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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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2 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Hope it does because at the rate its moving that dry bubble is going to be crossing lake michigan before the virga currently overhead reaches the ground.  I know its way too early but these things make me pull my hair out.

Why are you looking over there?  The stuff hitting Chicago is going to WI.  The batch of moisture for MI is in the Memphis to Paducah areas currently.

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4 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Not much to say really.  It's all Chicago area right now.  We play the waiting game.  To be honest my excitement and expectations are just hoping to somehow get 6" out of this.  Models are so so on that. 

The HRRR keeps Detroit on the edge. 

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2 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Not much to say really.  It's all Chicago area right now.  We play the waiting game.  To be honest my excitement and expectations are just hoping to somehow get 6" out of this.  Models are so so on that. 

Models are maintaining sub 0 850s through the rain period.  Any ideas why that precip is modeled as rain?  showing rain for 4-5 hours.

 

For sure a waiting game but need faster arctic intrusion to cool things in the column or we are getting rain I think

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5 minutes ago, Owensnow said:

Models are maintaining sub 0 850s through the rain period.  Any ideas why that precip is modeled as rain?  showing rain for 4-5 hours.

 

For sure a waiting game but need faster arctic intrusion to cool things in the column or we are getting rain I think

HRRR has surface temps going into the upper 30s.    Too much warm air at the surface.

image.png.401287ef474cdfb7a2f78b4d0b1bd5ea.png

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This front end thump has definitely not been of lower ratio.

Probably 10:1 ratio, if not a bit higher potentially, as it is blowing around fairly easily.


.

Yeah NIU coop obs at 7am got 6.0 with 0.61 liquid equivalent. 

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Just now, Lightning said:

HRRR has surface temps going into the upper 30s.    To much warm air at the surface.

image.png.401287ef474cdfb7a2f78b4d0b1bd5ea.png

Still trended about 4-5 lower than yesterday. I’ll feel comfy if it can lower a couple more. Hoping for that east shift by 20-30 miles would make all the difference 

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Precip starting to blossom rather rapidly downstream. Would be nice to fill in the hole, maybe keep some snow going for a little while longer. The western dry edge has reached us now but there's some impressive stuff a little south that might be trying to veer off just long enough to clip us again. Winds are still strong, you know the house crunching shakey type.

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1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said:

Still trended about 4-5 lower than yesterday. I’ll feel comfy if it can lower a couple more. Hoping for that east shift by 20-30 miles would make all the difference 

It gets harder as I age to get excited without reservation with marginal events.  Excited yes but I have my A-L-E-X level of reservations on this one!!

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1 minute ago, King James said:

Not a Met but feels like warning criteria down in IKK. Don’t think wife will be able to get out of the driveway. Snow piling up over the wheel wells 

That's quite a surprise considering that area was supposed to be right on the edge of things.

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10 minutes ago, Castaway said:

Power just went out in the neighborhood. Damn it. Hopefully it gets back up within the hour

Also lost power for a few minutes in Buffalo Grove. Power is back on now. Wind is howling….power is flickering again.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That's quite a surprise considering that area was supposed to be right on the edge of things.

Yeah, definitely got lucky. I was up around 4 to catch the first flake and it has been ripping since. Rain / snow line stayed down near Watseka 

 

Really good snow for snowballs. Lots of wind too 

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4 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Why are you looking over there?  The stuff hitting Chicago is going to WI.  The batch of moisture for MI is in the Memphis to Paducah areas currently.

There is some dry over the Ohio valley too, N of the convection.  I said N Illinois but I really meant the whole area.  Just don’t like seeing the initial zone that clobbered Chicago shrink rather than expand.

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Not a Met but feels like warning criteria down in IKK. Don’t think wife will be able to get out of the driveway. Snow piling up over the wheel wells 
We were on the fence there because of concern that transition would be relatively quick followed by a long lull with rain before changing back over. It was a tough call. Put it in the watch and hindsight could've put Kankakee in the warning but wasn't confident enough.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

We were on the fence there because of concern that transition would be relatively quick followed by a long lull with rain before changing back over. It was a tough call. Put it in the watch and hindsight could've put Kankakee in the warning but wasn't confident enough.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Totally get it and appreciate the time you spend here. To me this is a happy surprise 

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4 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

What would your analysis of our area be if I may ask?

An emoji of a man shrugging. Honestly its so changeable that I don't know what may happen. We need to keep the temp down though before precip falls otherwise we may be in the same situation as last event.

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Giant parachutes swirling on whipping winds. Power keeps cutting out but is still on. Cool to see these rates, especially during daylight now. Still not convinced we don’t see some rain today. The snow is so wet the east-facing windows are all covered in icy water from the wind blasting them

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