Weather Will Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Might as well track the rain and wind event on our door step...winds are crazy!!!! Power outages and flooding possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 AFD from Mount Holly on the upcoming event- For Tuesday and Wednesday...A strong upper-level trough will lift across the eastern U.S. during this time frame, and it will drive a powerful surface low up the Ohio Valley and across the eastern to central Great Lakes. This will place our region on the warmer side and therefore mostly rain is expected. There is however a short window of opportunity that it starts as some snow or a mix mainly north and west of I-95 (perhaps some light accumulations across parts of the northwestern zones), however with robust warm air advection any of this will quickly change to rain. The rain will become heavy at times especially late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night before tapering off to some showers Wednesday morning. A southeasterly 925 mb jet on the order of 50-75 knots later Tuesday and Tuesday night will advect in ample moisture off the Atlantic. In addition, this flow veers to southwesterly at 500 mb and increases to 70-100 knots. The guidance shows an extensive plume of high precipitable water (1.0-1.5 inches) for this time of year connected all the way into the western Caribbean. This amount of moisture along with strong forcing for ascent will bring widespread rain (2-3 inches likely, with 4 inches possible) across the entire region with the heaviest occurring Tuesday night. A period of enhanced rainfall rates combined with already saturated ground, which will be even more swollen given snow melt across the northern areas, will significantly increase the flooding risk. The upper-level trough or closed low may take on a negative tilt Tuesday night, and this may inject some elevated instability especially closer to frontal passage and therefore a few rumbles of thunder could be possible. The thunder potential remains low confidence, but something to watch especially given the intense wind field not all that far above the surface ahead of the cold front. Some wind headlines will likely be needed especially for the coastal areas, although strong low-level warm air advection and deep moist profiles may prevent at least some of the wind from mixing down to the surface. However, with the low-level winds being southeasterly, there will likely be an area of stronger winds along the immediate coast, as a result of the decreased friction over the open waters. Overall, there is the potential for a period of strong to even locally damaging winds especially closer to the coast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Maybe a little snow in the mountains at onset of Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 A causal reminder that, inland, we don't typically get big winds with SE flow. It generally stays elevated. That said, the NWS P&C for DC Tuesday evening has 30G45mph which is solid. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Finally. This storm look to be the most interesting storm this season. I'm about storms. Not just snowstorms. I've seen euro put out wind gust 60-80 from Annopoils to OC. I'll take my hurricane conditions and Jeb walk it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 23 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Finally. This storm look to be the most interesting storm this season. I'm about storms. Not just snowstorms. I've seen euro put out wind gust 60-80 from Annopoils to OC. I'll take my hurricane conditions and Jeb walk it. Euro winds are notoriously over modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Curious what the 6z euro showed for potential morning snow Tuesday if anybody has it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Curious what the 6z euro showed for potential morning snow Tuesday if anybody has it. Thanks You don’t want to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Yes - there's probably going to be widespread 45mph gusts - but it's not going to be the crazy gusts a few models runs have printed out. Unless you're in a favored spot for wind, it will likely be an advisory level event. However, with potentially soggy ground and such - I'd be more trees than usual come down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yes - there's probably going to be widespread 45mph gusts - but it's not going to be the crazy gusts a few models runs have printed out. Unless you're in a favored spot for wind, it will likely be an advisory level event. However, with potentially soggy ground and such - I'd be more trees than usual come down. When the trees are bare they can easily handle even wind gust to 60, even with wet ground. Wind gust to 45 are pretty common and would be boring and uneventful lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Curious what the 6z euro showed for potential morning snow Tuesday if anybody has it. Thanks WB 6Z EURO; sorry edited for just Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, dailylurker said: When the trees are bare they can easily handle even wind gust to 60, even with wet ground. Wind gust to 45 are pretty common and would be boring and uneventful lol Yea, not too exciting with this setup. Like MN said above, anything southerly rarely mixes down west of the bay. Especially when its a saturated airmass. I never even get good northeasterlies during a big snow storm. Same kind of thing. It's hard to get those winds back down to the surface once deflected. The bay on the other hand, it loves southerlies. Lol. The channeling affect of the land (especially with southeasterlies) accelerate the wind. GFS is most certainly seeing that. What it doesn't see is ground truth of how wet southerlies work in the piedmont lol. Westerlies (especially NW) are a different beast. The can mix real well with the dry air, uneven heating, and topography. Westerlies tumble down like waves. High winds come in pulses. That when piedmonters can watch beautiful devastation from the comfort of our homes. