Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Stop me if you've seen this before, but the NAM is a north outlier. Just now, CheeselandSkies said: Not as much as the HRRR, though. There is actually a reason why, and if it does come to fruition it would bust most areas. It amplifies a lead head of the vort in the north forcing a low to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Not as much as the HRRR, though. Hahaha yeah, I stand corrected. The HRRR running the low through DBQ is a north outlier, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Yea the NAM is admittedly disastrous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Plan is for me to do the forecast for the storm today. Definitely a risk with ptypes into the metro, though recall that GHD II started out pretty warm too. So hopefully we find a happy medium. The Chicago shore could be a bigger issue again. Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkGHD2 can’t even get a mention.With that one temps dropped quite a bit during the long-duration storm. With this one temps will not crash until it’s pretty much wrapped up, as currently modeled that is. So easy toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 bigger event at ord tonight or friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, A-L-E-K said: bigger event at ord tonight or friday? I’m going to sell the NAM and say Friday but I’m weary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 y’all have to stop with the NAM.it’s trash and it’s life clock is nearing 0, once the RRFS is implemented successfully.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I can’t believe I have to post this meme every winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: y’all have to stop with the NAM. it’s trash and it’s life clock is nearing 0, once the RRFS is implemented successfully. . We will see what the 12z does but, this isn't a ringing endorsement for the RRFS over the NAM or the RRFS for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 We will see what the 12z does but, this isn't a ringing endorsement for the RRFS over the NAM or the RRFS for this storm.The RRFS is a whole ENS package.That is just one experimental hi-res, which yes, also has not performed well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Chicago Storm said: The RRFS is a whole ENS package. That is just one experimental hi-res, which yes, also has not performed well. . Is there anywhere to see its test data or experimental output? The way it sounds is that it should be treated like the new SREF if its an ensemble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Even the NAM's wildly north solution drops warning criteria snows for much of LOT and the metro. Feeling good about another decent hit locally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I can’t believe I have to post this meme every winter. Even within 24 hours it and the SREF are dodgy. As late as the 15Z run on Monday, the majority of the SREF members still said it would be a rain event on Tuesday afternoon in Dekalb. I put no stock in it 48 hours+ out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Is there anywhere to see its test data or experimental output? The way it sounds is that it should be treated like the new SREF if its an ensemble.Here’s a link to a limited amount of experimental output…https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rrfs_na_3km_dev1_conus_jet&domain=full%3Ahrrr&run_time=10+Jan+2024+-+00ZLatest update that I saw was that after several delays, implementation was planned for end of 2024. The FV3 will also be part of things. Here’s a link the the experimental output from it…https://fim.noaa.gov/FV3new/The whole system will eventually replace the HRRR, RAP, Hi-Res Window, and NAM’s.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GHD2 can’t even get a mention.With that one temps dropped quite a bit during the long-duration storm. With this one temps will not crash until it’s pretty much wrapped up, as currently modeled that is. So easy toss.The second half had a much better air mass, but the front end Saturday night all the way into or through that Sunday morning was lower ratio with temps near freezing. This looks more marginal than that and the lake had some ice on it, or was near freezing at least. Main point about GHD II is that if we don't get dry slotted or too warm aloft, we can pick up a good amount of snow with more marginal temps. And in this case, there's been good agreement to this point on the deformation Friday night having a much better air mass coming in. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12z gfs takes a very similar track to what the prior storm just did. Not quite as aggressive with warm surge as other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, Sciascia said: i won't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Hopefully it's still underestimating a bit on how quickly the cold air wraps in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 26 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Beautiful hit for me in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Hoping for a last second slight eastern shift so us Michigan peeps get the better snows too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Hoping for a last second slight eastern shift so us Michigan peeps get the better snows too Yea my gut is telling me the models are overdoing it with the strength. I think the 12z Canadian is more realistic. I think grr over to flint and up to mount pleasant will be the jackpot. Detroit may see a few sloppy inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Gefs is east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, Sciascia said: #3 would require a suicide watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GEFS seems pretty north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Incase anyone didn’t have enough fun watching heavy white rain yesterday, you’ll have another opportunity to do it just 3 days later! How exciting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: GEFS seems pretty north The OP run appears to be on the NW side of the cluster. Lots of member E-SE still. OP has the low over Gary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This trend ne with the passing low. Definitely a pattern that can't be ignored. Not a flake yesterday... round two following suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: The OP run appears to be on the NW side of the cluster. Lots of member E-SE still. OP has the low over Gary. Crazy how close we are to event and still so much spread. Was thinking sampling this morning would be helpful for models. I was wrong. Lol. I'm not sure what to expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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