AmericanWxFreak Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Mrs.J said: Parents in Frederick Co. remember this image from Fall 2021. We are more than fine with a 3 hr. early dismissal up here. I always sit back and giggle at people who don't understand the logic behinds these decisions. Its pretty clear cut to me. Glad these people aren't risk managers for a living 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Thought this was interesting from lwx disco Current soundings continue to indicate 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. The evening sounding tonight at IAD could break observed wind records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1225 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024 DCZ001-MDZ013-016-504-506-VAZ053>055-057-527-100130- /O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0001.240109T2000Z-240110T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.HW.W.0001.240109T2000Z-240110T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 1225 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...In District of Columbia, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Prince Georges, Charles, Central and Southeast Montgomery and Central and Southeast Howard Counties. In Virginia, Fairfax, Stafford, King George and Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park Counties, and Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Approaching 1.75 already down here now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 @MN Transplant will probably be surprised by the HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1225 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024 DCZ001-MDZ013-016-504-506-VAZ053>055-057-527-100130- /O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0001.240109T2000Z-240110T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.HW.W.0001.240109T2000Z-240110T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 1225 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...In District of Columbia, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Prince Georges, Charles, Central and Southeast Montgomery and Central and Southeast Howard Counties. In Virginia, Fairfax, Stafford, King George and Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park Counties, and Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Shocked I don’t have a warning in Carroll all the modeling shows the same as dc here maybe worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Was that the October 30/31st storm? I don't remember the exact dates but around Sept./Oct. of that year. I remember sitting in the HS parking lot at dismissal and while watching RadarScope saw a suspicious rotation pass over the football field. The parking lots full, cars were all over the main road in front of the school double parked. Probably the worst dismissal pick up ever with my kids in school. I live only 1/4 mile from the school, and it took us 20 min to get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, mattie g said: I'm honestly shocked that Fairfax County hasn't made the call, given the other counties doing so. I guess they figure they didn't do it early enough, so they'll stick to their guns and not piss off the folks whose daily routines it would upset. I'm pretty ambivalent about it, to be honest. I’m very NOT ambivalent about it, please just let me go home or give kids who go home early excused absences … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I’m very NOT ambivalent about it, please just let me go home or give kids who go home early excused absences … I don't see the need, but I'm just a parent and not a student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, yoda said: @MN Transplant will probably be surprised by the HWW Maybe not. Earlier it seemed more of the conservative guidance had beefed up winds. At a larger scale I doubt it will be prolonged HWW criteria winds...but that semi-convective element/line could bring down a brief period of winds meeting the criteria. The general background will still probably be 45-50mph gusts outside of that period. But with soggy ground, and to increase awareness, probably fine to go with the HWW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I don't remember the exact dates but around Sept./Oct. of that year. I remember sitting in the HS parking lot at dismissal and while watching RadarScope saw a suspicious rotation pass over the football field. The parking lots full, cars were all over the main road in front of the school double parked. Probably the worst dismissal pick up ever with my kids in school. I live only 1/4 mile from the school, and it took us 20 min to get home. I picked my kindergartener up early that day. Great decision! I teach hs in mcps and just snagged her on my way home. Mcps released early and fcps did not. Kids were stuck at the elementary school until 6!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 How bad is the freezing rain situation over by deep creek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 33 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: Parents in Frederick Co. remember this image from Fall 2021. We are more than fine with a 3 hr. early dismissal up here. I could be wrong, but I am almost positive that was one time when it was clearly obvious everyone should close early and Frederick did not and that's why that happened. I'd also add that one semi-bad thing that happened when it rained one time is not really a reason to freak out about rain. Make informed decisions? