wind Thoughts on Monday night-Wednesday?

[Jesse from KY]

Hi everyone! Just wanted to get everyone's opinion on whether we could see wind speeds meeting Wind Advisory OR High Wind Warning criteria in portions of SE KY starting Monday night or Tuesday.

[Carvers Gap]

I don't know if we have ever had a mountain wave thread.  If there are, there are just a few.  I will tag @Math/Met for this thread as he is pretty much an expert on mountain waves.  Here is what MRX has:

The main hazard will be a strong mountain wave event that is set to
begin Monday night. The synoptic pattern favors a high-end mountain
wave event with the core of the 850mb wind maximum (nearly 70-80+
knots) west of the Appalachians. Additionally, cross-mountain flow,
a stable layer across the ridge tops, and a strong pressure gradient
aligned across the mountains only add to the confidence of a strong
mountain wave event likely to take place. Just as the previous
discussion from this morning mentioned, gusts up to 100 mph wouldn`t
be a surprise for the usual wind-prone areas such as Cove Mountain,
and Camp Creek. Additionally, in the very strong cases, its not
surprising to see the "waves" extend further into the foothills than
what is typical, although the magnitude of winds isn`t as strong as
those higher elevations. Downsloping from this event will lead to
adiabatic warming across the foothills and the forecast will reflect
some of this warmth Monday night and Tuesday.

Winds will still be strong outside of the mountains, albeit weaker.
There will be a delay between when the mountain wave winds start and
the winds in the lower elevations. Lower elevations probably won`t
see these winds pick up until daylight hours Tuesday. Gusty winds
will continue into Tuesday night before decreasing as the jet core
races off toward the northeast and the pressure gradient relaxes. As
the rain moves out, much colder temperatures will advect eastward
with 850mb temperatures falling to -6C to -8C leading a subsequent
increase in lapse rates. Scattered rain and snow showers will be
possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning within the base
of the trough. Moisture will be limited so not expecting any
significant accumulations from this or the weak orographically
induced snow across the Smokies. High pressure at the surface
settles across the northern Gulf coast and Florida peninsula through
Thursday bringing drier weather to the region.

 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Jesse from KY said:

Hi everyone! Just wanted to get everyone's opinion on whether we could see wind speeds meeting Wind Advisory OR High Wind Warning criteria in portions of SE KY starting Monday night or Tuesday.

Yeah, more than likely.