sbnwx85 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Not a historic run around here but the lake effect can’t be ignored. Going to be a long duration event especially on the west coast of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Not sure I can handle another battle of the WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, sbnwx85 said: Not a historic run around here but the lake effect can’t be ignored. Going to be a long duration event especially on the west coast of Michigan. Would take only a little shift back east for you guys to be in the money at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Would take only a little shift back east for you guys to be in the money at least Certainly not going to sneeze at a foot+ of snow with high winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That uh... 00z GEFS anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Lots of very strong members but varied in location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This one’s hitting the shore tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Looking good for us so far @Stebo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 51 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: That uh... 00z GEFS anyone? One of the few times I would be happy with every member of the ensemble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Another banger run of the Euro. Absolute JDAM missile for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro staying course, I believe. Can't see problems getting cold enough for snow unless it's right beside Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I imagine tonight's LOT forecast discussion -and hopefully many of them in the next few days if we can stay on course- will be save worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro doing that same big warm surge at 850mb. Man I really didn't think I would have any precip type issues with this one. Hoping that can calm some on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 With the snowpack and airmass the warm air issues on the NAM and Euro both seem just odd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: With the snowpack and airmass the warm air issues on the NAM and Euro both seem just odd I thought the same thing. But GFS does it to. But not as long as nam and euro. Just seems crazy to get that north of a warm slug with where the sfc low is tracking. It's south of where current storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Looking good for us so far @Stebo nah, Detroit is out of the game for this one unfortunately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, rainsucks said: nah, Detroit is out of the game for this one unfortunately An eastern shift would put them back in, with the model instability who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 NAM 06z winds up big time about six hours slower and track closer to SBN, GRR. 970 low near GRR. It does look like rather mild air tries to wrap around the center but with that rate of deepening, bands of S+ would likely form almost to center of low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Heard the eurythmics in my dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 06z GFS looks about like NAM but elongates, intense look. Still 72 to go ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Heard the eurythmics in my dreams i think this one maybe money.Even any intial rain/mix will be put to bed quickly. And while have not looked at models typically these systems with incoming cold air should help you with LE on the backend. I'd be more concerned if yesterday's event hadn't ended up SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I imagine tonight's LOT forecast discussion -and hopefully many of them in the next few days if we can stay on course- will be save worthy. actually tame and lame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The atmosphere is pretty similar to the current storm with this one. Idk why you guys think a bust potential isn't there with essentially the same storm again especially in the city of Chicago. Joe is seeing it so is Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: The atmosphere is pretty similar to the current storm with this one. Idk why you guys think a bust potential isn't there with essentially the same storm again especially in the city of Chicago. Joe is seeing it so is Alek. Hopefully can get a few inches out of this. Would be unpleasant to have an arctic air outbreak with barley any snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 13 minutes ago, Baum said: i think this one maybe money.Even any intial rain/mix will be put to bed quickly. And while have not looked at models typically these systems with incoming cold air should help you with LE on the backend. I'd be more concerned if yesterday's event hadn't ended up SE. my miss south (and lake assist) and stebo's wish cast are dead, the freak cutter is happening but you're underestimating temps, antecedent is bad and mid levels look warm. any areas of SN/+SN will be splotchy and we'll be flipping to rain for periods of weaker forcing. I'm hoping we can hold onto a period of high end conditions or tssn with the bombing low but this looks like a palm guy storm for accums 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Hopefully can get a few inches out of this. Would be unpleasant to have an arctic air outbreak with barley any snow on the ground Yes I think a few inches is maybe possible but I can't go above 4" and honestly that might get washed away by rain too, just like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: my miss south (and lake assist) and stebo's wish cast are dead, the freak cutter is happening but you're underestimating temps, antecedent is bad and mid levels look warm. any areas of SN/+SN will be splotchy and we'll be flipping to rain for periods of weaker forcing. I'm hoping we can hold onto a period of high end conditions or tssn with the bombing low but this looks like a palm guy storm for accums It’s been 31 all night here despite gusty N winds and 6” of fresh snow. Antecedent airmass isn’t going to shove this one south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Surface temps will be in the mid 30’s at the start. Sounds very familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, madwx said: It’s been 31 all night here despite gusty N winds and 6” of fresh snow. Antecedent airmass isn’t going to shove this one south where is south, flat, weaker when u need it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: where is south, flat, weaker when u need it Warm December still haunts us...Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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