Baum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Today was a whole other kind of crazy and will be going back in at 11pm. Probably won't have enough time to chime in much, but will try to respond on any forecast stuff of note this evening. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk great afd per usual 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 With the amount of snow and the low ratios, compaction is going to really factor in. Would be interesting if someone had the time to run two snowboards and do an aggregate hourly and storm total measurements.I can make this happen.Though, further inland may be more interesting.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Ope I see that title change. Should’ve changed into January gale or white hurricane like the old newspaper articles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I’m gonna go with 2-4” for everywhere west of I-75 with 1-2” east of it here in Toledo. I can’t imagine how bad conditions will be in the heart of this storm, absolutely paralyzing to get those winds with this level of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 MPX went with a WWA for me instead of a warning. Could still end up with well over 6” of snow but it’s going to be thanks to the long duration, not high rates. Looks like we will top out at about 0.5” per hour around here. Good luck to those in the heavier bands. Looks like there should be some persistent 1-2”/hour bands closer to the low. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Things are looking somewhat better for portions of SE MI and I am all for it! Enjoy Chicago Crew! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 18z Euro with the bump NW. Wisconsin gets the goods. up into N-L. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro with the bump NW. Wisconsin gets the goods. up into N-L. Michigan. Pics or it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Slightly out of our jurisdiction but the Bills-Steelers playoff game on Sunday afternoon could be an all-timer with heavy lake-effect snow expected. Rumors are swirling the game could get moved to Cleveland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, weatherbo said: 6-8 imby and 10-12 for my ski hill. Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The Euro is trending much wetter across eastern Iowa. The 06z run had a big dry pocket over my area. The 12z run got rid of that pocket. Now the 18z has us in a wet area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Things are looking somewhat better for portions of SE MI and I am all for it! Enjoy Chicago Crew! I like how “chicago” has become synonymous with “everywhere west of Lake Michigan from Champaign to Green Bay” 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 58 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: DTX-YXU-YYZ all same forecast problem, in warm advection period Friday to late o/n, is it sleet, wet snow or rain and snow mixed?? .. urban heat islands will tend to reduce lying snow in metros, would look for 2-4" totals in cities, 4-6" in rural areas, leftover lake effect top ups but snow belt areas will see 6-12" top ups of 8-12 in storm snowfalls for 14-24" totals. For DTX-YXU-YYZ best idea is to warn of moderate snowfall potentials in cities and bad to impossible driving conditions by tail end of storm in snow belt areas to n and w. Snow 10-15 cm potential north of about hwy 7 in s ON, only 2-5 Niagara, 5-10 GTA, but this could bust on high side if warm advection is weak (never seems to happen in current climate). Deep winter is coming, GFS gradually edging towards Euro solution, but in Euro solution you get trade-off of sure blizzard west, sure warm advection mostly rainfall east, so it's a tossup in DTX-YXU-YYZ zone, I would predict along lines of "intervals of rain, sleet and snow, accumulations 5-10 cm" (2-4 in) and stress the travel problems to n and w of zone since it's a weekend and people will be inclined to plan travel in that direction (I would not want to be planning it, roads are going to be closed in snow belt areas by Sat afternoon-evening and returning south later on Sunday will be problematic even if one does get up to ski or cottage areas). I recall bad accident on 400 north of TO in somewhat similar storm march 18 1973, zero vis lake effect on icy snow-covered roadway, trucks piling into stalled cars, on a Sunday afternoon in southbound lanes. On said occasion, Toronto city mostly (1.0") rain, 1-2" snow, suburban areas 0.50" rain, 5" snow, snow belt 8-12" snow. Thank you for the write up. Should be an interesting afternoon now casting as the GTA and Detroit are right on the line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Don’t want that shift to continue if you’re in N IL or you risk mixing and the dryslot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Don’t want that shift to continue if you’re in N IL or you risk mixing and the dryslot. alek reeling it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18Z Euro furthest west it's been all day 18Z GFS furthest east it's been all day Gotta love the models What do our met friends think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Turn it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Money on GFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 28 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z Euro furthest west it's been all day 18Z GFS furthest east it's been all day Gotta love the models What do our met friends think? Euro is going to score a big one or be big time wrong, most other models have leaned the other way today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro is skimpy with back end deformation snow compared to other models esp further south on tail end. Another thing I noticed is that hrrr last few runs has shown the waa precip staying snow here longer before mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 00z HRRR going to be another hot one for the metro. Widespread 8”+ with the backside just starting to pivot around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 This trough feature extending from the main SLP is an interesting development that we've seen gain traction over the past 12-24 hours. It can enhance precip/snowfall. Folks in the Northeast see significant versions, Norlun troughs, that sort of do the same. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If the wraparound snow comes to fruition like the HRRR is suggesting, double digits easy damn near across all of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z hrrr is very odd. Have a double barrel strengthening low. Both low centers strengthening. One tracks basically over me and the other well se. It changes over precip from east to west. Gets me in a waa screw hole between lows. Not sure I buy that evolution. Very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Only hr 12 and the NAM appears south already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: 0z hrrr is very odd. Have a double barrel strengthening low. Both low centers strengthening. One tracks basically over me and the other well se. It changes over precip from east to west. Gets me in a waa screw hole between lows. Not sure I buy that evolution. Very strange. All of the models have this feature. Look at the animations a couple of posts above. 18z Euro is a little different, in that it has the western low going farther north, like the NAM has been showing. Regardless, kinda interesting how they all have a changeover moving from east to west, to varying degrees. 18z HRRR was kinda the first show this. And then the trough feature that Joe pointed out. I've been out of the main show for a couple of days, but it'll be interesting to watch this all unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Only hr 12 and the NAM appears south already. It is indeed SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 unsurprisingly the CAMs are moving SE this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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