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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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2 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

End of the 03z HRRR is wild. Transfer of energy from one sub-980 Low to another. Like a nor'easter in the Midwest. Secondary Low causes temperatures to crash.18

I was about to post this and say the almighty snow bosoms. RIP

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From LOT

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

The winter storm is now on our doorstep this evening as we
continue to monitor upstream trends. Impressive dynamics over a
large footprint across the central CONUS are becoming evident via
radar and satellite imagery with a blossoming baroclinic leaf
across the MO/mid-MS valleys and rapidly developing convection
across OK/AR. The congealing area of both custers of upstream
convection will align well with substantial moisture transport and
deep isentropic ascent into the CWA concurrent with a contracting
low to mid-level baroclinic zone late tonight into mid-morning
Friday. A resulting impressive F-Gen signal with slowing northward
extent combined with 7C/km 700-400 hPa lapse rates yields some
concern that 1-2"/hr snowfall will become common within the precip
shield well into Friday morning. The embedded convective elements
within the precip shield (and perhaps a stray rumble of thunder
south of the Chicago metro) supports increasing forecast snowfall
totals through at least late morning Friday. The incoming 00Z CAM
suite is in surprisingly good agreement that 1hr QPF rates will
reach 0.1-0.2" per hour for several hours into the Chicago metro
between 4-9am. Even with SLR values potentially as low as 5-7:1,
snowfall totals of 3-5" of very wet snow would not be surprising
in just a few hours.

No changes to headlines were made with the updates as the bulk of
increase in the snowfall forecast is within the ongoing Winter
Storm Warnings. But we will continue to highlight the potentially
very hazardous morning commute across all of northern Illinois and
especially within the Chicago metro.

Kluber

 

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What a dynamic system. If small scale trends like this and a norlun trough hold up I think I could manage 8” with most of the snow piling up as the low pulls away overnight. Winds should be rocking too. 

11 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

End of the 03z HRRR is wild. Transfer of energy from one sub-980 Low to another. Like a nor'easter in the Midwest. Secondary Low causes temperatures to crash.18

 

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Still no real idea how much to go with here.  That last storm system really skewed me into a more negative mindset regarding expectations lol.  

Looks like a good chance at a quick 3-5" later tonight with this first portion.  The big question is how will things go tomorrow.  At this point I'll just consider whatever we get tomorrow a bonus.  

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If any CWA is in the toughest spot right now headline-wise, I'd definitely say it's DTX.

Hypothetically, even if snowfall amounts for Metro Detroit were a more conservative 2-4" (instead of taking the current model output verbatim), snowfall rates could conceivably exceed 1" per hour and this would be happening right at rush hour with likely 20-30 MPH wind gusts.

 

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