King James Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I can’t do another rain storm boys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This should be significantly better than the last system as currently modeled for the immediate metro. 0c 850mb barely gets into southern cook county and has an E/W orientation at the storms peak while the last one had 0c 850 into DuPage and Lake counties. 925mb was also well above freezing in the last storm. I’m not ruling out a jog north which could put that in jeopardy, but as progged it is a different ballgame. Ratios will be very poor, probably 8:1 type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, mimillman said: This should be significantly better than the last system as currently modeled for the immediate metro. 0c 850mb barely gets into southern cook county and has an E/W orientation at the storms peak while the last one had 0c 850 into DuPage and Lake counties. 925mb was also well above freezing in the last storm. I’m not ruling out a jog north which could put that in jeopardy, but as progged it is a different ballgame. Ratios will be very poor, probably 8:1 type. The lake isn't your friend with this storm. It's going to be a white rain downtown more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: The lake isn't your friend with this storm. It's going to be a white rain downtown more than likely. Perhaps with lighter returns yes. Under heavier bands and a deepening low, it should rip and stack quickly. The low is slightly further east and temps in the upper atmosphere are significantly more favorable than the last storm. Granted, the last storm we got nothing, so it’s a low bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, mimillman said: Perhaps with lighter returns yes. Under heavier bands and a deepening low, it should rip and stack quickly. The low is slightly further east and temps in the upper atmosphere are significantly more favorable than the last storm. Granted, the last storm we got nothing, so it’s a low bar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: You love the SREF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 As stated last week, road trip to cmu. 10-20 inches. Bummer to miss out on 2 respectable events in 4 days. It's too bad this midweek storm couldn't pull down more cold air like this weekend one is. Cold and no snowcover, gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: You love the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Troll game still on point. Nice to see. Euro did pretty good with the last storm, 3-4 days out compared to the other guidance. Only problem it has, along with other models, is it’s too generous around the southern/eastern edges of the wintry part of the storm, especially in very marginal air masses. I think I-80 and north in LOT’s CWA stands a good chance at 6-10”. And then obviously up through WI and then MI. IA good for a decent hit of WAA snows. For MBY, it’s a 99% rainer with a few token flakes at the end. Thankfully, this is the final big rainstorm for awhile. I’ll show myself back out the door now… 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: Troll game still on point. Nice to see. Euro did pretty good with the last storm, 3-4 days out compared to the other guidance. Only problem it has, along with other models, is it’s too generous around the southern/eastern edges of the wintry part of the storm, especially in very marginal air masses. I think I-80 and north in LOT’s CWA stands a good chance at 6-10”. And then obviously up through WI and then MI. IA good for a decent hit of WAA snows. For MBY, it’s a 99% rainer with a few token flakes at the end. Thankfully, this is the final big rainstorm for awhile. I’ll show myself back out the door now… We are the kings of cold steady rain. Never should have moved south of 80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Keep scooting west. I need less arctic air for skiing on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 So much potential wasted with this pattern. I received .3” of slush Monday night that melted in 2 hours and Friday looks no different. The cherry on top? Arctic cold and dry for the foreseeable future. Hopefully someone gets in some hotness here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ya, no different for the eastern lakes. Looking near identical to the system that just went thru. Bring back the December pattern haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 19 minutes ago, King James said: We are the kings of cold steady rain. Never should have moved south of 80 There’s a reason snowfall averages increase the further north you go. Alas, northwest suburbs were crying in the 20-21 and 21-22 winters while we were getting hit good. Sh*t happens… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 24 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Troll game still on point. Nice to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 hours ago, Stebo said: Oh yeah totally love it. At this point I'm just going to stop talking about this storm because the minute I say anything it blows up in my face. Congrats Chicago Yep, another one in the books for SEMI and SW Ontario i am afraid. Slush and then rain and then frozen hell with nothing good on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Man the warm nose with this is BRUTAL. The low actually looks to potentially track more se than last one but still showing a lot of precip type issues because of that warm nose. Of course we couldn't get the arctic air in time for this. I'm actually a bit more nervous with this one versus last. Hoping we can see a correction se like with yesterday's storm last second. Same areas that just scored big may do it again with this one. I really hate El Nino winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Radtechwxman said: Man the warm nose with this is BRUTAL. The low actually looks to potentially track more se than last one but still showing a lot of precip type issues because of that warm nose. Of course we couldn't get the arctic air in time for this. I'm actually a bit more nervous with this one versus last. Hoping we can see a correction se like with yesterday's storm last second. Same areas that just scored big may do it again with this one. I really hate El Nino winters. All I’m asking for is 3-4 to at least give it a winter vibe next week vs a frozen wasteland vibe. But this is why model watching is fun. Will see if we get a major change today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 57 minutes ago, mimillman said: I really hope Chitown can stay all snow. At least north of I 80. Let’s see what the 12Z runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I80 north all snow a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 06Z GFS does this weird thing where it moves the low southeast on Friday morning. 992mb over central MO at FH054, 989mb over the AR/MS/TN confluence at FH057. What gives? 12Z NAM looks $$$ for WI and western to northern Lower MI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya, no different for the eastern lakes. Looking near identical to the system that just went thru. Bring back the December pattern haha Amen to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Plan is for me to do the forecast for the storm today. Definitely a risk with ptypes into the metro, though recall that GHD II started out pretty warm too. So hopefully we find a happy medium. The Chicago shore could be a bigger issue again. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Stop me if you've seen this before, but the NAM is a north outlier. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: You had me until you posted this, SREF is garbage and you know it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Stop me if you've seen this before, but the NAM is a north outlier. Not as much as the HRRR, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Plan is for me to do the forecast for the storm today. Definitely a risk with ptypes into the metro, though recall that GHD II started out pretty warm too. So hopefully we find a happy medium. The Chicago shore could be a bigger issue again. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I wonder if you will use the phrase "white rain" for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 LOL at 12z nam. How bout a deformation zone of rain. I think nam may be out to lunch. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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