michaelmantis Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 That hole between Elgin and Joliet looks to be trying to fill in. Wonder if I can get greedy and wish for that band between Rockford and Galesburg to park over my area for a while. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, frostfern said: This is frustrating. Doubts creeping in. Don't lose hope - latest from GRR: .UPDATE... Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 The 12Z DTX sounding was very dry below 700 mb with a dew pt depression of 15C noted at 850 mb. That dry air has been fending off snow to some extent this morning but that should not last too much longer given the very strong moisture influx arriving from the south this afternoon ahead of the approaching low. Snow has been developing across northern Indiana and far southern MI with 1/2 mile or less vsbys noted at BEH and SBN and some very encouraging/increasing radar trends are occurring farther south... south of IND. So while recent GRR radar trends are not very impressive and the dry air erosion could continue for another few hours, do not be fooled. The widespread, heavier snow will still all come together by 4 PM, with inch per hour rates snowfall still anticipated between roughly 4 PM and Midnight. Ensemble guidance remains quite strong in this regard so there are no changes to the forecast at this time. Mid level dry punch arrives from the south after 10 PM or so and brings a temporary diminishing trend before additional snow showers redevelop and intensify late tonight/early Saturday around the southern portion of the upper low. Winds will also become relative lighter during the snowfall coverage/intensity lull later tonight when the baggy pressure pattern with the sfc low/occlusion will be overhead... before cranking up again Saturday morning as the low lifts north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Eyeballing ~5" outside in IC. With all the blowing though, that is kind of a crapshoot. Radar looks good for the first time this entire storm, so I am optimistic that we can still reach the 8-10" advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: @Stevo6899 Looking real good for some big time rates later on this evening for us. Things might work in our favor for once...... I'm afraid sleet will mix in but about 50 miles west towards Pontiac into Oakland county may jackpot. Definitely the heaviest snow we get around here as far as rates go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I have some sort of precip falling, but through the window I cannot tell if it is rain or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I have some sort of precip falling, but through the window I cannot tell if it is rain or sleet. Drizzling slightly over here. If whatever precip does develop overhead falls as not rain that'd be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Moderate rain now here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Latest thoughts ... Rather slow improvements will return to n IL as n.w. lobe of dual low is slowly robbed of warmth, better snow rates will return to Chicago after 6 pm and peak around midnight as wind backs to NE then NNE. Further south in IL, done for a while then picks up to moderate snow and blowing snow around 7-9 pm. ... Northern IN holds on to heavy wet snow for a while, dry slots, brief rain/snow mix, eventually N to NW winds bring in lake effect after midnight, blizzard conditions for a while SBN to La Porte. Into w Michigan, slow saturation of surface layers will result in gradual irregular increase in rates until S+ by the time primary low is near FWA and secondary is near s end of Lake Michigan late afternoon-evening, then periods of S+ merging eventually with SW+ from lake effect by morning. That will be the general scenario east to Jackson-Ann Arbor, interval of heavy wet snow likely in Detroit around 5-7 pm and after that intermittent light snow with brief moderate snowfall in decaying lake effect. Wisconsin, apart from some mixing issues at lakefront south of Racine-Kenosha, will get into bands of heavy snow separated by light to moderate, slowly accumulating to reach 12-15 in totals. Winds will increase from northeast and at least blizzard conditions in open rural areas if not all areas. N lower Michigan will rock as discussed in thread. Don't see total bust for MSP but 1-2" blowing around in very cold wind, instead of 4-6" not all that different, would not want to be out in it by tonight (at my location, crystal clear and -8 F at 9:30 PST). Toronto area I would agree with what I read earlier, 5-10 cm this evening, snow, sleet and/or ice pellet showers could include thunder. For many in IL it will be a case of two storm periods and a long pause lasting rest of daylight hours but part two could be quite intense as well. Gradient around secondary low tightens rapidly after about 21z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Snow has begun here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hanging onto snow here. It had looked like another dry swing was coming through, but it’s been refilling with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I have some sort of precip falling, but through the window I cannot tell if it is rain or sleet. Go outside 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: Latest thoughts ... Rather slow improvements will return to n IL as n.w. lobe of dual low is slowly robbed of warmth, better snow rates will return to Chicago after 6 pm and peak around midnight as wind backs to NE then NNE. Further south in IL, done for a while then picks up to moderate snow and blowing snow around 7-9 pm. ... Northern IN holds on to heavy wet snow for a while, dry slots, brief rain/snow mix, eventually N to NW winds bring in lake effect after midnight, blizzard conditions for a while SBN to La Porte. Into w Michigan, slow saturation of surface layers will result in gradual irregular increase in rates until S+ by the time primary low is near FWA and secondary is near s end of Lake Michigan late