fluoronium Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 29 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: I would love if tonight overperformed like hrrr is showing here. Esp since it screws me mostly on back end precip HRRR is our only hope left lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I must say, I have a pretty good feeling watching radar & seeing lightning strikes galore from STL-Quincy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS continues to run colder aloft resulting in mostly snow for the immediate metro and far more significant totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Pretty nice run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 24 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Kinda shocked Northern MI isn't already under a Blizzard Warning APX is always very conservative, my guess Blizzard warnings go up tomorrow evening through early Sat Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Skilling just mentioned that balloons went up at 6pm so the 00Z runs are first to read. So not sure if that is what led to the colder aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS continues to run colder aloft resulting in mostly snow for the immediate metro and far more significant totals CMC is also really nice. It would be nice to see the Euro come on board but this is a possible outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Takes the low further east and much colder, warning level snows into Detroit now 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 23 minutes ago, mimillman said: CMC is also really nice. It would be nice to see the Euro come on board but this is a possible outcome. HRRR starting to look warmer aloft and more similar solution to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 End of the 03z HRRR is wild. Transfer of energy from one sub-980 Low to another. Like a nor'easter in the Midwest. Secondary Low causes temperatures to crash. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 19 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Takes the low further east and much colder, warning level snows into Detroit now I love that for Chicago ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: End of the 03z HRRR is wild. Transfer of energy from one sub-980 Low to another. Like a nor'easter in the Midwest. Secondary Low causes temperatures to crash. I was about to post this and say the almighty snow bosoms. RIP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This keeps trending towards something more substantial for Toledo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 From LOT .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 The winter storm is now on our doorstep this evening as we continue to monitor upstream trends. Impressive dynamics over a large footprint across the central CONUS are becoming evident via radar and satellite imagery with a blossoming baroclinic leaf across the MO/mid-MS valleys and rapidly developing convection across OK/AR. The congealing area of both custers of upstream convection will align well with substantial moisture transport and deep isentropic ascent into the CWA concurrent with a contracting low to mid-level baroclinic zone late tonight into mid-morning Friday. A resulting impressive F-Gen signal with slowing northward extent combined with 7C/km 700-400 hPa lapse rates yields some concern that 1-2"/hr snowfall will become common within the precip shield well into Friday morning. The embedded convective elements within the precip shield (and perhaps a stray rumble of thunder south of the Chicago metro) supports increasing forecast snowfall totals through at least late morning Friday. The incoming 00Z CAM suite is in surprisingly good agreement that 1hr QPF rates will reach 0.1-0.2" per hour for several hours into the Chicago metro between 4-9am. Even with SLR values potentially as low as 5-7:1, snowfall totals of 3-5" of very wet snow would not be surprising in just a few hours. No changes to headlines were made with the updates as the bulk of increase in the snowfall forecast is within the ongoing Winter Storm Warnings. But we will continue to highlight the potentially very hazardous morning commute across all of northern Illinois and especially within the Chicago metro. Kluber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Getting steady rumbles of thunder here..... Depressing for mid January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 What a dynamic system. If small scale trends like this and a norlun trough hold up I think I could manage 8” with most of the snow piling up as the low pulls away overnight. Winds should be rocking too. 11 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: End of the 03z HRRR is wild. Transfer of energy from one sub-980 Low to another. Like a nor'easter in the Midwest. Secondary Low causes temperatures to crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I hope more precip blossoms south of this initial waa band like hrrr suggests. Otherwise not going to get much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: I hope more precip blossoms south of this initial waa band like hrrr suggests. Otherwise not going to get much at all. Thunderous dud here, early March feel to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Thunderous dud here, early March feel to it. I'm sure that will be me here soon. I don't buy the hrrr output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: I'm sure that will be me here soon. I don't buy the hrrr output You're on the edge of the possibilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Still no real idea how much to go with here. That last storm system really skewed me into a more negative mindset regarding expectations lol. Looks like a good chance at a quick 3-5" later tonight with this first portion. The big question is how will things go tomorrow. At this point I'll just consider whatever we get tomorrow a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 35 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: I hope more precip blossoms south of this initial waa band like hrrr suggests. Otherwise not going to get much at all. Give it time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Sleeting here at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The old Gyro is back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 0z Euro back SE once again. Turning into just an average piece of guidance these days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If any CWA is in the toughest spot right now headline-wise, I'd definitely say it's DTX. Hypothetically, even if snowfall amounts for Metro Detroit were a more conservative 2-4" (instead of taking the current model output verbatim), snowfall rates could conceivably exceed 1" per hour and this would be happening right at rush hour with likely 20-30 MPH wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 53 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Give it time... I know. I'm impatient. Probably because this is the "main event" for me. Precip blossoming in MO and a nice convective feed into this band up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Thundersnow starting to get active! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 DTX went conservative as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Good luck to everyone in the forum area. This looks like an impressive storm for yall. Look like my old stomping grounds in Wisconsin are going to get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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