katabatic Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, RCNYILWX said: As of now that area looks good, but the mesoscale details can certainly augment that, and I know the southeast McHenry Co. area has been somewhat of a local minima the past few winters. WPC in their internal snow total forecast had a large area of 12+ in the northwestern suburbs, encompassing the northern Fox Valley area. The way things fell out in my first cut today, officially came out in the 10-12" range in Algonquin, but admittedly didn't have enough time to put a ton of small scale detail in except for near the lake and current favored rain/snow line. Ratios will certainly favor paste during the day on Friday but things should fluff up decently Friday evening. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Many thanks! I really appreciate your insight. 10 wind driven inches and vodka cold following makes for a helluva weekend. But, if you see a truck with Maryland plates stuck on 90, uh remember me lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS keeping my hopes of buried grass alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro so close to having me in better accumulations. I'm like riding the mixing line. Definitely going to miss the heaviest swath but would be nice to get high end advisory snow or low end warning criteria at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18Z Euro is slightly east and a tiny bit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Man the 18z GFS is absolutely juiced. Widespread 1.5”+ QPF. Even at 8 or 9:1, this would be a widespread foot for most of LOT. With the progged winds, would be a bitchin blizzard 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z Euro is slightly east and a tiny bit weaker It also gets 0c line a bit further north into Cook county and verbatim would be an hour or two of rain for the city and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: If anyone has specific LOT centric questions on forecast stuff from today, ask away and I'll try to reply a bit later. Apologies for the lack of a more in depth meteorological dissertation in the AFD lol - just less and less time available for us on days like this. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Hi, first time long time. What speeds do you think you'll reach on the road driving into LOT on snowy surfaces and will it be a repeat of the other afternoon with large parachutes falling from the sky under 35-40dbz but struggling to accumulate? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The AFD update was great. Nice putting the "Forecast Uncertainty" in there too... As to the timing... You guys were spot on with the N IL impacts of the last storm between 12-4 PM. My daughter's school canceled classes and at 11 am it looked like things were not that bad on the roads. But from 11-3 it just RIPPED here (Northern Kane County in Elgin - 3 miles south of I-90) and the roads were awful. Buses (especially in my rural area) would have had a hell of a time. Looks like the hourly forecast for the next storm has the snow really starting around me by 8 AM Friday and going through the whole day. In your 100% "not representative of the US Government" opinion ;-) it is looking like the second snow day this week for my daughter? I've said it before, your posting here is so awesome. Thanks for taking the time. Thanks for the good feedback on the AFD! Tried something different there with the more limited amount of time I had. Glad to share insight on here over the years too. As far as school Friday, always tough to say how they'll handle the Friday morning part with the more marginal temps. With it being the last day of the school week I guess I wouldn't be surprised at a snow day, or early release even, because things should get more hairy in the afternoon like they did yesterday. Then they have to account for everyone getting home safely, including teachers who might live farther out. There does seem to be less of a break than yesterday did before the ramp up 11am-4pm, and with a warning pretty likely to be in effect. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Thoughts on "less slop, more snow"? Hard to really tell, but looks like precip/dynamics may be shutting down by the time the arctic air gets pulled into the system and profiles cool. Could this be another repeat of Mon-Tue when even Rockford was plagued by marginal temps, inefficient accumulation, mixed precip and lousy snowfall for 3/4 of the storm?I think even more than the temps, the Rockford area was plagued by subsidence holes yesterday between the prominent banding associated with the 700 mb deformation (eastern IA to far NW IL and SW WI) and the band that set up just north of the 850 mb low track and dry slot and hit parts of the interior metro hard. When you have marginal temps and subsidence, it's a recipe for an underperformer. As things stand now, I think the RFD area is in a better spot to avoid that but too early to call, since mesoscale banding is one of the tougher things to pin down, especially at this range of the forecast when the system track is still in flux a bit. Then Friday evening, should still be enough forcing on the back side to wring out as much as a 0.2" QPF while ratios greatly improve. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: I think even more than the temps, the Rockford area was plagued by subsidence holes yesterday between the prominent banding associated with the 700 mb deformation (eastern IA to far NW IL and SW WI) and the band that set up just north of the 850 mb low track and dry slot and hit parts of the interior metro hard. When you have marginal temps and subsidence, it's a recipe for an underperformer. As things stand now, I think the RFD area is in a better spot to avoid that but too early to call, since mesoscale banding is one of the tougher things to pin down, especially at this range of the forecast when the system track is still in flux a bit. Then Friday evening, should still be enough forcing on the back side to wring out as much as a 0.2" QPF while ratios greatly improve. