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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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57 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

To me it's starting to look like a classic Panhandle Hook, especially with that track. I can't think off the top of my head very many times we've cashed in on these systems, Chicago can though

Yea I dont know how a storm to our sw is a classic track for detroit snowstorms. I will say the block that stebo mentions seems to be flexing when the low gets to Indiana. If it can halt the low like the 12z gfs, it could be interesting.

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I dont know how a storm to our sw is a classic track for detroit snowstorms. I will say the block that stebo mentions seems to be flexing when the low gets to Indiana. If it can halt the low like the 12z gfs, it could be interesting.

A panhandle hook is one of the classic snowstorm tracks for us. GHD blizzard 78 and 99 all were panhandle hooks.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

A panhandle hook is one of the classic snowstorm tracks for us. GHD blizzard 78 and 99 all were panhandle hooks.

Yea and while those impacted detroit, areas to the west got a whole alot more snow. Im just at the point where I wanna be in the jackpot zone and I know that's hard to have happen. Panhandle hooks, the significant ones, aren't the best for us. Ghd 2011...

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3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea and while those impacted detroit, areas to the west got a whole alot more snow. Im just at the point where I wanna be in the jackpot zone and I know that's hard to have happen. Panhandle hooks, the significant ones, aren't the best for us. Ghd 2011...

All 3 of those were still great systems here, no need for greed when we have had nothing so far.

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9 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I dont know how a storm to our sw is a classic track for detroit snowstorms. I will say the block that stebo mentions seems to be flexing when the low gets to Indiana. If it can halt the low like the 12z gfs, it could be interesting.

I’m on your page here. Though it is a half decent track for you guys. You have no wiggle room though for any jogs NW 

It’s a bit early but getting ready to toss the towel in over here in the eastern lakes 

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Another wet one for the Ohio crew. Needs a reel east which isn't likely to happen under the current regime unless we get some help from the Thursday system or eastern blocking. Pain.

Scale of deepening on the GFS is incredible. 992 to 979mb in 6 hours in the MS Valley, not something you see everyday.

 

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

All 3 of those were still great systems here, no need for greed when we have had nothing so far.

Yea I hear ya. At the end of the day, this is rehashed every winter. Some are okay with mediocrity and thats cool. The fact we've had nothing so far this winter doesnt alter anything for me. I want a big dog but I know it's hard for detroit to get one. We need a strong low to take a favorable track to our SE, and it needs to be strong enough not to allow a transfer to the coast. It's hard to get that based on our location and our history with the lack of big dogs portays this. Detroit needs a hooker dig and not strengthen until its a bit further east than this potential, or a gulf low that rides west of the apps. The potential issue with this storm is what the canadian is showing. The block halts the low, occluded, and transfers to the coast. That's not the recipe for a big dog. With that being said I know I should be grateful for what we get but I'm just a 40 yr old weenie at heart.

 

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30 minutes ago, Stebo said:

A panhandle hook is one of the classic snowstorm tracks for us. GHD blizzard 78 and 99 all were panhandle hooks.

For us bit further east especially eastern Ohio and further NE, some of our biggest storms are Gulf Lows or storms that track west of the Apps, i.e., Jan 22 or Mar 08. 

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8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This sounding from South Bend, as the low moves past, is pretty crazy.  16c temperature delta, no shear to speak of until you reach 450mb, no inversion layer, and saturation from the ground to the moon.  The lake effect should be massive.

sounding.png

 

IMG_2741.jpeg

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51 minutes ago, andyhb said:

12z Euro still has that slider/weaker look. Looks to track close to Cleveland.

Now with that said, there are a large number of members that are stronger/further north or west than the operational. Hell, the mean is nearly as deep as the operational at 108 hrs.

image.thumb.png.0e374d52c5a8f4f73968bd415203a47a.png

image.thumb.png.e2a7e6919cf86d4b54b5270b3f208827.png

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

All the ensemble means are looking great for Michigan. Only 4 more nail biting days to go.

I didn't think this thing would come SE like it did on the euro. Models struggling, and need this current low to roll through before they hone in on some consistency. 

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19 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Finding it challenging to get behind this with 96 hours until showtime and the 6-run trend northwest with the current system. I’ll come back on Wednesday.

I'm all in. Bet the house, the car and the dogs on this one. Send me to the poor house if this one doesn't hit. 

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34 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Finding it challenging to get behind this with 96 hours until showtime and the 6-run trend northwest with the current system. I’ll come back on Wednesday.

There hasn't been a NW trend with the current storm system in a while.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

There hasn't been a NW trend with the current storm system in a while.

I was referring to the trend that really began Friday and extended through Saturday evening, relating to the current system. It obviously stabilized after that and has shifted back SE some

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So nice to see more active AFDs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
615 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for most of SE Michigan on
  Tuesday as a strong low pressure system lifts into the area. The
  Tuesday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
  and slick roads with lowered visibilities.

* A rapid accumulation of heavy, wet snow is expected between 4 AM
  and noon Tuesday for areas south of I-69. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible
  mainly across the Irish Hills. Temperatures rising above freezing
  will cause snow to change over to rain from south to north from
  late morning into the afternoon.

* Longer duration of snow in the Tri-Cities will bring snow totals
  of 3 to 5 inches there. Lower confidence exists in timing the
  transition to rain here, and a low chance (10%) does exist for
  higher snow totals if snow remains the predominant precip type
  through Tuesday evening.

* The combination of heavy wet snow with southeast winds of around
  30 mph may lead to some isolated downed tree limbs and sporadic
  power outages. Onshore winds will be higher in the Thumb with
  gusts up to 40 mph.

* Strong west winds area expected to develop Wednesday in the wake
  of the storm system. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible
  with the strongest winds from Metro Detroit southward to the
  Indiana and Ohio border.

* A quick hitting clipper will bring the potential for a widespread
  inch of snow Thursday morning.

* Confidence is increasing for another major winter storm late
  Friday and Saturday. The potential exists for significant snow
  accumulations across Southeast Michigan. Strong winds, below
  average temperatures, and lake effect snow appear likely next
  weekend.
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