mnchaserguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I'll take the hires Nam. If only the weather was easy aa picking your favorite model run lol. There have definitely been better runs for Minneapolis but I think the 18z hrrr shares the wealth the most from what I’ve seen. I’m happy to see Chicago get their blizzard as long as it doesn’t mean we get completely missed like last week lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z NAM is 0.0" for IKK surrounded on all sides by some accumulation. Perfect. Though honestly, best part is it and the 3k limit the heavy rain to like 0.50-0.75". Can't take much more rainfall around here. River is high. Yards still with standing water from the last deluge. EDIT: Eh, NAM dumps close to an inch of rain in the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I wouldn't trust nam. It did terrible with last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Seems to me that some of this recent uptick in snowfall totals for those within the cold conveyor belt is an increase in coverage of the backside/deformation precipitation. One has to wonder if the general lack of convection further south may play a role in this. Ratios will no doubt be higher in this zone as temps crash behind the low. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 LOT just put up warnings for counties along/north of I-80, advisories for the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 WSW issued for McHenry-Kane-DuPage counties in IL. Note about mix up to I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Seems to me that some of this recent uptick in snowfall totals for those within the cold conveyor belt is an increase in coverage of the backside/deformation precipitation. One has to wonder if the general lack of convection further south may play a role in this. Ratios will no doubt be higher in this zone as temps crash behind the low. That is a good point. Noticed spc has toned down severe threat due to poor thermodynamics and limited moisture return. So less convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Small error in the LOT WSW text in regards to the counties. Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 222 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 ILZ005-012-013-120430- /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0002.240112T1200Z-240113T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0002.240112T0900Z-240113T1800Z/ McHenry-Kane-DuPage- Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, and Carol Stream 222 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow, strong westerly winds, and dangerous travel conditions expected. Total snow accumulations in excess of 8 inches and wind gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee and De Kalb Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may mix with rain up to the Interstate 88 corridor early Friday afternoon. Snow rates may exceed 1 inch per hour at times. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected primarily Friday evening and may lead to areas of blowing snow and very low visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 P&C total snow forecast is 2-4” overnight, 4-8” tomorrow, and 3-5” tomorrow night. If all of that verifies + the arctic air that follows, I’m pretty sure my husky will never come inside again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 P&C total snow forecast is 9-17 inches. If just the minimum verifies + the arctic air that follows, I’m pretty sure my husky will never come inside again.Ricky will tell you the same… Never add up the P+C amounts.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 too late, the numbers have been crunched 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Well in excess of 8 inches does include 9-17. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Ricky will tell you the same… Never add up the P+C amounts. . Just now, A-L-E-K said: too late, the numbers have been crunched I have the power to un-crunch & separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Hope the trend in hi-res data for it to absolutely rip tomorrow AM continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: too late, the numbers have been crunched that white rain is gonna stack nicely there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, wegoweather said: Small error in the LOT WSW text in regards to the counties. ricky's mind going a thousand miles a minute right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Storm what are your thoughts for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: that white rain is gonna stack nicely there. call looking $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I’d be really interested to see how much consideration, if any, was/is being given for a Blizzard Warning. Winds are going to get going. Lots of Wind Advisories around and even a High Wind Watch at IND. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Mt Geos FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: call looking $$$ I’m still taking under for you mate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 King euro gives better outcome because it concentrates energy in eastern center now developing over AR while some regional model guidance opts to keep energy balanced with western center now forming over w KS. GFS and Canadian appear to take a compromise position on balance of development, slowly increasing energy balance into eastern center. This can be seen in concentric appearance on Euro and extended double centered appearance on NAM, as well as in differences in central pressure. Solutions with strong primary energy will deepen faster and all-snow regime will consolidate faster also. Euro deepens so rapidly and intensely that it cranks snow out of all available moisture. I would go with something like an 80% Euro outcome as it could be a bit optimistic on balance issue, but the reduction only applies to areas in doubt, 100% Euro would be applicable on colder side of system. For the tricky se Michigan-nw Ohio-ne IN forecast I would go with rain and thunderstorms to about midnight Friday then a rain-snow mix, a windblown 1-3" ground cover by Sat 15z followed by intervals of blowing snow, final stages of powerful squalls dropping 6-12" further west as low moves away. Storm total forecasts: ORD 12, RFD 14, MCI 12, MKE 15, MDW 7, SBN 7, CMI 4, PIA 5, FWA 3, DTW 2, LAN 10, GRR 18, MSN 14, MSP 4, EAU 10, GRB 12, APN 15 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z rgem not as wound up. It keeps showing all snow for dtw for awhile. Skeptical but if rates can stay heavy, maybe dynamic cooling can deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 A lot of CAMs seem to feature a pretty strong band on the very tail end of the storm, wonder how that would be with strong winds and the cold rushing in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 da stinger 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: King euro gives better outcome because it concentrates energy in eastern center now developing over AR while some regional model guidance opts to keep energy balanced with western center now forming over w KS. GFS and Canadian appear to take a compromise position on balance of development, slowly increasing energy balance into eastern center. This can be seen in concentric appearance on Euro and extended double centered appearance on NAM, as well as in differences in central pressure. Solutions with strong primary energy will deepen faster and all-snow regime will consolidate faster also. Euro deepens so rapidly and intensely that it cranks snow out of all available moisture. I would go with something like an 80% Euro outcome as it could be a bit optimistic on balance issue, but the reduction only applies to areas in doubt, 100% Euro would be applicable on colder side of system. For the tricky se Michigan-nw Ohio-ne IN forecast I would go with rain and thunderstorms to about midnight Friday then a rain-snow mix, a windblown 1-3" ground cover by Sat 15z followed by intervals of blowing snow, final stages of powerful squalls dropping 6-12" further west as low moves away. Storm total forecasts: ORD 12, RFD 14, MCI 12, MKE 15, MDW 7, SBN 7, CMI 4, PIA 5, FWA 3, DTW 2, LAN 10, GRR 18, MSN 14, MSP 4, EAU 10, GRB 12, APN 15 What are your thoughts on the GTA/Niagara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Toss the RGEM. It was awful with the last storm. Suffers from the same cold/snow bias in marginal systems as other models. I knew it was gonna get cold after this storm, but looked at my p&c and it has 0 for a high on Tuesday. That's gonna suck with no snow on the ground. At least the standing water in the yards will be skate-able. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Big swath of blizzard warnings across iowa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now