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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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The lake had nothing to do with the track of either storm system. The lake is also not the main reason for the warm intrusion with each storm system either, that's more-so a storm track issue and lack of antecedent quality cold air issue. Yes, the lake is making things worse in the metro/NE Illinois, but for both storm systems temperatures have even gotten into the mid-30's across much of N Illinois/S Wisconsin...and E Iowa with the first one earlier in the week.
Agree it's not the lake for this one, the lake would've been primarily an issue for the Chicago shore accumulations if the track was more favorable. Riding the line with a marginal air mass and the near term synoptic track being farther north is what did it.

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Shit, I would be giddy with a wind-whipled inch, let alone two, to freshen things up again real quick before the hard freeze. I'd take that and runnn

I’m not sure though because it really loses its punch pretty quickly on the backside.


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16 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Those totals are a huge disappointment.

The warm lake destroyed two potentially great storms in one week.  If the lake temps would have been anywhere close to normal, there would have been two benefits: (1) further south track/warm intrusion for each storm, like N IL often sees in the Spring when warm fronts get hung up south of the lake (2) less of a temp increase from the easterly winds.  Even a 1-2 F decrease would have been huge for both storms.

Could have easily seen 20+ inches widespread across N IL this week...but instead even the best snow areas in the metro area only have 5-8" of water-laden slop on the ground.

Very unfortunate. Probably shouldn't be too upset since there's still snow on the ground and cold temps on the way...but we shouldn't have to worry about lake warmth in mid-Jan.  The warm December continues to haunt us. :axe:

I really doubt lake temperature has any significant impact on the track of winter storms.  The lake only becomes an issue when temperatures are marginal to begin with.  If the air coming over the lake was in the middle 20s, the warmth would boost snowfall. Milwaukee got a boost from the warmer lake temps. If the air is 32 to begin with, then raising the temp 3-4 degrees is a problem.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Though its a different set up, for me this is very similar to the blinding wet snowstorms of Jan 26 & Mar 3 last winter. Trees already sagging.

I work for the power company and that’s been my main concern. I got noticeable sagging here in Canton. I’ll go out and take a measurement when I can. If any rain falls that would help the situation drastically that way the trees only have to deal with wind stress. Also the transition from Monroe to central/northern Wayne county was pretty nuts to experience drive wise. Been poor visibility a 1/4 mile since I arrived back in the area.

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This storm has been a snow dud for a large chunk of east-central Iowa.  Models really struggled with the placement of the heavy band.  A couple days ago it was expected to be sw through northern Iowa, but instead it tracked through southern Iowa and turned north around the Quad Cites.  We didn't get much from the WAA band overnight and accumulation from the defo zone has been iffy today.  A couple hours ago I only measured 3.3" and I probably still have <4".  The HRRR continues to show snow over us through late evening, but radar shows a big dry hole forming and moving into Cedar Rapids, so we may not get much more snow.  Oh well.  We got the brunt of the early week storm and now we get the other end of that.  That's life.

Update:  There is a new 6" report from a few miles north of me.  It's so frustrating watching everyone around me report significantly higher totals when there is wind.  Where are these people measuring?!?  I swear, we could get two feet of snow and my snow board will have 6" on it.  :gun_bandana:

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9 minutes ago, madwx said:

around 9".  drifts are impressive, it's all fractured dendrites now.  wind is steady but will really pick up from the NNW after sunset

Yeah I would not want to be out in the country after nightfall. I went out of town a little bit a couple hours ago on the backroads and it was already pretty bad. It's going to be basically impossible to go anywhere after nightfall once the wind picks up. I'm guessing our totals are pretty similar to yours, maybe a little less. But it is hard to tell at this point. 

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28 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This storm has been a snow dud for a large chunk of east-central Iowa.  Models really struggled with the placement of the heavy band.  A couple days ago it was expected to be sw through northern Iowa, but instead it tracked through southern Iowa and turned north around the Quad Cites.  We didn't get much from the WAA band overnight and accumulation from the defo zone has been iffy today.  A couple hours ago I only measured 3.3" and I probably still have <4".  The HRRR continues to show snow over us through late evening, but radar shows a big dry hole forming and moving into Cedar Rapids, so we may not get much more snow.  Oh well.  We got the brunt of the early week storm and now we get the other end of that.  That's life.

Update:  There is a new 6" report from a few miles north of me.  It's so frustrating watching everyone around me report significantly higher totals when there is wind.  Where are these people measuring?!?  I swear, we could get two feet of snow and my snow board will have 6" on it.  :gun_bandana:

Happy to switch with you if you’d like.

 

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Why the NWS is still calling for 2-3” in the twin cities metro is a mystery to me. I doubt we see 1” and I’m on the east side where totals should be higher. Hopefully I wake up surprised. 
 

Is it policy to stair step down totals instead of just slashing to 0-1” when it becomes apparent?

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