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 24 minutes ago, yoda said: @MN Transplant will probably be surprised by the HWW I'm still skeptical that we see the widespread significant winds, but yeah with the preexisting conditions I don't have a problem with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NOT the most 'scientific' way to measure, but stuck the snowruler into 4" gauge and got 1.4", that plus 7 am reading is about 1.75" since it started early this morning. The small 'run' that is 95% dry behind the house is running about 10-12" deep right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Closing in on an inch of rain in the bucket. Snow cover has taken a beating but is still hanging tough. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 21 minutes ago, peribonca said: How bad is the freezing rain situation over by deep creek? I'm about 10 miles south of the lake and it's 30.9 IMBY. Roads are a bit slushy in spots, but they do such a great job out here that if you are traveling, you'll be absolutely fine. I have to go to Morgantown later this afternoon and have no concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Completely different set up, but not nearly as impressive as the March 2019 event on the satellite view. Wondering how much hype this is compared to the past events. Today: March 2019: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 0.50” here so far. stiff east wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Random Chaos said: Tide monitoring page from NOAA for the storm: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/East_Coast_Storm.html Thanks for posting that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Random Chaos said: If we get this height (5.5 feet above MLLW), yes. The next highest was October 2021 at 4.88 feet above MLLW. Isabel was 7.20 feet above MLLW. There were two other storms in the past 100 years to breach 4 feet - 1950's and 1930's Annapolis Isabel: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8575512&units=standard&bdate=20030915&edate=20030923&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=h&action= Annapolis October 2021: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8575512&units=standard&bdate=20211026&edate=20211104&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=h&action= Thank you for this! I had a boat in Bowley's Quarters during Isabell. The marina stayed up all night long retying lines to prevent the lines from sinking the boats. They did a really great job. the next morning I had to walk out on the pier that was still 2 feet under water just to get to my sailboat. That was a crazy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 .54" so far, winds def have picked up in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, mappy said: .54" so far, winds def have picked up in the last hour. Ya it’s getting gusty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: The criteria for closing schools has changed drastically over the decades. My mom told me in the 1960's school would be open with a foot of fresh snow on the ground. When I was in school in the 1990's, it took about 6 inches to close school. Today a squirrel farts wrong and schools close. As to the reason why, my guess is heightened liability issues. Its just easier to make it up at the end of the year than opening yourself up to lawsuits. Your mom lied to you, lol. I was actually IN school during the 1960s (junior & senior high, Montgomery County, Maryland) and if we had a foot of snow I guarantee you the schools would be closed (until the roads were cleared.) Even the Washington, D.C. schools would have a rare closure. Traffic, even light traffic, doesn't move well in snow that heavy. That said, it is true schools close "more easily" now than back then. Consider the difference in population, traffic, and litigiousness. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, TSSN+ said: Ya it’s getting gusty Only going to get worse. I recommended to closing the dance studio tonight so no one had to travel in it, thankfully the owner trusts my weather knowledge enough, and now i don't have to go out later. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Only going to get worse. I recommended to closing the dance studio tonight so no one had to travel in it, thankfully the owner trusts my weather knowledge enough, and now i don't have to go out later. Ya looks like after 3pm it really starts to pick up and 5-8pm being the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Aberdeen Proving Ground sent everyone home at 1300 and maximized telework tomorrow for sunny skies. Pretty insane. This storm better deliver, or the CG won't budge when we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya looks like after 3pm it really starts to pick up and 5-8pm being the worse. Yeah, that 5-9pm timeframe was our concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 They closed what is probably the most flood-prone area of Fairfax County, Burke Lake Road at the lake. The first domino to drop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 31 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I could be wrong, but I am almost positive that was one time when it was clearly obvious everyone should close early and Frederick did not and that's why that happened. I'd also add that one semi-bad thing that happened when it rained one time is not really a reason to freak out about rain. Make informed decisions? Sure. No you are not wrong. The old Superintendent messed that one up for sure. As for the second part I had the ability to pick my kids up. Many families did not, and some kids sat at their schools till 6pm. As for conditions up here now. Wind has picked up and light on the rain here so far with .71". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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