Jan 11-13th Blizzard

[SolidIcewx]

[michsnowfreak]

literally went from horrible sound of rain thrashing the windows to winter wonderland in about 45 minutes.

[Stebo]

Just now, cyclone77 said:

11.3" so far here as of a bit ago.  Snow continues...

Congrats dude!

[DocATL]

Unless I'm missing something, precip looks to end mostly around here within the next two hours. Maybe some backside snow overnight, and it's a wrap. It's nice that the morning thump actually delivered; it's the only thing keeping this storm from being an L instead of just an L. 

An inch or two tops overnight. NWS says things dry out for most of the evening.


.

[Thundersnow12]

R/S line collapsing nicely on CC now to the SE and S across Chi metro as heavier returns move in. 

[nwohweather]

Rippage

[Chambana]

6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

11.3" so far here as of a bit ago.  Snow continues...

You and hawkeye had a great week! Post pics man. 

[mimillman]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

One big difference in the evolution of this storm system that we are seeing is how the double-barrel SLP/inverted trough feature has played out.

Most guidance, as recently as the 0z runs last evening, had the southern SLP becoming dominated as things transitioned across Illinois and Indiana. Instead, we have seen the northern SLP be the dominant one, thus leading to everything having been shifted a bit north so far out this way.

As we continue on, it does look like the transition to a most eastern dominant SLP will occur as things continue up into Michigan.

Very true. HRRR was catching onto this early this AM and so did the Euro eventually but pretty poor performance from globals on timing of secondary taking over.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

11.3" so far here as of a bit ago.  Snow continues...

Well deserved! Enjoy and post pics.

[DocATL]

One big difference in the evolution of this storm system that we are seeing is how the double-barrel SLP/inverted trough feature has played out.
Most guidance, as recently as the 0z runs last evening, had the southern SLP becoming dominated as things transitioned across Illinois and Indiana. Instead, we have seen the northern SLP be the dominant one, thus leading to everything having been shifted a bit north so far out this way.
As we continue on, it does look like the transition to a most eastern dominant SLP will occur as things continue up into Michigan.

Was hoping we would get some lake effect if winds were to come out of the northeast for any prolonged period. Looks like it rapidly shifts to the west northwest.


.

[Malacka11]

3 minutes ago, DocATL said:

An inch or two tops overnight. NWS says things dry out for most of the evening.


.

Shit, I would be giddy with a wind-whipled inch, let alone two, to freshen things up again real quick before the hard freeze. I'd take that and runnn

[michsnowfreak]

Latest RAP keeps snow ripping for several more hours.

[nwohweather]

21 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

31.8 here in Toledo with Heavy Snow and 2.5".  Actually 10 miles NW of Toledo. 

Very heavy here as well. A bit more wind driven as well.

10 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Mostly rain now. Waiting for dynamic cooling to switch everything back to snow. 

Just read the IWX afd and it looks like they at least discussed a blizzard warning for Berrien County overnight but never outright say it.

One other area
of interest on winds will be mixing heights increasing and entering
Berrien County early Saturday morning, but low level winds look to
drop off there as the low level MSLP center moves through there. As
we couple the falling/already fallen snow across the area, there is
a chance that we see 35+ mph and visibility less than 1/2 mile in
these spots. The question will be, can we get 3 straight hours of
these conditions, which is fairly difficult around here. So, have
decided to put wording into the already existing headlines to
indicate that. Power outages with could occur with the pasty snow
and strong wind. With these conditions and the already
fallen/falling snow, N-S roadways will likely have blowing and
drifting tonight providing hazardous driving. The blowing and
drifting snow in addition to the increasing winds will also look
to decrease the visibility also making it a tough drive tonight
into Saturday morning.

That's brutal. Meanwhile off to the east it's pouring snow

[A-L-E-K]

Mixing 

[cyclone77]

Quick pic out back window

 

[Chambana]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Mixing 

Sister is in Saint Charles, she reported the same. 

[wegoweather]

5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

R/S line collapsing nicely on CC now to the SE and S across Chi metro as heavier returns move in. 

Flipped back to snow at KDPA.  We'll see what we get out of the last couple of hours.

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Snowfall totals as of noon…
ORD - 4.4”
MDW - 5.3”
RFD - 4.9”


.

Those totals are a huge disappointment.

