Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Jesus. Still snowing in N IL at hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: My wife just asked how much snow to expect. I told her I was calling 8” as my best guess right now for a number. She replied “is that in man inches or real inches” and I have never felt so attacked. fatality 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 too bad temps aren’t colder…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I’ll have what she’s having… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Jesus. Still snowing in N IL at hr 36. Go back to your wife and tell her you were wrong... It was man yards! ;-) Not getting too excited yet but starting to see the cancelations for schools, daycare, etc hitting my email... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Got that "calm before the storm" vibe going on out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I’ll have what she’s having… Sorry lakefront, you only get 8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Can I take the buy out option at 8" and run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Possum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This feels like a dumb question but can anyone give me odds on a 9:30am flight on Saturday out of Midway happening? I’ve got some nephews in Dallas who are excited to see me, but the thought of trying to dig out that morning and make it from Humboldt Park to Midway just to sit around through delays and possibly cancellation instead of being cozy at home is stressing me out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Downgraded to WWA here Sadge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Possum said: This feels like a dumb question but can anyone give me odds on a 9:30am flight on Saturday out of Midway happening? I’ve got some nephews in Dallas who are excited to see me, but the thought of trying to dig out that morning and make it from Humboldt Park to Midway just to sit around through delays and possibly cancellation instead of being cozy at home is stressing me out. . @Stebo is your guy to ask but unless this thing flops like a fish there's no way you wouldn't at least be delayed substantially I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Possum said: This feels like a dumb question but can anyone give me odds on a 9:30am flight on Saturday out of Midway happening? I’ve got some nephews in Dallas who are excited to see me, but the thought of trying to dig out that morning and make it from Humboldt Park to Midway just to sit around through delays and possibly cancellation instead of being cozy at home is stressing me out. . Reschedule that flight. Winds alone are going to screw with everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I wish we could just agree to take what the hrrr shows right now. Chicago gets its storm, Minneapolis gets a nice dumping, Michigan gets a nice storm, and a lot of snow in between. This is about a best case scenario run for this sub. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Sorry lakefront, you only get 8” Looking at the depth change map, it seems like areas farther north in Wisconsin get screwed more, possibly due to a longer fetch over the warm water. Temps in downtown Chicago when the 1st wave starts are still near/at freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I’ll have what she’s having… That stings a little. Just love barely missing a massive snowstorm and possible blizzard 17 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Hoping hrrr is overdone with that warm surge. Or changes over sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, tuanis said: Reschedule that flight. Winds alone are going to screw with everything. Lately flights are delayed even with clear calm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: I wish we could just agree to take what the hrrr shows right now. Chicago gets its storm, Minneapolis gets a nice dumping, Michigan gets a nice storm, and a lot of snow in between. This is about a best case scenario run for this sub. . Not really. Lol. Screws the parts of IL that also missed out on last storm. And Ohio Valley really getting the shaft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Upgraded to WSW for 4 to 8 inches with 50 mph winds Friday night into Saturday. Starting to wonder if dynamic cooling and a low track just far enough to the south/east will be enough to get to a big dog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Weenie band in full force on the NAM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Not really. Lol. Screws the parts of IL that also missed out on last storm. And Ohio Valley really getting the shaft. Unfortunately this storm isn’t going to dump snow on everybody. That’s just the reality. The 18z hrrr would give the majority of the sub a nice storm. