mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Tossing one of the more consistent models thus far is a bold call, although I would not take its snow output verbatim near the lake. That’s more what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 the drying trend across 12z bad for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: the drying trend across 12z bad for everybody It's the too-far-from-the-ocean moisture adjustment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z GFS snowiest run yet for MBY. But most definitely, tossing the snow output as far as I can. We will be lucky to see a consolation inch at the very end. Looks good though for I-80 on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z GFS snowiest run yet for MBY. But most definitely, tossing the snow output as far as I can. We will be lucky to see a consolation inch at the very end. Looks good though for I-80 on north. GFS has been super consistent. I’m sure we’ll get rain but it’s nice the GFS keeps me interested hyper locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Sounds like consensus is to throw out all the models. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 33 minutes ago, Jonger said: Just give me 4+ for the cold. I want to set a decent low for 2024. I am hoping we can get a 6" or so solid/glacier like base on the ground which the LES will freshen up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Lightning said: I am hoping we can get a 6" or so solid/glacier like base on the ground which the LES will freshen up. Temp will probably top out around 35. It's hard to say, but I'm not expecting much now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Jonger said: Temp will probably top out around 35. It's hard to say, but I'm not expecting much now. If we don't lose the snow currently on the ground it should help. Starting from bare wet ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: Sounds like consensus is to throw out all the models. That’s typical though, right? But nah, my contention is throwing away the snowfall output, particularly for this area. GFS always too “cold”. And when you’re on the very southern edge of depicted snow, well you know how that goes 99% of the time. It’s gonna be a cold heavy rain here with a few flakes at the tail end. Farther north and west, looks good. My thinking for most of NE IL north of I-80 has been 6-10”. Hopefully it overachieves for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 50 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Oh what could have been. Final call: 5” Hedging my bets that warm air is going to win out for quite a while tomorrow. Also ratios will be trash when it does snow. It appears the best bands of snow come through as the low is departing and by then it’s too little to late. Lake effect doesn’t seem all that impressive despite a good setup at first glance. Winds will probably shred the flakes apart making for pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Lightning said: If we don't lose the snow currently on the ground it should help. Starting from bare wet ground There's a possibility of something interesting. I think the best spot in Michigan will be around Houghton Lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I also almost always bust high so doing some reverse psychology with my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z Ukie is pretty far east. Jackpots northern Indiana and SW lower MI. FWIW of course… 12z Canadian models went north/west in their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Love having a huge storm incoming that we will basically have to nowcast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I honestly don't know what is going to happen here, but every model at this point but the Euro brings snow to SE MI as dynamic cooling takes effect as the low strengthens and has flow from the east or northeast. I am just a bit gun shy from the complete failure of Wednesday but the difference this time is the precip rates should be much more considerable, compared to the precip rates on Wednesday which were weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z Ukie is pretty far east. Jackpots northern Indiana and SW lower MI. FWIW of course… 12z Canadian models went north/west in their runs. Always loved the English. Tough forecast, innit? Bob’s your uncle. Pip pip cheerio. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Love having a huge storm incoming that we will basically have to nowcast. Fr I like your call of 8ish but this is so silly again, I was hoping for a slam dunk kind of situation just once. Oh well, unless things go super north and warm after all I think we're in a better spot than the majority of posters here sooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, Stebo said: I honestly don't know what is going to happen here, but every model at this point but the Euro brings snow to SE MI as dynamic cooling takes effect as the low strengthens and has flow from the east or northeast. I am just a bit gun shy from the complete failure of Wednesday but the difference this time is the precip rates should be much more considerable, compared to the precip rates on Wednesday which were weak. Yeah early week did not turn out well at all. Would nighttime have a good effect on the cooling? Find it hard to believe that we will be pushing 40-42 at midnight 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Fr I like your call of 8ish but this is so silly again, I was hoping for a slam dunk kind of situation just once. Oh well, unless things go super north and warm after all I think we're in a better spot than the majority of posters here sooo Agree with you 100%. Have some family flying out this weekend from O'Hare and 4 inches of snow overnight Friday with wind AM Saturday is just as bad as 6 inches. So the storm gets to a point where it is bad no matter what. The mixing and flake quality is key I think. Get a few hours of rippage and toss in a cooler airmass behind (different from last storm) and some wind and you'll have more impacts even if we get the same amount around here as the Monday storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Yeah early week did not turn out well at all. Would nighttime have a good effect on the cooling? Find it hard to believe that we will be pushing 40-42 at midnight 1am. Advection will overpower nocturnal cooling. We will warm up, it just depends on which model as to how brief it will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Advection will overpower nocturnal cooling. We will warm up, it just depends on which model as to how brief it will be. At the same time, it seems realistic to think that dynamic cooling will occur in the late afternoon/early evening with those rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The changes these storms make late in the modeling game is unfortunate. Hopefully the NW cheddar curtain areas have a chance for double digits. Don’t think I’ve had that since I moved out here from Chicago in early 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: At the same time, it seems realistic to think that dynamic cooling will occur in the late afternoon/early evening with those rates. Yeah but eventually warm air advection will win out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Lol instead of getting better consensus it's getting worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yeah but eventually warm air advection will win out. Oh I know. I just meant early on. A few hours of temperature spike and dry slot are imminent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Oh I know. I just meant early on. A few hours of temperature spike and dry slot are imminent. The dry-slot on the GFS has Howell as a low spot in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GRR says they will issue updated headlines mid afternoon. Any chance of Blizzard warnings? Quote Regarding the winter storm watch, will look closely at new 12Z guidance and collaborate with adjacent offices before making final headline decisions. Updated headline decisions will come mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Michigander said: GRR says they will issue updated headlines mid afternoon. Any chance of Blizzard warnings? Knowing GRR I would say probably not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 MPX bumped up their snow totals to 4-6” through tomorrow night for the winter storm watch for the Twin Cities. Doesn’t seem like they’re buying into the additional snow on Saturday yet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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