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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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22 minutes ago, Powerball said:

No clue how accurate it is, but DET is reporting straight rain, and MTC is reporting a rain/snow mix.

Was a rain snow mix in Carlton off 275 and got worse as I got into Canton. Became a heavy snow just south of the airport.

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9" as of 20Z at McFarland, WI (near Madison) per a Cocorahs report on GR Level 3.

* Between forecasting and nowcasting; people getting hit posting updates and people complaining they are getting missed/rain, I think this is by far the hottest winter event thread for this sub since I've been on this board (winter of '17-'18 would have been my first here).

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Unless I'm missing something, precip looks to end mostly around here within the next two hours. Maybe some backside snow overnight, and it's a wrap. It's nice that the morning thump actually delivered; it's the only thing keeping this storm from being an L instead of just an L. 

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One big difference in the evolution of this storm system that we are seeing is how the double-barrel SLP/inverted trough feature has played out.

Most guidance, as recently as the 0z runs last evening, had the southern SLP becoming dominated as things transitioned across Illinois and Indiana. Instead, we have seen the northern SLP be the dominant one, thus leading to everything having been shifted a bit north so far out this way.

As we continue on, it does look like the transition to a most eastern dominant SLP will occur as things continue up into Michigan.

US.fronts_20240112_20.gif.1f19a88290dbce6fa370c057fd98285a.gif

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Mostly rain now. Waiting for dynamic cooling to switch everything back to snow. 

Just read the IWX afd and it looks like they at least discussed a blizzard warning for Berrien County overnight but never outright say it.

One other area
of interest on winds will be mixing heights increasing and entering
Berrien County early Saturday morning, but low level winds look to
drop off there as the low level MSLP center moves through there. As
we couple the falling/already fallen snow across the area, there is
a chance that we see 35+ mph and visibility less than 1/2 mile in
these spots. The question will be, can we get 3 straight hours of
these conditions, which is fairly difficult around here. So, have
decided to put wording into the already existing headlines to
indicate that. Power outages with could occur with the pasty snow
and strong wind. With these conditions and the already
fallen/falling snow, N-S roadways will likely have blowing and
drifting tonight providing hazardous driving. The blowing and
drifting snow in addition to the increasing winds will also look
to decrease the visibility also making it a tough drive tonight
into Saturday morning.
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14 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Maybe Stebo can help out but it looks like dry slot of over in INDY is filling in and next wave may stay snow here.  I'm I looking at the radar right?  If that stays all snow, then we are in business.  

I am thinking it should, we do need that dryslot to fill in which it is doing so pretty well.

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