A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, mimillman said: Once again the Euro manages to keep 0c 850mb south of the immediate metro, very different from last storm. Ratios will be very poor but this should be very heavy snow as progged. The NE burbs will do very well. I made a final call of 3-5” for the city. That may still be accurate but could be low for the NW neighborhoods. ORD and northwest of there should be 6-10” could find my way into a classic right for the wrong reason call if the euro is correct 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 hard 2 hate but yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: hard 2 hate but yet For how close we are that spread is ridiculous East of the operational seems to be the trend today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: For how close we are that spread is ridiculous East of the operational seems to be the trend today It was last night, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Winter Storm Watch incoming for IWX... Edit to add text. Includes northern tier of Indiana counites and southern Michigan counties in IWX ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Conditions are expected to deteriorate through the day Friday. Wind gusts from the west of 35 to 45 mph are possible Friday night and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12Z Euro deepens 8 MB in 6 hours, from 981 at 18Z Friday to 973 at 00Z Saturday. Wasted QPF, bad ratios or not, a storm of this intensity is going to have significant, varied, and dangerous impacts across a large area. There could even be a storm surge in much of New England/Long Island with that strong, broad southerly fetch blowing into the low Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 25 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: For how close we are that spread is ridiculous East of the operational seems to be the trend today Ensembles are expected to have a spread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 HRRR says warm air for the win across all of southern Michigan and Illinois. Not sure how much I believe it but it is a different solution for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: riding the canadian All the way, neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We all know how this game works everything is proceeding as well as one can expect other than the shit ratios overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: HRRR says warm air for the win across all of southern Michigan and Illinois. Not sure how much I believe it but it is a different solution for sure. getting a low 970s bomb into your sweet spot in mid january and getting a rainer would be an all-time L we deserve better 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z hrrr real special. Explosive deepening and says hello rain for a good chunk of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 cromartie's curse 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: getting a low 907s bomb into your sweet spot in mid january and getting a rainer would be an all-time L we deserve better Guessing you meant 970s bomb. Lol. 907s and rain would really be something in Jan. Ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The Korean is not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 don't worry, i've got all the esoteric models you could want the australians are all in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That 18Z HRRR gives some parts of southern WI and far northern IL nearly 1" in an hour toward the end of the run with the snow far from over. Sorry, south of I-80 (possibly even I-88) folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 chuck 'em deep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: 18z hrrr real special. Explosive deepening and says hello rain for a good chunk of us Only about a 350 mile movement on the slp location versus the 12z run, where it was making for Wisconsin via Dubuque when the run ended... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: That 18Z HRRR gives some parts of southern WI and far northern IL nearly 1" in an hour toward the end of the run with the snow far from over. Sorry, south of I-80 (possibly even I-88) folks. If you're trusting hrrr at this range the joke will be on you. Lol. It did terrible at this range with previous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: chuck 'em deep how can you ignore an ironclad Korean/Aussie/Chinese consensus 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, mjwise said: Only about a 350 mile movement on the slp location versus the 12z run, where it was making for Wisconsin via Dubuque when the run ended... Hrrr and nam on the same drugs apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Once again the Euro manages to keep 0c 850mb south of the immediate metro, very different from last storm. Ratios will be very poor but this should be very heavy snow as progged. The NE burbs will do very well. I made a final call of 3-5” for the city. That may still be accurate but could be low for the NW neighborhoods. ORD and northwest of there should be 6-10” 3-5 for the city seems very low. Most model runs support at least above 6-7 for the city and the Euro just showed 10+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 If we can get this to keep trending NW, we could get a secondary low development towards the OV....That would be hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Watch just issued by LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Winter Storm Watch posted by LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 A watch for downtown and near lake areas seems highly questionable at this point. At least for now... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, Frog Town said: If we can get this to keep trending NW, we could get a secondary low development towards the OV....That would be hilarious. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: A watch for downtown and near lake areas seems highly questionable at this point. At least for now... (Not sure if this is too off topic) Didn't the NWS split Cook county into a North and South warning zone for Thunderstorms recently? And one would think there would be some split for areas near the Lake in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z NAM is a titanic bust for many lol. Have to think that the super warm December up north/lack of snow cover is contributing to all of these marginal temperature events. Basically a hangover from that. You essentially need a lobe of the PV to come down and bring the real cold like after this storm, but because the PV lobe is lagging behind this system, it doesn't contribute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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