The warm lake destroyed two potentially great storms in one week.  If the lake temps would have been anywhere close to normal, there would have been two benefits: (1) further south track/warm intrusion for each storm, like N IL often sees in the Spring when warm fronts get hung up south of the lake (2) less of a temp increase from the easterly winds.  Even a 1-2 F decrease would have been huge for both storms.

Could have easily seen 20+ inches widespread across N IL this week...but instead even the best snow areas in the metro area only have 5-8" of water-laden slop on the ground.

Very unfortunate. Probably shouldn't be too upset since there's still snow on the ground and cold temps on the way...but we shouldn't have to worry about lake warmth in mid-Jan.  The warm December continues to haunt us. 

[CheeselandSkies]

May have been posted already, but blizzard MD out for Iowa.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0056.html

SPC spending more time on winter wx today than anything within what was that Day 3 Enhanced they put out on Wednesday. @andyhb

[hlcater]

Probably 6" out there right now. Flake size has been small to pixie dust during the entire event. Hoping the coherent defo band out west holds on as it translates east. Otherwise, just gonna be pretty light stuff the rest of the evening. Could still pick up 1-2" but over the course of 7-8 hours...

[mimillman]

Those early April snow squalls will be rockin 

[andyhb]

5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Those totals are a huge disappointment.

The warm lake destroyed two potentially great storms in one week.  If the lake temps would have been anywhere close to normal, there would have been two benefits: (1) further south track/warm intrusion for each storm, like N IL often sees in the Spring when warm fronts get hung up south of the lake (2) less of a temp increase from the easterly winds.  Even a 1-2 F decrease would have been huge for both storms.

Could have easily seen 20+ inches widespread across N IL this week...but instead even the best snow areas in the metro area only have 5-8" of water-laden slop on the ground.

Very unfortunate. Probably shouldn't be too upset since there's still snow on the ground and cold temps on the way...but we shouldn't have to worry about lake warmth in mid-Jan.  The warm December continues to haunt us. 

Welcome to a strong Nino winter in a warming climate.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Shredded dendrites falling imby.

[Baum]

30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

we took another L

without question. And the morning thump, which is now a pile of slop maybe a frozen crusty reminder until April.

[Chicago Storm]

9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Those totals are a huge disappointment.

The warm lake destroyed two potentially great storms in one week.  If the lake temps would have been anywhere close to normal, there would have been two benefits: (1) further south track/warm intrusion for each storm, like N IL often sees in the Spring when warm fronts get hung up south of the lake (2) less of a temp increase from the easterly winds.  Even a 1-2 F decrease would have been huge for both storms.

Could have easily seen 20+ inches widespread across N IL this week...but instead even the best snow areas in the metro area only have 5-8" of water-laden slop on the ground.

Very unfortunate. Probably shouldn't be too upset since there's still snow on the ground and cold temps on the way...but we shouldn't have to worry about lake warmth in mid-Jan.  The warm December continues to haunt us. 

The lake had nothing to do with the track of either storm system. The lake is also not the main reason for the warm intrusion with each storm system either, that's more-so a storm track issue and a lack of antecedent quality cold air issue. Yes, the lake is making things worse in the metro/NE Illinois, but for both storm systems temperatures have even gotten into the mid-30's across much of N Illinois/S Wisconsin...and E Iowa with the first one earlier in the week.

[RCNYILWX]

Just woke up and it's unfortunate HRRR did a decent job - obviously something that can happen but knowing when is challenging.

Regardless, the northern low being dominant for longer is what messed up things for us here after the morning thump. With a farther north track you have to adjust everything a bit north and west.

I thought things would be more of a mix between the globals and some of the mesos because I still bought into a favorable enough track of the system including 850 mb low, which resulted in change to rain/mix relatively far north but not far enough.

Certainly can never discount the strength of WAA, but I believe that a with a more favorable SLP evolution, things would've worked out a little better locally by now with phase 2 of the event. Small details make a big difference when the antecedent air mass isn't that cold, which we knew.

Hoping the change to snow happens soon enough to get some new accumulation on top of what will become an impenetrable glacier lol.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[jwalsh1]

Just switched to snow here, but its immediately melting.  34 degrees.

 

[Thundersnow12]

Beavis sounding like a butthead

[RyanDe680]

Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

Beavis sounding like a butthead

LOL.

 

Top post of the thread

[Baum]

22 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

R/S line collapsing nicely on CC now to the SE and S across Chi metro as heavier returns move in. 

yeah mixing in pretty good here