afternoon-evening, then periods of S+ merging eventually with SW+ from lake effect by morning. That will be the general scenario east to Jackson-Ann Arbor, interval of heavy wet snow likely in Detroit around 5-7 pm and after that intermittent light snow with brief moderate snowfall in decaying lake effect. Wisconsin, apart from some mixing issues at lakefront south of Racine-Kenosha, will get into bands of heavy snow separated by light to moderate, slowly accumulating to reach 12-15 in totals. Winds will increase from northeast and at least blizzard conditions in open rural areas if not all areas. N lower Michigan will rock as discussed in thread. Don't see total bust for MSP but 1-2" blowing around in very cold wind, instead of 4-6" not all that different, would not want to be out in it by tonight (at my location, crystal clear and -8 F at 9:30 PST). Toronto area I would agree with what I read earlier, 5-10 cm this evening, snow, sleet and/or ice pellet showers could include thunder. For many in IL it will be a case of two storm periods and a long pause lasting rest of daylight hours but part two could be quite intense as well. Gradient around secondary low tightens rapidly after about 21z. I'll take what you're selling gladly but I'm a little skeptical of much accumulation later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looking at the trees dripping a bit, just realized this stuff is going to turn into a solid ice cube in the next 24 hours. If it's not shoveled or moved it is staying there a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This stuff is as wet and heavy as anything ive ever cleared. Nasty slush and the snowblower is struggling. We can’t seem to get a nice cold snowstorm anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: 21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I have some sort of precip falling, but through the window I cannot tell if it is rain or sleet. Go outside Fuck that, its cold. But it does appear to be some white rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Already getting some lake enhancement in Rogers City due to the E/ESE wind. Started snowing around noon, winds really ramping up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Absolutely ripping snow at my house SW of Toledo. Radar returns of rain are inaccurate 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Notwithstanding needing the precipitation to switchover to snow in Chicago, the radar trends look pretty good despite the pessimism? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Not sure if it’s a lack of forcing, dry air from the north, a combination, or something else, but the snow band has pretty much stopped advancing towards me. It also looks like it’s falling apart. I’d say 1-2” is a total bust for MSP after what almost all of the cams showed yesterday. I may get lucky with a couple inches on the backside but just to my northwest will probably end up with nothing after models showed upwards of 3-6” all the way into central MN. MPX mentioned in their AFD that the initial wave developed way further south than forecast which meant we didn’t get any WAA snow out of this. Our only hope is some consolation snow on the backside tonight and tomorrow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'll take what you're selling gladly but I'm a little skeptical of much accumulation laterI fully agree. Much of Chicago metro Is done per the HRR. Looks like we get some wrap around overnight but the low rapidly lifts northeast by then. I’d guess maybe an inch of additional accumulation at most per the HRR. Looks like the NAM from 24 hours ago was spot on.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Its finally coming down at a decent rate here. Its a little granular though. Not really sleet but small grainy flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’d expect the warnings to be lifted for the Chicago area this afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
totsata Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The drizzle in the past hour temporarily switched to fat flakes under one of the ‘newer’ radar returns that filled in across N. Cook county. A lot of drip-drip ongoing. Still hoping for a few more surprise inches in the region despite latest short term models and guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Absolutely ripping snow at my house SW of Toledo. Radar returns of rain are inaccurate Good sign for us to your north! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Good sign for us to your north! Underneath the heavy returns now over in Carlton where I’m working. Nothing right now but I know that will change fast Edit: sprinkles starting now as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Getting a rain/snow mix at times. I think we're around 2" but I'll go measure a little later. HRRR seems to be handling things well in this area. If it continues to be right we should end up with another 2-3" before the dry slot moves in for a short time tonight. Then the wraparound should be fun overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: I'm afraid sleet will mix in but about 50 miles west towards Pontiac into Oakland county may jackpot. Definitely the heaviest snow we get around here as far as rates go. There won't be sleet, the warm air isn't aloft its at the surface for us. It will either be snow or rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwalsh1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just finished clearing the drive and its much like Tuesdays storm in that its heavy and saturated, and getting lots of melt at 33 degrees. Currently drizzling at the moment/no frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Getting some light snow, would love for these spotty showers to build into something sustainable as the low swings past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Is the changeover being shown down south legit or just a blip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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