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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

06z euro a little drier. Wonder if it will be like last system where after it occludes deformation zone starts to lose steam. 

it did do that. Got a solid 3" in a few hours and expected several more hours of heavy snow and defo band collapsed like a cheap suit. 

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

The euro is going hard on a 2-3 hour period of rain in the immediate metro between 18-21z tomorrow. 

LOT AFD:

IN FACT, WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO   
UPPER 30S SOUTH OF I-80 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT A   
TRANSITION OVER TO JUST RAIN FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. WE COULD   
EVEN SEE RAIN AT LEAST BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW AS FAR NORTH   
AS THE I-80 TO I-88 CORRIDORS INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES   
BRIEFLY WARM A BIT ABOVE FREEZING.   

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Just now, Weather Mike said:

What would need to realistically happen as these models unfold and the system approaches to allow the metro area to avoid any rain ? 

imo neither of the options that bring snow to the city proper and lakefront are realistic or likely given model trends

-ggem style south and weaker solution that keeps slp well south of the southern lake tip

-perfectly located banger defo with tssn overcoming surface temps

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06z EURO QPF map. In Januarys gone by, 2+ inches of precip at ORD in early January would be setting records. Sadly not the case anymore.

Granted, it would still be like 16-17 inches of snow if it verifies. But wouldn’t break top 3 snowstorms.

IMG_8141.png

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9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

At this point I would start trusting hi res guidance more over globals. 06z hrrr seemed to be finally in line with other models. Rap was still pretty nw. 

Can anyone share one of the most recent high res model snow maps for the Illinois area ? 

thanks 

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35 minutes ago, Baum said:

LOT AFD:

IN FACT, WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO   
UPPER 30S SOUTH OF I-80 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT A   
TRANSITION OVER TO JUST RAIN FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. WE COULD   
EVEN SEE RAIN AT LEAST BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW AS FAR NORTH   
AS THE I-80 TO I-88 CORRIDORS INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES   
BRIEFLY WARM A BIT ABOVE FREEZING.   

Can’t say disagree 

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The differences among the models this close to the event is downright ridiculous. Some of the short range guidance is still over-doing the warm tongue aloft, while others don’t have it at all creating massive differences in snowfall.

It would make the most sense considering the strength of the slp to draw in warmer air at the surface (33-35°) while the low passes nearly overhead here and to the east, with that, there will be rapidly dropping temps on the backside of the low drawing in much colder air at the mid levels and the surface as it moves northeast. If this thing suppresses a little quicker, colder air will be realized sooner thus more snow.

At the end of the day it’s really a crapshoot but around here I’d expect the snow to mix with rain for at least a few hours tomorrow late afternoon and to pinpoint any accumulation depends on how much rain actually does occur. 
 

 

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