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk If you had to guess precip amounts for downtown what do you think is your call and could that change tomorrow based on future runs of the models or are you pretty set ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Lol no good deed goes unpunished 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 For being the gold standard of mesoscale models,the NAM’s run to run variability is ridiculous.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 So north of I80 and near the shore like downtown you are predicting around 5inches which could be on the high side? Here's the raw storm total forecast output, available at: https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter . The dark blue is 4-6", the light yellow is 6-8", orange is 8-12" and the darker orange is 12-18", in this case between 12-13". For watch purposes today, was okay with this, but certainly might be too broad brushed and how far inland the marine influence extends is a challenging aspect of the forecast. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: If anyone has specific LOT centric questions on forecast stuff from today, ask away and I'll try to reply a bit later. Apologies for the lack of a more in depth meteorological dissertation in the AFD lol - just less and less time available for us on days like this. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk What's LOTs thoughts on pinapple on pizza? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Walked into a Reddit AMA 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This track looks very close to what GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: This track looks very close to what GFS is showing I'm just going to go buy about 50lbs of poly fill and stake it down across the front yard. This has been a depressing 8 days of winter....... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Here's the raw storm total forecast output, available at: https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter . The dark blue is 4-6", the light yellow is 6-8", orange is 8-12" and the darker orange is 12-18", in this case between 12-13". For watch purposes today, was okay with this, but certainly might be too broad brushed and how far inland the marine influence extends is a challenging aspect of the forecast. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Crazy how the lake I assume can reduce amounts and then you go just west a little and you are at 10 inches. That sucks for us near the shore or in downtown. Is there anyway that the shore or downtown can get in that 10 inch range ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I'm just going to go buy about 50lbs of poly fill and stake it down across the front yard. This has been a depressing 8 days of winter....... I certainly had higher hopes for this pattern but should have known the feet of snow was too good to be true. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Crazy how the lake I assume can reduce amounts and then you go just west a little and you are at 10 inches. That sucks for us near the shore or in downtown. Is there anyway that the shore or downtown can get in that 10 inch range ? I'd feel better about it if the lake were colder and the antecedent air mass was 2-4 degrees colder and also colder at 850 mb. Unfortunately paying for the warm December and dealing with issues more common to early or late season storms.I'd say if it really rips, the extent of marine influence could be more muted, but if you're along the shore and probably a mile or two inland if not a bit more than that, experience (yesterday, November 25-26 2018, November 2015) tells us that it's gonna be tough to max out accums there. And as mentioned earlier, including 18z Euro solution, if the 850 mb warm nose temporarily pushes too far north, that'll also make it even tougher to get the higher end accums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 NAM in process of caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 NAM starting to baby step back south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 So it begin... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM starting to baby step back south Precip shield looks so odd. Like it's too far N with the front end and disconnected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM starting to baby step back south Or… just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: NAM in process of caving It’s a messy process 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looked like it would slide ENE out of MO, but it flipped the bird and kept driving north towards Bloomington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Screw the NAM when we have the FV3. This is more like it lol is it showing dynamic cooling as the low deepens or what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 All of LOT is rain at hr 45. That would fuck the forecast a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Crazy how the lake I assume can reduce amounts and then you go just west a little and you are at 10 inches. That sucks for us near the shore or in downtown. Is there anyway that the shore or downtown can get in that 10 inch range ? Rapid cooling of Lake Michigan . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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