OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I may be off, but I am pretty sure that one screamer we all had in 96 had a line of convection where all hell broke loose with massive gusts .. despite 1-4 feet OTG prior I think this one is going to need convection to help mechanically mix, because I don't see a lot of support for the LLJ alone doing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I may be off, but I am pretty sure that one screamer we all had in 96 had a line of convection where all hell broke loose with massive gusts .. despite 1-4 feet OTG prior It did, but there wasn't much CAD. Giant low heading due north and high to the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eversource better have out of state crews heading to New England for what’s coming https://x.com/eversourcect/status/1744426629798019224?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg for the cost but inland i dont see winds coming in that strong based on past storm in my area. i could be wrong we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Reggie gone wild with 3-5” of rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 i am looking out past this week looks interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think this one is going to need convection to help mechanically mix, because I don't see a lot of support for the LLJ alone doing it. The convection signal is much higher in this than the previous two setups I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 20 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: I wouldn't be surprised if GYX's current high end map is realized. It's going to come in up here with a hell of a thump and could easily hang on to that cold air longer than expected. I hope so, but either way not sure about getting the sn cleared off the driveway. Slop fest at the end and looks warm enough Thurs to melt a lot of it, but near our garage barely ever gets sun, so if it freezes, it's a real pain later in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The convection signal is much higher in this than the previous two setups I think. Yeah that’s what has me intrigued with both wind and flash flood potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 50-60 isn't a huge deal. Typical. The one on 12/18 was 65+ in many areas. That is when there are issues. Don't tell that to the folks living in Madison on the central CT coast. Trees are so close to the power lines here ....we lose power on almost every storm with over 40 mph winds. Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 If it wasn't for this stupid CAD I bet we'd have a slight risk or enhanced risk for tomorrow night with 30% wind, 5% tor. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, CTSkywarn said: Don't tell that to the folks living in Madison on the central CT coast. Trees are so close to the power lines here ....we lose power on almost every storm with over 40 mph winds. Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk We have state of the art infrastructure in CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Yeah wow very subdued feel for this one. Maybe the 13th cutter will be better? Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We have state of the art infrastructure in CT. I mean we are also pretty heavily wooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18z HRRR and 3km both showing a a fine line rip through overnight. When folks wake up Wednesday morning with trees down all around them, garbage cans blocks away, and roof tiles in their driveway...well don't say they weren't warned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 High wind watch for Kev and Windham 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I hope so, but either way not sure about getting the sn cleared off the driveway. Slop fest at the end and looks warm enough Thurs to melt a lot of it, but near our garage barely ever gets sun, so if it freezes, it's a real pain later in the season Really good consensus around GYX of 4-5 inches before a flip. I'm a little wary because the snow growth zones is so elevated that we can hang on to 15:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah wow very subdued feel for this one. Maybe the 13th cutter will be better? Hmm We can always catch the next cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I bet we end up seeing a marginal risk for svr in a later outlook. The signal for such a line is becoming more impressive. Seeing the 3km so aggressive opens my eyes b/c it's usually more poo poo. Going to be fun to see carpet bomb SVR's at 4 AM Wednesday. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I bet we end up seeing a marginal risk for svr in a later outlook. The signal for such a line is becoming more impressive. Seeing the 3km so aggressive opens my eyes b/c it's usually more poo poo. Going to be fun to see carpet bomb SVR's at 4 AM Wednesday. I don't know if the threat is widespread enough for SPC to take notice, but CSU machine learning does have a little 5% wind tickling CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Really good consensus around GYX of 4-5 inches before a flip. I'm a little wary because the snow growth zones is so elevated that we can hang on to 15:1 ratios. I really don't know how much snow to expect here in SE Grafton County. Gray just has us under a Hazard Weather Outlook. No high wind advisory nor winter weather advisory. We kind of stick out with all kinds of watches around us. I'm thinking of 5-8" ? Roof loads will become an issue if we don't warm up much tomorrow and then get another storm late week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, OceanStWx said: I don't know if the threat is widespread enough for SPC to take notice, but CSU machine learning does have a little 5% wind tickling CT. Yeah their focus is probably more so mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Looks like that line would be right along the nose of the powerful H5 jet and on the leading edge of steepening lapse rates. This scenario does have support so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 It's one hell of a storm. It's going to be a busy evening watching the game and the severe weather from Houston to the Panhandle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GYX dropped a bunch of the high wind watches they had out this morning. Euro continues to show gusts only along the immediate coast. Will still cause some issues, rain looks to be the biggest factor, another 3" pouring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 23 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah wow very subdued feel for this one. Maybe the 13th cutter will be better? Hmm Yeah thats how I feel about this one as well. Actually the 13th one doesnt look promising for big wind either unfortunately. Hopefully that changes. Even 12/18 was actually pretty run of the mill imby. The 12/23/22 grinch storm 2 years ago had bigger wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I really don't know how much snow to expect here in SE Grafton County. Gray just has us under a Hazard Weather Outlook. No high wind advisory nor winter weather advisory. We kind of stick out with all kinds of watches around us. I'm thinking of 5-8" ? Roof loads will become an issue if we don't warm up much tomorrow and then get another storm late week Yeah, that area of NH is a tough call right now. But none of the wind or flooding threats appear high enough for a headline right now, and snow is likely to remain advisory level so it doesn't need a watch either. So HWO is all you get. Bufkit is all over the place for LEB too. GFS 8 inches, NAM 5, HRRR 1.5 (but the HRRR is awfully close to a blue bomb profile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Sell 3" totals widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, WJX231 said: Yeah thats how I feel about this one as well. Actually the 13th one doesnt look promising for big wind either unfortunately. 12/18 was pretty run of the mill imby Actually. Even the 12/23/22 grinch storm 2 years ago had bigger wind. Where are you located? yeah I agree, not too impressed for either the 10th or 13th locally (wind-wise). 12/18 was also mediocre in the Lowell area, though more wild I-95 and especially SE obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I really don't know how much snow to expect here in SE Grafton County. Gray just has us under a Hazard Weather Outlook. No high wind advisory nor winter weather advisory. We kind of stick out with all kinds of watches around us. I'm thinking of 5-8" ? Roof loads will become an issue if we don't warm up much tomorrow and then get another storm late week My brother in Wolfeboro just sent me this screenshot from 3:14pm. I'm thinking everything will be more north of there. He said he's been checking various reports all day and they're changing by the hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Layman said: My brother in Wolfeboro just sent me this screenshot from 3:14pm. I'm thinking everything will be more north of there. He said he's been checking various reports all day and they're changing by the hour: More for the higher terrain than Wolfeboro proper, but a 4-7" thump before a flip is not out of the question. The tough part about the watch text is that this is a grouping from Carroll County up through the Maine mountains and AUG. So it's a large area and the formatter just averages the totals out to 8-12". Much of that watch will be more like 4-7" or 5-8". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: More for the higher terrain than Wolfeboro proper, but a 4-7" thump before a flip is not out of the question. The tough part about the watch text is that this is a grouping from Carroll County up through the Maine mountains and AUG. So it's a large area and the formatter just averages the totals out to 8-12". Much of that watch will be more like 4-7" or 5-8". He had a couple good sized trees come down in the mid-Dec storm. Ground is still saturated up there and with the 12" he got yesterday, he's thinking things could get hairy tomorrow night. If they get a few inches of snow before the flip, it'll be interesting to see what he holds onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now