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, dailylurker said: When the trees are bare they can easily handle even wind gust to 60, even with wet ground. Wind gust to 45 are pretty common and would be boring and uneventful lol Problem is that some trees come down if a person farts. PEPCO/BGE/Dominion will find a way to stack outages up I'm sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Another drought denter? We take.. My sativa crop is underwhelming to say the least. Throw in some power flickers and what more do you need? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: A causal reminder that, inland, we don't typically get big winds with SE flow. It generally stays elevated. That said, the NWS P&C for DC Tuesday evening has 30G45mph which is solid. LWX still seems very concerned about damaging winds in their AFD Strong Winds: The kinematic profile with this system is very concerning as all models indicate a strong LLJ overspreading the area east of the Blue Ridge. Current soundings from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM12 all have 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. Generally, southerly wind events have a hard time mixing down fully in this area, but even if just half of that wind reaches the surface, it could result in numerous instances of wind damage. Over the waters, this means Gale conditions are likely, and could possibly approach storm force (gusts of 50KT or greater). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Our soils are quite saturated and it doesn't take much during the winter for flooding to develop. Cold ground and no vegetation means runoff can't be absorbed as efficiently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Our soils are quite saturated and it doesn't take much during the winter for flooding to develop. Cold ground and no vegetation means runoff can't be absorbed as efficiently. This. There's a difference between being concerned about 70mph winds and being concerned about wind damage. Classic setup to have a good bit of damage reports even if the wind is relatively tame compared to our biggest gust events. For "ground truth" there's often not a ton of difference from a 45mph wind event with saturated soil versus a 60+mph event in normal soil conditions. Sometimes people forget that just because the criteria isn't met for a HWW that it won't still be high impact. Compare it to a few hundredths of an inch ice accumulation impacting roads same if not more than a 5+ inch snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This. There's a difference between being concerned about 70mph winds and being concerned about wind damage. Classic setup to have a good bit of damage reports even if the wind is relatively tame compared to our biggest gust events. For "ground truth" there's often not a ton of difference from a 45mph wind event with saturated soil versus a 60+mph event in normal soil conditions. Sometimes people forget that just because the criteria isn't met for a HWW that it won't still be high impact. Compare it to a few hundredths of an inch ice accumulation impacting roads same if not more than a 5+ inch snow event. We're also in an El Nino. The D3 QPF forecast is 1.5" to 2.5" for the entire I-95 to US 15 corridor. We've busted high last minute with just about every other rain storm. I don't see how we don't repeat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Oh boy. Flooding is gonna be a major issue in the northeast if those qpf amounts are anywhere near accurate. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The 12 km NAM has a nice depiction of the intense, forced rain band that will accompany the front later Tuesday evening. This will potentially be our greatest chance to mix some of the stronger winds just above the surface down to the ground. I'm very modestly hopeful of hearing thunder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 If the winds aren’t ripping the shingles off my roof, then meh. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, high risk said: The 12 km NAM has a nice depiction of the intense, forced rain band that will accompany the front later Tuesday evening. This will potentially be our greatest chance to mix some of the stronger winds just above the surface down to the ground. I'm very modestly hopeful of hearing thunder. Got a screenshot or two for those are mobile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Got a screenshot or two for those are mobile? Looking forward to seeing what this looks like on the NAM Nest once we get into range. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Got a screenshot or two for those are mobile? www.tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, mattie g said: www.tropicaltidbits.com Viewing on mobile is alright - but it's a lot easier when images load directly in the thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Very concerned about flooding and wind with this one. Would rather track snow, but I'm going to pay more attention to this than I usually do. We've got a struggling drainage pump at the entrance of my neighborhood and a main road that gets hammered with fallen trees in a regular storm. I hope it's NOT rockin' like forecasted so far. Oan, Maryland thunder makes me giggle. I'm used to central Florida bangers that rattle the dishes in the cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 49 minutes ago, high risk said: Looking forward to seeing what this looks like on the NAM Nest once we get into range. Damn, thats a gut punch to every east coast ski resort. Looks like something we would see in the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 52 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Viewing on mobile is alright - but it's a lot easier when images load directly in the thread. I figure it’s easy enough to go to a new tab (on my phone) and look for myself, rather than ask someone to do the work for me. Anyway… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, Yeoman said: Another drought denter? We take.. My sativa crop is underwhelming to say the least. Throw in some power flickers and what more do you need? Send PM if you need advise. My indica and hybrids are in a greenhouse. They might be coming in the house to ride the storm out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now