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1/9-1/10 Now Morphing to Less-Than-Exciting Power Cutter


Torch Tiger
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Maybe there's some conditioning of thinking because one of these wind transport events actually did mix down earlier this season but ... that shouldn't "sway"  ( pun intended to annoy - ) anyone anyone's thinking.  We still have a lower verification score card when it comes to wind events.

You have to look at these situations from scratch/uniquely.  The environmental set up this time is different, and the differences that are directly observable are limiting factors.  

Snow pack in the interior will be melting in gob fulls but not before most likely limiting mixing.  This system as synoptically handled in all guidance is moving too fast to overcome that.  

I'm also wondering if the SSTs from the Bite around the horn are getting cold enough now to impose inversion, which would probably by extension keep this as an elevation thing.

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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I'm not too excited anymore here, worse is the thick snowpack hurts and it's too much to melt before the llj maxes.. but we'll see about coastal/SE zones and maybe some inland hilltops.

Would you rather have the snow and no wind or no snow and big wind? 

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Just now, Patrick-02540 said:

Who wants to educate me?  How does a snowpack limit winds from reaching the surface?   Thks in advance.  

Any warm near surface air is expended to melt the snowpack, keeping surface temps colder. This sets up an inversion which makes winds harder to mix down. 

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3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

1/9-1/10 Not-Too-Exciting Power Cutter?

confirmed :lol:

 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Would you rather have the snow and no wind or no snow and big wind? 

well I would say snow if we didn't have any, but that's over and done, now it's all about the SE scream.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Any warm near surface air is expended to melt the snowpack, keeping surface temps colder. This sets up an inversion which makes winds harder to mix down. 

Ocean temps fell as well, again helping to create an inversion in temp preventing mixing.

plot_met (1).png

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44 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Where are you located? yeah I agree, not too impressed for either the 10th or 13th locally (wind-wise).  12/18 was also mediocre in the Lowell area, though more wild I-95 and especially SE obviously.

Actually I live in Seekonk which is pretty close to the I-95 corridor. We typically do get more wind than inland areas, but 12/18 was nothing special honestly. Much more notable in Boston specifically. 50 mph sustained and 68 mph gusts for an extended period is huge for them. The benchmark for winds in my area is 03/02/18 which had 47 sustained for many hours with gusts to 65+. That was a special event. Before that, 12/24/94 was the last wind event of that magnitude. But 03/02/18 and 12/24/94 are super rare. The 1950s had several events even bigger than those two.

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12 minutes ago, WJX231 said:

Actually I live in Seekonk which is pretty close to the I-95 corridor. We typically do get more wind than inland areas, but 12/18 was nothing special honestly. Much more notable in Boston specifically. 50 mph sustained and 68 mph gusts for an extended period is huge for them. The benchmark for winds in my area is 03/02/18 which had 47 sustained for many hours with gusts to 65+. That was a special event. Before that, 12/24/94 was the last wind event of that magnitude. But 03/02/18 and 12/24/94 are super rare. The 1950s had several events even bigger than those two.

oh fun, I grew up in Attleboro.  Also have memories of wind events from the 80's to around 2002? but specific dates usually escape me.  Besides singular events like Gloria, Bob (on C.C.), Perfect Storm 91, etc.  I don't remember 12/24/94 for some reason, besides the synoptics (didn't that have sub-tropical characteristics?) maybe it was really good. 

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Just now, Sled said:

Anywhere else but here please, don't need power outages 

I agree.  I'm on the top of a hill at about 940' and was out for three days after the 12/23/22 wind storm, and for 2 days a few weeks back.  The previous owner built the house in 2003 with 24" steel i-beams and 2x8 exterior wall construction.  I thought that was ridiculous until I lived here for a few months.

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11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

oh fun, I grew up in Attleboro.  Also have memories of wind events from the 80's to around 2002? but specific dates usually escape me.  Besides singular events like Gloria, Bob (on C.C.), Perfect Storm 91, etc.  I don't remember 12/24/94 for some reason, besides the synoptics (didn't that have sub-tropical characteristics?) maybe it was really good. 

Oh nice Attleboro is just north of me. I'm very young and I wasn't born until 1996. I have never gotten to see a hurricane. I've done extensive research on wind records at PVD, and that's how I know that 12/24/94 had winds similar to 03/02/18 (in terms of longevity of both high sustained as well as gusts). Bob actually ranks below 1994! Yeah 1994 was the one with subtropical characteristics.

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2 minutes ago, WJX231 said:

Oh nice Attleboro is just north of me. I'm very young and I wasn't born until 1996. Never gotten to see a hurricane. I've done extensive research on wind records at PVD, and that's how I know that 12/94/94 had winds similar to 03/02/18 (in terms of longevity of both high sustained as well as gusts). Bob actually ranks below 1994! Yeah 1994 was the one with subtropical characteristics.

10/30/17

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Regarding snow melt and flooding. How long are dews above 45? Also there us a distinct 1 inch layer of pure ice under my snow that will slow the melt. 

That's a good question for snow-eating potential. Depends on the model and what you believe to be true, maybe ~12 hours above 45 in your hood?  That's roughly what the Euro and gfs have.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

10/30/17

10/29-30/17 was definitely up there and one of my more memorable wind events, but still a notch below 12/24/94 and 03/02/18 based on records at PVD. 10/29 had like 2 hours of violence versus 12/24/94 and 03/02/18 which both had like 6 hours of violence.

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10/29/21 was basically a cat 1 here. I can't recall those rains on leafed trees. Many parts of the  S shore were over 85-90mph.

 

The March 2018 storm was one of the most impressive events in winter that I can recall. My house was shaking. It also was extremely damaging on the coast. Marshfield had some of the worst damage since 78...probably up there with the Oct 91 storm and that's after new codes in place. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

10/29/21 was basically a cat 1 here. I can't recall those rains on leafed trees. Many parts of the  S shore were over 85-90mph.

 

The March 2018 storm was one of the most impressive events in winter that I can recall. My house was shaking. It also was extremely damaging on the coast. Marshfield had some of the worst damage since 78...probably up there with the Oct 91 storm and that's after new codes in place. 

Yep for my area in terms of non tropical ranked in order from strongest winds it would be: 12/24/94 (which may have been tropical) and 03/02/18 (tied, 1994 had slightly stronger gusts but 2018 had stronger sustained for longer), then 10/29/17, 10/27/21, 02/08/13 (Nemo), 12/23/22, and 12/18/23. Irene, Sandy and Isaias had some big wind too.

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