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Good AFD from IWX: Key Messages for Winter Storm: * Headlines have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in far sw MI and nw IN, a Winter Weather Advisory along and north of US 24, and a Wind Advisory southeast of US 24. * The bulk of the hazardous weather and difficult travel (wind/snow/blowing snow) will occur late Friday afternoon into Saturday. Lesser impacts are expected during the day on Friday, though areas that get into heavier wet snow could see roads become slick and slushy. * Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches in the Winter Storm Warning, 1-5" in the Winter Weather Advisory. Wind gusts up to 50 mph Friday night into Saturday in the Wind Advisory. A classic panhandle hook type winter storm the obvious concern for Friday and Saturday. Latest water vapor loop shows the vigorous shortwave now entering the Four Corners with lee side cyclogenesis commencing near the OK/TX panhandles. This pv anomaly will eventually eject northeast and take on a negative tilt once reaching the Mid MS Valley and lower Great Lakes. This will take place under a coupled jet, while in the low levels intense theta-e convergence/advection and latent heat release favors a rapidly deepening cyclone tracking north-northeast through central IL- northern IN-lower MI Friday afternoon into Friday night. A model consensus favor a sfc pressure center drop to near 975 mb by Friday night, near January records and similar to the Tuesday system. The difference this time around will be the incoming cold air with added baroclinicity and CAA for winds/blowing snow. 12z guidance remained relatively stable regarding track/timing and expected significant impacts from snow and wind. Initial warm conveyor precip lifts in Friday morning into early Friday afternoon, especially west of Interstate 69. Rain/snow line likely sets up near the US 30 corridor in IN and US 24 in OH with excellent moisture transport supporting a localized burst of snow during this time. A marginal temp profile in the lowest 7-8 kft suggest another wet/heavy snow with poor rations and compaction, which should limit accums through early Friday afternoon. Deep UVM/moisture plume and developing trowal on the northern fringe of the deepening sfc low lifts through mid Friday afternoon into early Friday evening with primarily rain southeast of US 24, a mixture of rain and snow over the central CWA, and mainly moderate- heavy snow (rates 1-2"/hr) over far nrn IN and srn MI for a time. Wrap around, wind whipped, snow on the southern fringe of the deep low then becomes the concern overnight Friday night into Saturday morning within the pivoting deformation axis, mainly along and northwest of US 24 where several inches of wind blown snow is expected during this time. Significant blowing snow and reduced vis with gusts well into advisory (45 mph +) expected into at least Saturday morning area-wide as cold air wraps in behind the deep cyclone. The greatest wind potential is still favored southeast of US 24 later Friday night into Saturday morning where a Wind Advisory was hoisted. Additional accums into Saturday will be light, with the exception being in far nw/nc IN and srn MI where lake enhancement will support several more inches of snow and difficult to nearly impossible travel. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 Key Message: * An arctic airmass will settle in with times of headline worthy wind chills (-15F or colder) and periodic chances for lake effect snow showers/flurries. The coldest air of the season will become the story Sunday into next week as a deep longwave trough sets up under high latitude blocking. The next shortwave and potential winter storm in this pattern change continue to favor areas south and east of the local area early next week, though some light snow could graze the area. Period of mainly lake-effect snow can be expected through much of the long period otherwise, mainly our west-northwest flow LES belts near the MI border where impacts/accums are expected at times. Headline level wind chills will be possible starting Sunday night otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Nam continues to be so nw with the low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Lightning said: Lately flights are delayed even with clear calm weather. Flying is truly a lovely experience. As for this storm... lots of dynamics at play and really difficult to make out what will happen, at least locally. The comparison in LOT's AFD to the 1987 heart attack snowstorm was interesting. Like that one, this storm will bomb out quickly. I imagine as that happens rain will quickly flip to snow over a large area. Feels like there are many more surprises to come... hopefully good ones. I really don't know what to expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, tuanis said: Flying is truly a lovely experience. As for this storm... lots of dynamics at play and really difficult to make out what will happen, at least locally. The comparison in LOT's AFD to the 1987 heart attack snowstorm was interesting. Like that one, this storm will bomb out quickly. I imagine as that happens rain will quickly flip to snow over a large area. Feels like there are many more surprises to come... hopefully good ones. I really don't know what to expect. u r in as good as spot as any friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 MKX now has a warning out for all of their counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: Unfortunately this storm isn’t going to dump snow on everybody. That’s just the reality. The 18z hrrr would give the majority of the sub a nice storm. . I'll take the hires Nam. If only the weather was easy aa picking your favorite model run lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks like some good Lake effect Snow in Michigan after the storm passes. But good luck on knowing where the bands will set up until now cast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 31 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Couple interesting runs for our area this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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