Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z Euro going pretty bonkers with the rainfall. Some spotty 3 and 4 inch amounts west of I-95. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Euro going pretty bonkers with the rainfall. Some spotty 3 and 4 inch amounts west of I-95. James River will be HIGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 WB 18Z 3K NAM big rain and wind still on track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Euro going pretty bonkers with the rainfall. Some spotty 3 and 4 inch amounts west of I-95. The recent rains are definitely a consolation prize to the lack of snow. I'm actually kind of interested in the line moving through Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Coastal flood watches up both sides of the bay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Wow, actual high wind watch for Somerset and VA Eastern Shore counties 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Really good summary by LWX A powerful storm system will impact the entire region Tuesday into Tuesday night. A highly amplified mid/upper trough over the Central Plains pushes eastward toward the MS Valley. A tremendous amount of upper diffluence will cause a surface low to develop and rapidly deepen as it tracks from the lee of the Rockies, across the Central Plains and central Great Lakes. A secondary wave of low pressure develops near the northern Gulf Coast, and is scooped up by the larger low to the north. As the entire complex pushes east, very strong WAA advection and an associated strong cold front are likely to bring significant impacts to our area. Temperatures ahead of this system shoot up to the 50s to low 60s east of I-81, although temperatures will likely follow a nondiurnal curve. Wintry Mix: A residual cold air mass ahead of this system will likely result in a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain for areas west of US-15 Tuesday morning. Some snow accumulation and ice accretion are possible, especially in the higher elevations along and west of the Blue Ridge. However, it`s possible some of the valleys stay cold enough for some accumulation as well. The strong synoptic forcing is going to help produce a quick burst of wintry precip, then strong WAA quickly transitions all p- type to rain by, although it may take until the afternoon in the typical cold pocket near the Allegheny Front around Cumberland. It`s possible these areas see higher end advisory amounts of ice and/or snow as a sizeable amount of QPF may fall before temperatures rise above freezing. Heavy Rain: A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely to overspread the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the heaviest rain along and east of the Blue Ridge. However, there will be added response from any remaining snowpack in western areas. Widespread rain amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches are currently forecast, though given the strong moisture flux, deep moist airmass, and strong diffluence, those totals could certainly end up higher. A heavier band of elevated convection Tuesday evening will likely result in the highest rain rates. This heavy rainfall could lead to urban, small stream, and river flooding. Strong Winds: There are several periods/areas of concern for strong winds. The first is earlier Tuesday into the daytime hours with strong southeast flow overtop of the residual cold pool. This looks to mainly be a downsloping issue west of the Eastern Continental Divide. However, some areas from western Garrett southward down the divide may need Wind Advisories for this period. Then toward evening, an exceptional low level jet (60+ knots or 5 sigma at 925 mb) will expand north along the coast. This is incredibly tricky as steady rainfall and warm air over the cool marine waters will likely result in a notable near-surface stable layer. Most model wind gust output is likely well overdone, although MOS guidance sustained winds of 15-25 kt could not be taking into account the anomalous nature of the event. With that said, winds could very well approach Wind Advisory levels for a time Tuesday evening before quickly subsiding overnight. The Blue Ridge could also be near advisory levels. This could lead to some sporadic wind damage, particularly with trees in increasingly saturated soils. The third period of stronger winds will come Wednesday (see long term section below). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This shift tonight was crazy busy. Here's all the thoughts on the rainfall and flooding risks over the next 3 days. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd Enjoy any feedback on the write-ups Look for 330AM time stamp 10 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 WB 6Z NAM worst of the rain looks like it hits around 9pm east of mountains but windy almost all day Tuesday. Damaging winds i would think are most likely with that heavy rain band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: This shift tonight was crazy busy. Here's all the thoughts on the rainfall and flooding risks over the next 3 days. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd Enjoy any feedback on the write-ups Look for 330AM time stamp Damn, dude. Are you going for the Pulitzer??? Nice write up! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I am very concerned about excessive rains plus snowmelt in Maine. Poor Sunday River.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 NWS statements: flooding and wind FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys and Washington, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren and Western Loudoun, and panhandle West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Jefferson and Morgan. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely to overspread the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals of two to three inches expected with localized amounts up to four inches possible. - Please visit weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: This shift tonight was crazy busy. Here's all the thoughts on the rainfall and flooding risks over the next 3 days. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd Enjoy any feedback on the write-ups Look for 330AM time stamp Great summary and write-up! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Day 2 mod risk of flooding from WPC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12Z HRRR with a little thump out this way tomorrow morning. Would be quickly washed away. But something to watch for anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Looking forward to Apruary tomorrow! 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z HRRR looks far more realistic with the surface wind gusts than the NAM. Peak wind gusts via Windy. Reds are 40s, purples are 50s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Latest NAM suggests an inch+ for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Whoops. I just saw this thread, but made another. Someone delete the one I just made please!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: "The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb." -LWX AFD Yup,.. damn Strong Winds: An unprecedented LLJ is likely to develop over the eastern half of the CWA Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the main surface low moves through. Current soundings from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM12 all have 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 23 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Got a screenshot or two for those are mobile? For rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Yup,.. damn Strong Winds: An unprecedented LLJ is likely to develop over the eastern half of the CWA Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the main surface low moves through. Current soundings from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM12 all have 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb. Pity this isn’t May with a 75/68 spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: Pity this isn’t May with a 75/68 spread With wind that strong they'd probably rip apart the updrafts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, Imgoinhungry said: Whoops. I just saw this thread, but made another. Someone delete the one I just made please! . Two threads for a rainstorm? This board is really going downhill :) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Oragraphic lift will create some very heavy downpours on the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Would expect some 4 - 6 inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 High Wind Warning up for Calvert and St. Mary's counties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, yoda said: High Wind Warning up for Calvert and St. Mary's counties Flood watch and coastal flood watch up for us too. Tropical tracking in January- who had that on their winter bingo card? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just put up my wind sensor this weekend. Should be fun watch the wind speeds on it! Getting high wind watches on my weather radio right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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