dmc76 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Im not a good analog person lol. I can tell you how much snow fell when, but cant tell you the origin of it. I mean, we got 16.7" from a bowling ball type storm GHDII and have had many gulf lows produce the general 6-12. Also, will be interesting to see how LES performs in the storms wake. Best analog potentially is the 1992 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12z rgem looks euroish with a low strengthening alot sooner than the gfs/nam. Extrapolated it would be sexy for chitown, N indiana, into western part of Michigan. Sort of. It slowly slides east as it hits the block. 12+ hours of mod/heavy snow. I'd imagine ratios would be above 10:1 in the defo band with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 ICON hopped way back north, so I'm predicting the GFS will do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 14 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: ICON hopped way back north, so I'm predicting the GFS will do the same. Nope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It can never be easy, can it? And I have no room in this forum to complain because right now I’m looking at either 10” of snow or a ‘78 redux. But it would be nice if the models could have a consensus for more than six hours at a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Lol main shortwave is too flat on the 12z GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 ride the multi season trend there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GEM also ticks east but nice lake enhancement signal for those getting screwed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 as nice as it would be to get the dog some guidance has shown, odds are this one will favor southeast of here, due to the evolution of things.sort of a late developer for here than you’d normally like to see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 and it's over lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: as nice as it would be to get the dog some guidance has shown, odds are this one will favor southeast of here, due to the evolution of things. sort of a late developer for here than you’d normally see. . Yep, like I mentioned earlier, it will still be a good storm and most will get a good hit but these sub 970mb lows are a pipe dream, just like they were for the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 IN/OH bros rejoice. GFS, NAM, Canadian all have a bit flatter look in development like @andyhb mentioned, looks like due to a sharper Thursday wave and resulting response in ON from quick looks at 500mb on each. This still gets a relatively strong SLP into OH but much more progressive NE forward movement vs the bombing northerly cut. Solid totals across a lot of the forum but the brunt definitely settles into Nrn IN/NW OH/Srn MI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yep, like I mentioned earlier, it will still be a good storm and most will get a good hit but these sub 970mb lows are a pipe dream, just like they were for the current system. So the question is, why does the guidance (across multiple models and multiple ensemble members) keep showing them until relatively close in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Well ICON, Ukmet, GDPS, and somewhat nam/euro all look good for this. GFS did pretty well with this current system. Is it going to be right and be a miss se for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yep, like I mentioned earlier, it will still be a good storm and most will get a good hit but these sub 970mb lows are a pipe dream, just like they were for the current system. Isnt that better for SE MI? Im routing for a slightly weaker more SE trend. A stronger storm is just a redo of this current one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, mississaugasnow said: Isnt that better for SE MI? Im routing for a slightly weaker more SE trend. A stronger storm is just a redo of this current one It is better for here than the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: So the question is, why does the guidance (across multiple models and multiple ensemble members) keep showing them until relatively close in time? Still a ton of moving parts one would expect the Euro to come down some this upcoming run though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Subtle but notable. EDIT: Yeah, big swing in member MSLPs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: How is that in comparison to the OP? I haven't had time to dive super deep into this one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Isnt that better for SE MI? Im routing for a slightly weaker more SE trend. A stronger storm is just a redo of this current one Yes, it is better. I'm also rooting for slightly weaker, however a stronger storm will not necessarily be a complete redo of this storm. The Arctic hounds are waiting in the wings behind Fri/Sat storm whereas there's no cold air with this storm. Of course all that said I definitely want slightly weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: How is that in comparison to the OP? I haven't had time to dive super deep into this one yet. Decided weaker/east shift on the GEFS. Historic storm off the table there. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Yes, it is better. I'm also rooting for slightly weaker, however a stronger storm will not necessarily be a complete redo of this storm. The Arctic hounds are waiting in the wings behind Fri/Sat storm whereas there's no cold air with this storm. Of course all that said I definitely want slightly weaker. I think it can be misleading regarding the strength of these lows. I am no expert but the gfs just has the storm getting its act together later than the euro. It isn't necessarily weaker when it comes to the precip. A strengthening low down to 980 can still produce the same kind of deformation band as a 970 low. The difference however is the speed and whether the low closes off. Now I don't know if a 970 low is more likely to close off than a 980 low. It looks like to me the gfs is more progressive with the wave and doesn't close it off (neg tilt) like the euro may, thus less snow amounts than it could produce if it closed off and slowed down a bit. I'd imagine lows are more likely to close off and go neg tilt when there's phasing involved like GHD 2011. Today's storm looks like it may be going neg tilt and its only a 985/980 low. I need to educate myself more on the detailed maps and not just look at the precip maps. I do however appreciate when more educated people give their analysis on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, andyhb said: Decided weaker/east shift on the GEFS. Historic storm off the table there. Lovely. Hopefully it trends back but feel like it won't. This first storm trended nw so makes sense this trends se. Can't win here. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Yes, it is better. I'm also rooting for slightly weaker, however a stronger storm will not necessarily be a complete redo of this storm. The Arctic hounds are waiting in the wings behind Fri/Sat storm whereas there's no cold air with this storm. Of course all that said I definitely want slightly weaker. The arctic air wouldnt help eastern lakes though. Unless you're talking the difference being after the storm passes we go into the freezer. If thats the case to me its the same since its just a cold, snowless ground lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Yes, it is better. I'm also rooting for slightly weaker, however a stronger storm will not necessarily be a complete redo of this storm. The Arctic hounds are waiting in the wings behind Fri/Sat storm whereas there's no cold air with this storm. Of course all that said I definitely want slightly weaker. But overall looks more fun for us on the east side of the forum to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 and it's over lolwasn’t a forecast, just a thought.you’ve gotten pretty bad these days. might be time for a post 2016 election hiatus for ya. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: wasn’t a forecast, just a thought. you’ve gotten pretty bad these days. might be time for a post 2016 election hiatus for ya. sounds like he is past his prime, like the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Emotions will be running high because of the amped up solutions, as stebo alluded too, lots of moving parts, that are just now coming into focus. Obviously everyone wants the historic blizzard, BUT a spread the wealth that drops 6-9” with 30-35mph winds is still awesome to me. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, Chambana said: Emotions will be running high because of the amped up solutions, as stebo alluded too, lots of moving parts, that are just now coming into focus. Obviously everyone wants the historic blizzard, BUT a spread the wealth that drops 6-9” with 30-35mph winds is still awesome to me. Yep we all deserve a nice hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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