Chinook Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 March 10 was my last inch. Maybe I'll drive back to Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I spent no more than a few minutes looking at the NAM today. It's just not worth trying to figure out when it's right when it's usually wrong until much closer in. Wish it had been discontinued earlier. NCEP stopped updating the code for it at least 2 years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Looked like it would slide ENE out of MO, but it flipped the bird and kept driving north towards Bloomington Adjustments early out west are real tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Rapid cooling of Lake Michigan .If we can get another one after the Arctic blast, then the lakefront will be in business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 4 minutes ago, DocATL said: Rapid cooling of Lake Michigan . So what you're saying is that we all need to dump bags of ice into the lake? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 NAM is east in Indiana and Michigan if it matters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 NAM still trying to show good snows north of I-80 even with the odd path. Ends right for the wrong reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 So what you're saying is that we all need to dump bags of ice into the lake?Probably still not enough 🫤. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 If you all want a good met analysis, IWX did a good AFD, they think the models are overdoing the rain and how north the warm front gets 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Verbatim best NAM run locally since 0z last night. But the evolution of that run was…something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: Verbatim best NAM run locally since 0z last night. But the evolution of that run was…something. That same scenario didn't really pan out with the last one tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 NAM definitely an improvement for SE MI. Low seams about 50 miles to the east once it enters MI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Two of the TV stations in South Bend (not mine) kept showing the NAM in their "futurecasts" and using it to point out why they were so worried about the rain. Will be interesting to see how they adjust to tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 27 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: So what you're saying is that we all need to dump bags of ice into the lake? I’ve lived on the lake for the past 5 years or so. This is the first time we’re going into mid January and I’ve seen no ice at all. Not even on the rocks of the shoreline. Would be interested if anyone has a link to data reflecting ice cover on Lake Michigan by year as a comparison. I’m sure it’s not super rare I’m only speaking from my 5 years living here which is why I’d be interested in seeing some longer term data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 RGEM is solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Riding the RGEM here in SE MI thats for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, AWMT30 said: Riding the RGEM here in SE MI thats for sure. Its misleading a bit, it shows snow with a 3/2c surface. Unless it is absolutely coming down and cold aloft, that is rain. I will say it is decent up until 00z but its hard to buy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Its misleading a bit, it shows snow with a 3/2c surface. Unless it is absolutely coming down and cold aloft, that is rain. I will say it is decent up until 00z but its hard to buyShoot you are right I forgot to look at the dynamics of the model. My apologies. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 That being said I think SEMI gained a bit tonight on the models but its is incredibly tenuous and could easily go back the other direction. I would love to be in SW MI for this, they look to get absolutely bonecrushed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Team gfs and rgem till the end. Ride or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 16 minutes ago, Stebo said: That being said I think SEMI gained a bit tonight on the models but its is incredibly tenuous and could easily go back the other direction. I would love to be in SW MI for this, they look to get absolutely bonecrushed. Ready 2 b bonecrushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Skilling showed an IBM GRAF model....wtf is that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: Skilling showed an IBM graph model....wtf is that? In house model? Or is it the GRAF model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: In house model? Or is it the GRAF model? Yeah GRAF.. anyway, rain snow was well south, similar to 00Z GFS . crushed Milwaukee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 0Z GFS is slightly east, helps the Michigan numbers well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Cold air wraps in quicker.. more snow on the cold side. Hopefully that continues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 GFS is starting to hint at subsidence somewhere around the I-80 corridor. I trust it won’t be until showtime that we know exactly where that sets up but someone will get screwed by it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Gfs is remarkably consistent compared to the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Gem is actually southeast as well too, trend so far tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The GEM is further south with its track which allows temps aloft to become much for favorable for LOT including immediate metro. QPF is lower but progged snow totals are higher. Verbatim even downtown would achieve warning criteria snows. Not to mention the track is more favorable for lake enhancement. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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