SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: What in the world... NAM doing NAM things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM doing NAM things Unreal runs on the GFS... Almost 24 hours out and it's showing 0" essentially on the Euro & 4-6" on the GFS for Toledo. This is insane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: I wonder how big of a royalty bump Annie Lennox sees every winter from having her music linked in these threads. Probably getting an extra McDouble with all these hits from the board 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Got to love Accuweather. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/perilous-blizzard-to-thrash-midwest-followed-by-dangerous-flash-freeze/1611131 The storm is on track to deliver 8-12 inches of snow to downtown Chicago, with some neighborhoods possibly facing a scenario in which 12-18 inches may pile up. Blowing and drifting snow on top of that will result in snowdrifts several feet high that can cause vehicles to be stuck on highways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Unreal runs on the GFS... Almost 24 hours out and it's showing 0" essentially on the Euro & 4-6" on the GFS for Toledo. This is insane As much as I want it to happen. I don't recall the last time we were on the east side of a low this strong, and it remained snow for more than an hour or two. Could be ripping for an hour or two if dynamic cooling occurs and I guess we'll have to take it. Hopefully the arctic crap behind it doesnt last too long. The 12z euro snowmap perfectly illustrates the history of how detroit is so close to big snows. Sure the city gets 10+ storms maybe every couple years but the amount that turns out like this one is far greater, maybe 4:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Got to love Accuweather. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/perilous-blizzard-to-thrash-midwest-followed-by-dangerous-flash-freeze/1611131 The storm is on track to deliver 8-12 inches of snow to downtown Chicago, with some neighborhoods possibly facing a scenario in which 12-18 inches may pile up. Blowing and drifting snow on top of that will result in snowdrifts several feet high that can cause vehicles to be stuck on highways. Probably have AI writing for them at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Low takes a slightly more northerly route but the WTOD stay a bit further SE. If I’m LOT, I’m hoisting WSW for the 88 corridor and north, and WWA for the area south. Then just have to see how the chips fall How does the 12Z Euro look especially for Chicago ? Is it similar to the 12z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1-3" on the lakefront, rising to 6-10" inland seems like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 How does the 12Z Euro look especially for Chicago ? Is it similar to the 12z gfs? Bullseye for central and north metro.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, DocATL said: Bullseye for central and north metro. . Lakefront peeps like meet the new storm, same as the old storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Possum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Latest LOT afd hinting at upgrading to a warning this afternoon as long as models don’t shift drastically.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 There's a good consensus on the morning stuff really ripping across NE IL at ~12Z Very strong lift nearly maxing out in the shallow DGZ and then some. Steep lapse rates above 700mb with a hint of some frontogenetic banding. Truly cannot rule out some TSSN in this weenie band. Gonna be snow globing right in time for morning commute. Edit: Also, just looked at bufkit, some near 0 EPV in a large portion of this column for a couple hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Paulie21 said: There's a good consensus on the morning stuff really ripping across NE IL at ~12Z Very strong lift nearly maxing out in the shallow DGZ and then some. Steep lapse rates above 700mb with a hint of some frontogenetic banding. Truly cannot rule out some TSSN in this weenie band. Gonna be snow globing right in time for morning commute. Edit: Also, just looked at bufkit, some near 0 EPV in a large portion of this column for a couple hours. What's your take on how far north the warmth pushes thereafter, if you don't mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 EURO is telling the dreamers to dream. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Sciascia said: Thanks for posting that. To me the Euro and GFS have been similar and consistent lately with this event. I hope it does come to fruition. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 time for backyard call 8". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z hrrr coming in south from the 12z run, which was already on a southward trend. Maybe the GFS and Euro were right again all along. If that’s the case, why are the short and medium range models so bad? Almost useless. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 24 minutes ago, Sciascia said: EURO is telling the dreamers to dream. Boy that's a tight gradient just south of the IN/MI border. Hoo boy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 31 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: Thanks for posting that. To me the Euro and GFS have been similar and consistent lately with this event. I hope it does come to fruition. The Euro amd gfs could not be more different 24 hours out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The Euro amd gfs could not be more different 24 hours out here. I think, Ohio, SE Michigan and Southern Ontario (especially Lake Erie shoreline) are hoping the GFS wins out. It's been consistent with a band of 2-4" an hour rates for a while now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Fun morning commute brought to you by the new RAP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 My wife just asked how much snow to expect. I told her I was calling 8” as my best guess right now for a number. She replied “is that in man inches or real inches” and I have never felt so attacked. 1 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: My wife just asked how much snow to expect. I told her I was calling 8” as my best guess right now for a number. She replied “is that in man inches or real inches” and I have never felt so attacked. Ouch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The HRRR/RAP are both crushers for N IL. TSSN a possibility for sure. HRRR gives us 5-9" just during morning hours... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: I think, Ohio, SE Michigan and Southern Ontario (especially Lake Erie shoreline) are hoping the GFS wins out. It's been consistent with a band of 2-4" an hour rates for a while now. Most of that 2-4"+ will fall within 3 hours with a robust leading frontal band. If it holds up and temperatures are cold enough, it'll be an intense 2-4" per hour rates for 2 hours before it switches to light snow and drizzle lol. Might also be some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, NEILwxbo said: The HRRR/RAP are both crushers for N IL. TSSN a possibility for sure. HRRR gives us 5-9" just during morning hours... This run is going to be a thing of beauty for NE IL. Still absolutely ripping at hr 26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This run is going to be a thing of beauty for NE IL. Still absolutely ripping at hr 26 Probably still some south/east adjustments to be made with it, too. But I think we'd all take this one, please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 hrrr has an eye by 0z when nearly stacked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, A-L-E-K said: hrrr has an eye by 0z when nearly stacked Hurricane eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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