King James Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Chambana said: Only real ones would come to Champaign and ride out this 1/2” of powder whipped at 50mph. Wild times. Y’all will be missing out. GFS about to break my heart. Recent history suggest I’ll be in the rain with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollydog Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I would take that with ~11" Same! But i know that this will not be straight 10:1 snow. Maybe 5:1? Sucks but hopefully it will be something before the bitter cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, TravisWx said: From APX. Topped off my gas can for the snowblower this evening. Locals already hitting the grocery stores heavy in anticipation of this weekend storm. Enjoy. Should be a good one up there. Much needed for winter sports!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 With the amount of snow and the low ratios, compaction is going to really factor in. Would be interesting if someone had the time to run two snowboards and do an aggregate hourly and storm total measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 48 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: Its like KLOT is taking into consideration the lake but the GFS and some others say screw the lake ? I guess that's the follow up to my original question. Do the global models take into account the relatively warm lake waters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If the GFS is right IWX, grr and dtx would have to adjust up a lot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, TravisWx said: From APX. Topped off my gas can for the snowblower this evening. Locals already hitting the grocery stores heavy in anticipation of this weekend storm. I can't recall a snow fall map with such high accumulations and 50 mph winds in my 37 years. I'll be posting pics and have a cam at my place and two at my parents about 10 min north of Alpena. Ready to be buried! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Okay real question. It's been pondering me a while. How does this system have so much more warmer air with it vs the last? I get trough geometry is a bit different but I still am baffled with the track similarities between this one and last and how this time it looks mostly liquid here. Stronger llj? Deeper cross section of waa vs last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: If the GFS is right IWX, grr and dtx would have to adjust up a lot lol Shhh don't tell them. Any upgrades and it will ruin it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Expecting a 3-day total here in the 2 to 3 feet range. Been down this road more than once living up this way. Probably won't be able to get out to CR 510 for a couple days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 hours ago, Possum said: This feels like a dumb question but can anyone give me odds on a 9:30am flight on Saturday out of Midway happening? I’ve got some nephews in Dallas who are excited to see me, but the thought of trying to dig out that morning and make it from Humboldt Park to Midway just to sit around through delays and possibly cancellation instead of being cozy at home is stressing me out. . Probably bad. Even if the weather is better by then the plane that was supposed to be there may not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 19 minutes ago, King James said: GFS about to break my heart. Recent history suggest I’ll be in the rain with you That's life riding the southern edge of winter storms. Need the buffer zone down by CMI 12-24 hours out, instead of over our heads. Lack of good cold didn't help either. Writing was on the wall a couple of days ago. Better luck next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 look at this vertical motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Ya'll are slacking... No 18z GGEM mention? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said: I can't recall a snow fall map with such high accumulations and 50 mph winds in my 37 years. I'll be posting pics and have a cam at my place and two at my parents about 10 min north of Alpena. Ready to be buried! Alpena has been missed being in the bullseye by many storms in recent years. I hope this is your time!! Enjoy!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Probably bad. Even if the weather is better by then the plane that was supposed to be there may not be. Middle 3rd of the country is pasted with wind advisories or high wind watches. I haven't seen so many issued for some time. Air travel is going to be rough at best the next few days even outside of places that get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mjwise said: Middle 3rd of the country is pasted with wind advisories or high wind watches. I haven't seen so many issued for some time. Air travel is going to be rough at best the next few days even outside of places that get snow. The big issue is if stuff from Chicago gets sent to Detroit and then Detroit overperforms. Jan 1999 blizzard happened like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Ya'll are slacking... No 18z GGEM mention? Stack them deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Ya'll are slacking... No 18z GGEM mention? When was the last time that model was right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: The big issue is if stuff from Chicago gets sent to Detroit and then Detroit overperforms. Jan 1999 blizzard happened like that. How does it look for Thundersnow potential over here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 21z HRRR is really legit with the front end thump, especially from about ORD on westward. 0.60”+ QPF by 15z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 27 minutes ago, mollydog said: Same! But i know that this will not be straight 10:1 snow. Maybe 5:1? Sucks but hopefully it will be something before the bitter cold. . Yeah the 9th storm ratios were terrible. Hopefully we can do a bit better. Yes looks like we will have a good snow base for the coming cold!! Plus some LES to keep flakes flying and fresh looking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: we will have zero otg when the rain hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just waiting on that 250 mile southward shift. Trend is your friend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Chambana said: Just waiting on that 250 mile southward shift. Trend is your friend. I’d eat a crow if that happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Chambana said: Just waiting on that 250 mile southward shift. Trend is your friend. Just now, SolidIcewx said: I’d eat a crow if that happened 0Z ETA and NMM runs will take care of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 DTX-YXU-YYZ all same forecast problem, in warm advection period Friday to late o/n, is it sleet, wet snow or rain and snow mixed?? .. urban heat islands will tend to reduce lying snow in metros, would look for 2-4" totals in cities, 4-6" in rural areas, leftover lake effect top ups but snow belt areas will see 6-12" top ups of 8-12 in storm snowfalls for 14-24" totals. For DTX-YXU-YYZ best idea is to warn of moderate snowfall potentials in cities and bad to impossible driving conditions by tail end of storm in snow belt areas to n and w. Snow 10-15 cm potential north of about hwy 7 in s ON, only 2-5 Niagara, 5-10 GTA, but this could bust on high side if warm advection is weak (never seems to happen in current climate). Deep winter is coming, GFS gradually edging towards Euro solution, but in Euro solution you get trade-off of sure blizzard west, sure warm advection mostly rainfall east, so it's a tossup in DTX-YXU-YYZ zone, I would predict along lines of "intervals of rain, sleet and snow, accumulations 5-10 cm" (2-4 in) and stress the travel problems to n and w of zone since it's a weekend and people will be inclined to plan travel in that direction (I would not want to be planning it, roads are going to be closed in snow belt areas by Sat afternoon-evening and returning south later on Sunday will be problematic even if one does get up to ski or cottage areas). I recall bad accident on 400 north of TO in somewhat similar storm march 18 1973, zero vis lake effect on icy snow-covered roadway, trucks piling into stalled cars, on a Sunday afternoon in southbound lanes. On said occasion, Toronto city mostly (1.0") rain, 1-2" snow, suburban areas 0.50" rain, 5" snow, snow belt 8-12" snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 23 minutes ago, Lightning said: How does it look for Thundersnow potential over here?? Nonzero, especially if that powerband comes through for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ope I see that title change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Today was a whole other kind of crazy and will be going back in at 11pm. Probably won't have enough time to chime in much, but will try to respond on any forecast stuff of note this evening. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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