Baum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 40 minutes ago, rainsucks said: not liking the most recent trends on the HRRR for NE IL. Seems a little hard to believe tho, but I guess we'll see. looking out my window currently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Baum said: looking out my window currently. Told my wife my weather forum turned into a group of guys calling for rain while it snows out their window SMH 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Thunder heard in Edgebrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just woke up. It’s snowing so hard that all of the motion sensor lights in the neighborhood are triggered at the same time. Everyone’s properties are lit up like a prison yard Looks like it’s about to shut off for awhile per radar. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 DTW crew quiet this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, SolidIcewx said: DTW crew quiet this morning Trends actually look good for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 51 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Trends are not good for Minneapolis. Rug getting pulled again? you need a good clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Oak Brook here. Mental alarm hit earlier than normal. Passed out early last night. Awesome rates past hr. Everything looks plastered. Told my gf yesterday that it wasn’t going to start til later on in the day today. Whoops. Text her good morning and no response yet. (sips coffee) I’m just going to stick my guns and say this isn’t even the main event yet/just some freakish frontal that passed through etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 28 minutes ago, King James said: Nah we are going to keep over performing. You and ALEK had us at nothing but rain and look at us now We doing it We shall see. No matter, event already exceeded my expectations. Knew we’d get some front end action, but didn’t expect this much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Stacking at ORD…KORD 121251Z 08018G26KT 1/2SM R10L/3500V5000FT SN FG VV004 00/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1237 PRESFR SLP036 SNINCR 2/4 P0012 T00001006. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looking like 2/3rds of our snow will be this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Kind of upset about the big gap over N Illinois. Is convection robbing the moisture or what? It has to fill in once the low really starts deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Switched to rain here in Kenosha. Hopefully it’ll change back soon. Wind is ripping off the lake tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Trends actually look good for us That’s what it’s looking like. The change over window got a bit smaller. Now only calling for it to get up to 38-39 for an hour before dropping again as it occludes. 12 hours ago was looking like a rise to 42-43 for a couple hours. All I care about is the snow not washing away so it can look like winter next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Massive thunder and lightning here guys. This is sick 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Tornado sirens in the distance here in Edgebrook near Niles border WTH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’ve somehow forgotten: Was that big dry spot forecast on models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Lightning just caught on the weather channel live! That was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Sciascia said: I’ve somehow forgotten: Was that big dry spot forecast on models? don't remember seeing that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: don't remember seeing that at all It has been well modeled by the HRRR. It doesn’t properly fill in until 1-2pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 APX not messing around, I stand corrected. Calling for snow rates as high as 3-4" per hour. With the traffic hitting North today/tonight I could see it getting ugly on i75 and adjacent areas. Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 648 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pattern Synopsis: Just over a year since the 2022 Christmas Eve Blizzard, northern Michigan finds itself on the doorstep of a rare, high impact winter storm once again. Stunning jet dynamics will fall in line as the right entrance region of strong upper-level ridging will couple with the left exit region of a negatively tilted trough. This impressive forcing aloft may pave the way for the associated surface cyclone to undergo true bomb cyclogenesis as it makes a run at 970mb, which would exceed a 24mb drop in 24hrs. As discussed in last night`s short term, ensemble forecast and reanalysis data depict this cyclone as what would be the deepest in a 30 year climatology reanalysis period and a 19 year reforecast period centered around mid-January. Needless to say, this system gets a tip of the cap from the midnight crew at APX. Forecast Details: Very strong warm advection and frontogenetic forcing will lift northward across the state this afternoon and evening, which is expected to generate a band of impressive snow with high snowfall rates that looks to swing into the southeast portions of the CWA in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. Analyzed forcing, forecast sounding profiles, and HREF probabilities all lead to high confidence in snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour -- and perhaps as high as 3-4" per hour at times -- through the evening hours as this band works north across the area. These snowfall rates are most likely along and east of I-75. Anticipated high snowfall rates over a several hour period this evening is expected to lead to impressive snowfall amounts across portions of northern Michigan. Current forecast amounts by Saturday morning are between 10-15" for most areas along and east of I-75 with amounts generally ranging from 6-10" west of I-75 and north of the bridge. Based on latest probabilistic guidance, high confidence (greater than 70%) exists in snowfall amounts exceeding 12" across northeast lower. Low confidence (10-40%) also exists in snowfall totals exceeding 18" across this area by 12Z Saturday, meaning that amounts this high cannot be entirely ruled out for localized areas. While high snowfall amounts are expected, the primary driver of most serious impacts will be very strong winds. East to northeast winds will increase throughout the day, reaching max speeds this evening into tonight. Wind gusts of 35-50+ mph are expected across much of the area during this timeframe, and may even exceed 60 mph at times across wide open areas and along the Lake Huron shoreline. Confidence has continued to increase in high snowfall amounts and very strong wind gusts with most recent guidance. Thus, a Blizzard Warning has been issued for most counties along and east of I-75 including Mackinac Island. While most areas of the CWA will experience falling snow and aforementioned wind gusts, the Blizzard Warning area currently encompasses the area that has the highest likelihood to experience the most extreme impacts from this storm -- focusing on a several hour period this evening through tonight. High snowfall amounts and snow rates combined with very strong winds are expected generate significant blowing and drifting of snow, especially across the Blizzard Warning area. Evening and overnight travel will be very difficult, and perhaps impossible at times across some areas for a time tonight. Drifting on secondary roadways has the potential of reaching the point where some roads become impassible. Other roadways will likely still be very difficult to travel on as continued strong winds recover them with snow, even with diligent plowing. Given the magnitude of snow and winds, power outages will be possible across northern Michigan. It is emphasized that the timing of worst expected impacts -- around a 9 HR period beginning this evening into tonight -- will overlap with both the evening commute as well as a popular travel time for those downstate heading north to try and enjoy winter recreation activities over the weekend. Those looking to travel this evening or tonight should plan accordingly as it will be strongly discouraged. Near-zero visibilities and significant accumulations of snow on roadways will increase the likelihood for accidents and stuck vehicles, creating a dangerous situation for those involved. Be sure to take the necessary precautions today and stay tuned to the latest forecast for any important updates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Lightning just caught on the weather channel live! That was awesome Was Jim Cantore also live on scene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Winds are absolutely howling here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The goods now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Was Jim Cantore also live on scene?Yea, they got it all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 IKK crushed this morning round. At least 4 inches out there I’d say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 This front end thump has definitely not been of lower ratio. Probably 10:1 ratio, if not a bit higher potentially, as it is blowing around fairly easily.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: It has been well modeled by the HRRR. It doesn’t properly fill in until 1-2pm Hope it does because at the rate its moving that dry bubble is going to be crossing lake michigan before the virga currently overhead reaches the ground. I know its way too early but these things make me pull my hair out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Winds are absolutely howling here Sleet mixing in here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 27 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: DTW crew quiet this morning Not much to say really. It's all Chicago area right now. We play the waiting game. To be honest my excitement and expectations are just hoping to somehow get 6" out of this. Models are so so on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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