sbnwx85 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Not a historic run around here but the lake effect can’t be ignored. Going to be a long duration event especially on the west coast of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Not sure I can handle another battle of the WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 4:30 AM, sbnwx85 said: Not a historic run around here but the lake effect can’t be ignored. Going to be a long duration event especially on the west coast of Michigan. Expand Would take only a little shift back east for you guys to be in the money at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 4:31 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Would take only a little shift back east for you guys to be in the money at least Expand Certainly not going to sneeze at a foot+ of snow with high winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 That uh... 00z GEFS anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Lots of very strong members but varied in location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 This one’s hitting the shore tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Looking good for us so far @Stebo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 4:38 AM, Malacka11 said: That uh... 00z GEFS anyone? Expand One of the few times I would be happy with every member of the ensemble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Another banger run of the Euro. Absolute JDAM missile for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Euro staying course, I believe. Can't see problems getting cold enough for snow unless it's right beside Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I imagine tonight's LOT forecast discussion -and hopefully many of them in the next few days if we can stay on course- will be save worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Euro doing that same big warm surge at 850mb. Man I really didn't think I would have any precip type issues with this one. Hoping that can calm some on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 With the snowpack and airmass the warm air issues on the NAM and Euro both seem just odd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 6:50 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: With the snowpack and airmass the warm air issues on the NAM and Euro both seem just odd Expand I thought the same thing. But GFS does it to. But not as long as nam and euro. Just seems crazy to get that north of a warm slug with where the sfc low is tracking. It's south of where current storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 4:48 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Looking good for us so far @Stebo Expand nah, Detroit is out of the game for this one unfortunately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:55 AM, rainsucks said: nah, Detroit is out of the game for this one unfortunately Expand An eastern shift would put them back in, with the model instability who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 NAM 06z winds up big time about six hours slower and track closer to SBN, GRR. 970 low near GRR. It does look like rather mild air tries to wrap around the center but with that rate of deepening, bands of S+ would likely form almost to center of low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Heard the eurythmics in my dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 06z GFS looks about like NAM but elongates, intense look. Still 72 to go ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:01 AM, A-L-E-K said: Heard the eurythmics in my dreams Expand i think this one maybe money.Even any intial rain/mix will be put to bed quickly. And while have not looked at models typically these systems with incoming cold air should help you with LE on the backend. I'd be more concerned if yesterday's event hadn't ended up SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 6:19 AM, Malacka11 said: I imagine tonight's LOT forecast discussion -and hopefully many of them in the next few days if we can stay on course- will be save worthy. Expand actually tame and lame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 The atmosphere is pretty similar to the current storm with this one. Idk why you guys think a bust potential isn't there with essentially the same storm again especially in the city of Chicago. Joe is seeing it so is Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:54 AM, Stebo said: The atmosphere is pretty similar to the current storm with this one. Idk why you guys think a bust potential isn't there with essentially the same storm again especially in the city of Chicago. Joe is seeing it so is Alek. Expand Hopefully can get a few inches out of this. Would be unpleasant to have an arctic air outbreak with barley any snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:48 AM, Baum said: i think this one maybe money.Even any intial rain/mix will be put to bed quickly. And while have not looked at models typically these systems with incoming cold air should help you with LE on the backend. I'd be more concerned if yesterday's event hadn't ended up SE. Expand my miss south (and lake assist) and stebo's wish cast are dead, the freak cutter is happening but you're underestimating temps, antecedent is bad and mid levels look warm. any areas of SN/+SN will be splotchy and we'll be flipping to rain for periods of weaker forcing. I'm hoping we can hold onto a period of high end conditions or tssn with the bombing low but this looks like a palm guy storm for accums 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:06 AM, SolidIcewx said: Hopefully can get a few inches out of this. Would be unpleasant to have an arctic air outbreak with barley any snow on the ground Expand Yes I think a few inches is maybe possible but I can't go above 4" and honestly that might get washed away by rain too, just like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:07 AM, A-L-E-K said: my miss south (and lake assist) and stebo's wish cast are dead, the freak cutter is happening but you're underestimating temps, antecedent is bad and mid levels look warm. any areas of SN/+SN will be splotchy and we'll be flipping to rain for periods of weaker forcing. I'm hoping we can hold onto a period of high end conditions or tssn with the bombing low but this looks like a palm guy storm for accums Expand It’s been 31 all night here despite gusty N winds and 6” of fresh snow. Antecedent airmass isn’t going to shove this one south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Surface temps will be in the mid 30’s at the start. Sounds very familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:16 AM, madwx said: It’s been 31 all night here despite gusty N winds and 6” of fresh snow. Antecedent airmass isn’t going to shove this one south Expand where is south, flat, weaker when u need it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:22 AM, A-L-E-K said: where is south, flat, weaker when u need it Expand Warm December still haunts us...Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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