, will be interesting to see how LES performs in the storms wake.

[Radtechwxman]

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

take a peak around 850, the somewhat overstated cold for this system comes a bit later or just in time depending on timing/how u look at it. the antecedent isn't great, certainly nothing those kind of 850 winds can't handle and i don't see some snowpack moving that needle anyways

it's mostly a timing game as always

Yeah all valid points man. I haven't dove deep into this setup because I figured models will be flip flopping till this first system moves out. I was guessing the issue was aloft but still surprised the isotherm gets above 0C this north with where the low tracks. But it is a powerful system and models often underestimate WAA. I definitely think the snowpack could set up a nice baroclinic zone for the next system to follow. I anticipate it will track further south than this ongoing storm.