RyanDe680 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: A watch for downtown and near lake areas seems highly questionable at this point. At least for now... Seems appropriate given the 'disclosure' * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds with the potential for periods of blizzard conditions are expected Friday evening into early Saturday. Warmer temperatures near Lake Michigan will likely cut into snow accumulations during the day on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Just now, michaelmantis said: (Not sure if this is too off topic) Didn't the split Cook county into a North and South warning zone for Thunderstorms recently? And one would think there would be some split for areas near the Lake in situations like this. Cook Co is split into 3 zones for headlines. Will Co has a similar split as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 13 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: If you're trusting hrrr at this range the joke will be on you. Lol. It did terrible at this range with previous system. Not trusting it, merely commenting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 NAM north/amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: Seems appropriate given the 'disclosure' * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds with the potential for periods of blizzard conditions are expected Friday evening into early Saturday. Warmer temperatures near Lake Michigan will likely cut into snow accumulations during the day on Friday. I just got back from my parents in Arlington Heights / Des Plains area and the difference in snow in just 15 miles (as the crow flies) where I'm at was clear. Now how far will the lake impact things is one of the big questions (low placement obviously too!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 0z nam will be a chicago crusher, u can tell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Well this is depressing. Lol. I can't say I was expecting mostly a rainer from this one. Congrats Chicago peeps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, A-L-E-K said: 0z nam will be a chicago crusher, u can tell Never any doubt, our CAM moment will come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The NAM has shifted it's low location wildly every run Truly the best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We always rip on dtx but grr is probably as bad if not worse regards to issuing headlines on time lol. I always enjoy their afd's and discussions which makes it weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 NAM being the NAM. Jan 8th/9th storm the NAM 48hour out had the LP in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GRR goes with a watch. Now to see if they can actually go with more than an advisory if this pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 LOL what a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Toss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 ILX went watches for their extreme north. Really wish gfs could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, madwx said: We've been close to or in the sweet spot with this one for a while...and surprisingly that hasn't really changed. Should be interesting when I'm trying to leave work around midday Friday. @madwx I just realized how similar our avatars are ever since I changed mine to a frame from my Keota tornado video; horizon and debris cloud are at about the same level, only difference is my foreground is drab brown since it was taken in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: We've been in close to or in the sweet spot with this one for a while...and surprisingly that hasn't really changed. Should be interesting when I'm trying to leave work around midday Friday. Winter Storm watches already getting issued for us up here in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 29 minutes ago, andyhb said: 18z NAM is a titanic bust for many lol. Have to think that the super warm December up north/lack of snow cover is contributing to all of these marginal temperature events. Basically a hangover from that. You essentially need a lobe of the PV to come down and bring the real cold like after this storm, but because the PV lobe is lagging behind this system, it doesn't contribute. Timing of both is just not coming together perfectly. PV needs to speed up or system slow down.. but then impact works be a miss. Hard to get it all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 And now MKX has their watches out. And all I am going to say to that is... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The last system gave me PTSD here in SE Wisconsin near the lake. At least this shouldn’t be a total rainer but it’s still really going to cut into the totals on the lakeshore again and keeping me anxious. If it pleases the crown, may I please have a few inches before the deep freeze? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The conversation and model spread (even within ensembles) is similar to what I recall last week before New England's snowstorm on the weekend. The outcome was approximately halfway from worst case scenario rain intrusions to best case all-snow, for eastern MA and coastal CT-RI. BOS ended up 3.8", model (and also forum member) forecasts were between zero and 10", snow gradient west and north of BOS quite dramatic, 15" at Worcester and 20" near MA-Nh border. It's difficult to remember which models were saying warm and which were going cold but NAM was definitely not consistent run to run. RGEM was consistent but turned out a bit warmer than outcome. I suspect 18z NAM is outside actual guardrails for this event. If I had to forecast it now, would say 10 inch line Kenosha s.s.w. to ORD and then w.s.w. towards quad cities, max snow 15-20 around MKE and northern lower MI n.e to APN. Dynamic storm with a wicked lake-effect tail for n IN and sw MI. Temps into 47-53F range into nw Ohio could clip DTW briefly, followed by strong winds in occlusion stage, snow into sw ON will cut off near 401 or as far north as hwy 7, but storm could change phase if it creates a coastal in time. Severe storm potential from s.w Ohio to Gulf coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Come on say it! Another central Illinois cold Rainer 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Dtw crew would take the 18z rgem and run. Not as wound up and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Dtw crew would take the 18z rgem and run. Not as wound up and east. I would love that as well. Grasping for straws here. Ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Dtw crew would take the 18z rgem and run. Not as wound up and east. RGEM and ICON buth have less QPF and even with the RGEM east solution snow totals are much lower in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 42 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 0z nam will be a chicago crusher, u can tell I think the 0z Euro will be the beginning of a SE trend, u can also feel it in the air.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: I think the 0z Euro will be the beginning of a SE trend, u can also feel it in the air.. I like your optimism but I'm highly skeptical unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said: I like your optimism but I'm highly skeptical unfortunately I was only kidding. I'm still in the bargaining stage of my grief. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, WestMichigan said: RGEM and ICON buth have less QPF and even with the RGEM east solution snow totals are much lower in MI. I'm not saying we're gonna jackpot but the rgem actually has higher qpf over towards to dtw, albeit shitty ratios. I also think models may be overdoing the strenghth. Rgem has been pretty consistent. Alot can change in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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