mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 40 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: not our event Best result would be the small period of rain is under light returns and doesn’t do too much to what will have already fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Wouldn't trust the HRRR or RAP at this range if my life depended on it. Euro and GFS have been very consistent. Take them to the bank. Only thing you're seeing as we get closer in time is a refinement of the details. And a much more realistic outcome, i.e. them shaving the marginal edges with snowfall amounts. You're going to need residence time in the defo snows to get anything good. On the outskirts of that, enjoy white rain. Final call for here is 1.0-1.5". Of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4:20am LOT graphics: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Not to interrupt the Chicago discussion but on the East side of Lake Michigan it is looking pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: Best result would be the small period of rain is under light returns and doesn’t do too much to what will have already fallen we will have zero otg when the rain hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Sciascia said: 4:20am LOT graphics: What.. My number changed. I want my old number back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Why does NWS Chicago say this:“Theforecast for this storm system continues to be handled best bythe more consistent global forecast models and ensembles(especially the ECMWF and its ensemble members). We thereforecontinue to steer the forecast in this direction. Currently, manyof the higher resolution models such as the HRRR, NAM and RAPcontinue to be northern and warm outliers with the system, andthus, their current iterations are not favored.”By handled best, do they mean most consistent in terms of forecast?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, ducky said: Here's my thoughts for Chicagoland on the upcoming storm... Initial Phase (Late Thursday Evening to Early Friday Morning): The initial phase of the storm is characterized by the incursion of a robust, moisture-laden baroclinic zone, propelled northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This influx of moisture, encountering the antecedent frigid air mass entrenched over the Midwest, sets the stage for rapid cyclogenesis. The isentropic lift, augmented by the lake-enhanced orographic effects of Lake Michigan, initiates a steady snowfall. During these initial hours, light to moderate snow is expected, with accumulations gradually building, particularly in areas of enhanced vertical lift. Peak Intensity (Friday Afternoon through Late Friday Night): As the central pressure of the cyclonic system deepens and tracks northeastward, aligning its trajectory with the axis of the upper-level jet stream, Chicago finds itself within the left-exit region of the jet streak. This positioning is crucial for enhanced upward vertical motion, leading to the intensification of snowfall rates. Model guidance suggests the potential for thundersnow, where convective elements within the stratiform precipitation band could lead to brief, intense bursts of snowfall. Accumulations are expected to be most significant during this period, with snowfall rates potentially exceeding 1-2 inches per hour, exacerbated by the strong northeasterly winds creating blizzard-like conditions and significant drifting. Tapering Phase (Early Saturday Morning Onwards): As the system progresses eastward, advecting the primary moisture feed with it, snowfall intensity in Chicago will begin to wane. The post-frontal environment, dominated by a high-pressure ridge, will usher in drier air, leading to a gradual cessation of precipitation. However, residual cyclonic flow and lake effect processes may continue to contribute to light snow showers, particularly in areas adjacent to the lake. The aftermath of the storm will leave a significant snowpack, with total accumulations potentially reaching or exceeding the forecasted 20 inches in some locales. Appreciate the in-depth review for Chicagoland. It seems reasonable but is this for areas away from the Lake and north of the city ? Lots of talk of 3-5 inches max for city and lakeshore and rain for hours on Friday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 6z guidance generally came in weaker/east for the most part, and slower developing.Weaker/drier/east is a trend you need not want to see in the Chicago metro/NE Illinois. Shall see if it was a one run blip, or if it actually turns into a trend.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Not to interrupt the Chicago discussion but on the East side of Lake Michigan it is looking pretty good. Yes indeed! We've had quite a few epic snow events recently. Had to cancel our ski trip to Boyne this weekend - don't want to drive or ski that wind. Might try for some nordic in the woods on Sunday or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Nice! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z guidance generally came in weaker/east for the most part, and slower developing. Weaker/drier/east is a trend you need not want to see in the Chicago metro/NE Illinois. Shall see if it was a one run blip, or if it actually turns into a trend. . Works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: we will have zero otg when the rain hits Not convinced but wouldn’t be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Nice! GRR hasn't posted any maps yet. I think they are too hesitant to make a call right now. The days long LES after this should really help stack up the snow. Might be time to break out the XC skis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 How much (if at all) does the strength of the wind impact the temps off the lake. I would think stronger winds would actually help our cause then hurt? Seems like last storm that was not much wind which was more of a stagnant steady breeze off the lake and no mixing of air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z guidance generally came in weaker/east for the most part, and slower developing. Weaker/drier/east is a trend you need not want to see in the Chicago metro/NE Illinois. Shall see if it was a one run blip, or if it actually turns into a trend. . But this is my moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2025 will be rocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: But this is my moment At this rate going from 10 inches to 6 inches (or something "more reasonable" if the track does move a bit E) isn't a loss for me given the past few years. The "big one" will be a surprise I'm sure! ;-) If the wind starts up Friday night, just a few inches will be bad. Eurythmics posted often, but for us this is a better song... You Can't Always Get What You Want - The Rolling Stones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 some weird downplaying going on ITT for some reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Still liking 8” imby. Huge upside if things work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If the NAM and long range HRRR and RAP are the only models not showing high totals then that's a good thing. Looks like globals and even HRDPS and FV3 really hammering most of NIL with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If the NAM and long range HRRR and RAP are the only models not showing high totals then that's a good thing. Looks like globals and even HRDPS and FV3 really hammering most of NIL with heavy snow.FV3 was equally as good lower expectations for the Monday/Tuesday system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I could be looking at a bombing January low traveling well to my SE, only to have it nuke my modest snowpack right before the arctic blast hits. This hobby is stupid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 choose your fighter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: choose your fighter My location on the NAM map you posted. Talk about the teeny-tinesy screw hole imaginable... I'm going to try to forget about this thing until the afternoon AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: choose your fighter What a difference this close to the event on these two model runs from Milwaukie to CHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Weather Mike said: What a difference this close to the event on these two model runs from Milwaukie to CHI The screw hole of all screw holes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: My location on the NAM map you posted. Talk about the teeny-tinesy screw hole imaginable... I'm going to try to forget about this thing until the afternoon AFDs. That's actually a local maximum. The blues over the lake are the lower end. Not that it makes the overall map any better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: choose your fighter You forgot option #3: Non Hi-res NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 NAM at hour 60 shows just over 40 inches IMBY and still snowing. I'd be satisfied with half. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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