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Tuesday, January 9 Rain and Wind Storm


Weather Will
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Just now, vastateofmind said:

Yeah, THIS. Rain has kicked in again, but man...the overall sound of the wind right now is impressive. There's just a general "light roar" outside my home office window right now. Geez.

yep - that's exactly what it is.  Just sounds like there's a plane chilling above us.

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3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

lol what

The US Geological Survey at 3:15 pm gives the following data for the D.C. Little Falls Pump Station on the Potomac. Gage height 3.90 Ft.       24 hrs. ago gage height 3.55' .    Up about 5 inches.

Downstream from DC runoff I would guesstimate a 1 ft. increase.  But strong s and se winds are producing a backswell rise from the bay. High tide at Alexandria is coming at 6 pm. This exacerbates the problem.

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I’m not sure what it says about me but I’m extremely tempted to fly my drone up and see what happens … for science ofc 

I lost an Autel drone a few winters ago in 35-40mph winds :lol: 

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41 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Haven't seen ponding like this IMBY for about a decade. And yeah, REAL worried about a power outage...as I'll be right there with you, @09-10 analogy, manually baling out my 2 foot deep sump pit for however long the power is out. Rain is forecasted to die down around midnight, but knowing my sump pump and seeing the standing water already, it'll be doing overtime for the next 24 hours.  :( 

image.thumb.jpeg.f9c6e2d1be140fee4cbe662deddeaa33.jpeg

My backyard is in a state that I have never seen in the 20 years I’ve lived here. If I lose my sump pump tonight, there’s no doubt that my basement floods.

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0007
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected...Central MD...Central VA...North-central NC...DC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091935Z - 100135Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with some quick moving 
convective line further south, crossing saturated grounds 
likely to induce flooding conditions through the evening/
early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...19z surface analysis and VWP network sfc to 
925mb flow show warm front is starting to surge northeast 
under strong low level southeasterly flow transporting 
enhanced moisture from the western Atlantic feeder off 
the Sargasso Sea. CIRA LPW depict a sharp gradient in 
the lowest level in the vicinity of the the NC/SC line 
and generally where higher higher theta-E air and weak 
mid-level instability to help maintain quick moving 
convective line across currently from Rockingham to 
York/Union county NC. Combined with quick veering at 
the effective cold front, allows for total moisture 
flux into the column enough to support 1.5" totals in 
sub-hourly time frames (generaly 1"/15-20 minutes). 
This line of enhanced convection is starting to move 
into areas with reduced upper level soil capacity and 
lower FFG values across north-central NC into southern 
VA. As such, greater than normal runoff is likely to 
induce flooding, perhaps flashy initially before 
leading to a broader areal flooding that will impact 
more surrounding smaller/combining watersheds across 
the region, especially in urban locales.

Further north, CIRA LPW values are reduced, but slug 
of 700-500mb mid-level moisture and favorable mid to 
upper-level divergence/diffluence should support 
moderate rainfall. Here, duration is going will be 
more likely to result in inducing broad areal 
flooding conditions across central to northern VA, 
central MD into south-central PA. Here, hourly FFG 
values are below 1" and are about .5"/hr in urban 
centers (which is likely to be exceeded as the main 
mid to upper-level height falls cross the area from 
WSW to ENE from 23-01z. Spotty totals of 1-2" are less 
likely to exceed 3hr FFG values, but still should be 
broad enough in exceedance to have solid confidence 
for likely flooding conditions this evening. 

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

 

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