Harry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 48 minutes ago, Stebo said: That being said I think SEMI gained a bit tonight on the models but its is incredibly tenuous and could easily go back the other direction. I would love to be in SW MI for this, they look to get absolutely bonecrushed. If I see the track east of here/Jackson I'll feel better about that. The saving grace here with the further west track is that the lake effect gets going quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: The GEM is further south with its track which allows temps aloft to become much for favorable for LOT including immediate metro. QPF is lower but progged snow totals are higher. Verbatim even downtown would achieve warning criteria snows. Not to mention the track is more favorable for lake enhancement. Lake enhancement gets cranking for MKE. Could see that for a bit early Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Gfs is remarkably consistent compared to the other models I'm ready for another "Morch", give me dandelions in early to mid March. Over winter already Overnight Thursday temps will rise to near 40, then below zero 3 days later with bare ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 03z RAP takes the low to Chicago/Milwaukee and bombs it out to 965 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Natester said: 03z RAP takes the low to Chicago/Milwaukee and bombs it out to 965 mb. Puff, puff, pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Unfortunately surface temps stink again for this one which is gonna take a chunk out of accumulations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 No two storms the same, but the short range meso models (ARW, NSSL, etc) were way too far northwest with the last system at this stage. Current 0z runs of both, for this upcoming storm, have the slp in and near LAF at 48 hours (971mb ARW, 974mb NSSL). Probably meaningless, alas...I'm grasping at straws. Just want a little snow cover before the arctic hounds visit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: No two storms the same, but the short range meso models (ARW, NSSL, etc) were way too far northwest with the last system at this stage. Current 0z runs of both, for this upcoming storm, have the slp in and near LAF at 48 hours (971mb ARW, 974mb NSSL). Probably meaningless, alas...I'm grasping at straws. Just want a little snow cover before the arctic hounds visit. Good seeing you! Hope all has been well! Time for me to raise the shields to keep this thing se of Ft. Wayne and Jackson! Time for that crap nw of there to end! Keep the mixed/rain crap east of here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ride the GFS/Euro blend. GEM has been consistently a bit southeast of that since the GFS locked in similar to the Euro/EPS. UKMET has also been consistent with the SLP track for this the last several cycles. Feeling pretty decent away from the lake in the metro as things stand now, and hopefully things work out cold enough to help near the lake. Will be doing the forecast for the storm again tomorrow, and possibly tomorrow night too, as there's a chance I double back and work a midnight shift so we have 3 people there. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 19 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: No two storms the same, but the short range meso models (ARW, NSSL, etc) were way too far northwest with the last system at this stage. Current 0z runs of both, for this upcoming storm, have the slp in and near LAF at 48 hours (971mb ARW, 974mb NSSL). Probably meaningless, alas...I'm grasping at straws. Just want a little snow cover before the arctic hounds visit. It’s been trending more favorable, if ever so slightly. On the flip side, betting on a marginal set-up is risky. I think you’ll exit with a solid cover at worst (~3”), but have above 50/50 shot of warning level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, Harry said: Good seeing you! Hope all has been well! Time for me to raise the shields to keep this thing se of Ft. Wayne and Jackson! Time for that crap nw of there to end! Keep the mixed/rain crap east of here! You too Harry. All good here. And yeah, need to keep this east. 0z Ukie has a great track, good thermals, but is a bit stingy with the snowfall considering the former ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 00Z guidance has been a huge confidence booster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 44 minutes ago, Natester said: 03z RAP takes the low to Chicago/Milwaukee and bombs it out to 965 mb. Feel like rap/hrrr will continue to nudge se closer to guidance like last event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The thing to worry about here is that tomorrow night's wave performs best off to the northwest, and then the main wave of precip sort of just grazes us later Friday after a long lull with drizzle/very light snow. If we can do well enough with the first wave then being grazed by the main one wouldn't be so bad. Hopefully the globals are correct in showing more of widespread distribution of heavier snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: It’s been trending more favorable, if ever so slightly. On the flip side, betting on a marginal set-up is risky. I think you’ll exit with a solid cover at worst (~3”), but have above 50/50 shot of warning level. Hate being on the fringes. Knew I wasn't going to be in the main snow swath couple of days ago, but just hoping for some scraps at the tail end. Like, cover the grass tips. I have serious doubts that'll happen, based on prior experience with these marginal pieces of crap. But, one can always hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Hate being on the fringes. Knew I wasn't going to be in the main snow swath couple of days ago, but just hoping for some scraps at the tail end. Like, cover the grass tips. I have serious doubts that'll happen, based on prior experience with these marginal pieces of crap. But, one can always hope. Wish I could add better insight but there has been not much to follow since the model upgrades other then the last system and I am not betting anything on one system. Just hope that is the case with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I just know with past experiences that with a nino the trend tended to be se close in vs Nina and the nw trend. And with this type of system I want the slp at least 100 or more miles to my south and east. Just not east of Toledo/Detroit.. But that's me of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, Harry said: I just know with past experiences that with a nino the trend tended to be se close in vs Nina and the nw trend. And with this type of system I want the slp at least 100 or more miles to my south and east. Just not east of Toledo/Detroit.. But that's me of course. You and I both. There’s such a wide range of possibilities with this it’s ridiculous. GFS has been very consistent with this system, but wouldn’t mind a bump southeast. HRRR and other short range guidance giving us another cold Eurythmics special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/9/2024 at 1:18 AM, rainsucks said: I'll make a first call of 18" for ORD. Could easily be higher tho looking good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 19 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: You and I both. There’s such a wide range of possibilities with this it’s ridiculous. GFS has been very consistent with this system, but wouldn’t mind a bump southeast. HRRR and other short range guidance giving us another cold Eurythmics special. It has but was as well with last system which as we know ended up a bit se of gfs track.. That's our hope anyways. Shouldn't be worrying about to far NW with a damn Nino as is... Ugh. Climate change for you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Harry said: It has but was as well with last system which as we know ended up a bit se of gfs track.. That's our hope anyways. Shouldn't be worrying about to far NW with a damn Ni o as is... Ugh. Climate change for you.. Gotta love it. Nice having you in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro going gangbusters on Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 silly level of disagreement on snow across the GL region with less than 72 hours before things are rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro is an absolute beast for N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Verbatim, widespread 12-15” totals across the entire metro immediate lakeshore notwithstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro still not wanting to play nice for areas further south like other globals. Crush job for Chicago and N IL of course. Man this one hurts. That track on euro looks so good for here normally. Hoping maybe that warm nose won't get that west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Euro is an absolute beast for northeast IL FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 what the Euro is depicting is actually pretty scary tbh, even life-threatening if one were to be caught stranded in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 43 minutes ago, rainsucks said: looking good not really. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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