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1/9-1/10 Now Morphing to Less-Than-Exciting Power Cutter


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not sure what media is saying or what's going around social media but I hope this is being hit hard...especially since we had a few events (though last one was certainly more impressive) this season which were hyped like crazy and we're meh except locally. This one should be widespread impact IMO.

I don’t pay much attention elsewhere either, but the GP probably is checked out. I can’t remember the last time we had a setup like this meaning rapid snow melt coupled with a potential flash flood event. Wind is a whole other story obviously with some uncertainty but hydro is a lock. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t pay much attention elsewhere either, but the GP probably is checked out. I can’t remember the last time we had a setup like this meaning rapid snow melt coupled with a potential flash flood event. Wind is a whole other story obviously with some uncertainty but hydro is a lock. 

Yeah I can't remember something like this either. Right on the heels of a massive snow event and in a situation where the ground is already extremely saturated. 

I am becoming more concerned with the wind potential. The sustained winds are going to be super impressive, but we'll have a 3-5 hour window where I think we get widespread 40-60 mph wind gusts. 

We'll be dealing with widespread river/stream flooding, poor drainage/low lying flooding, and widespread power outages. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Can we pin this so folks see it and post in it instead of the Jan thread ?

I didn't even know we had a 'screamer thread' until somebody pointed it out in the Jan thread lol.

 

Euro keeping it coast only... in Maine anyway.

Screenshot 2024-01-08 123223.png

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I can't remember something like this either. Right on the heels of a massive snow event and in a situation where the ground is already extremely saturated. 

I am becoming more concerned with the wind potential. The sustained winds are going to be super impressive, but we'll have a 3-5 hour window where I think we get widespread 40-60 mph wind gusts. 

We'll be dealing with widespread river/stream flooding, poor drainage/low lying flooding, and widespread power outages. 

Not trying to be flippant, but didn't we deal with exactly this in the Dec 17-18, 2023 storm a few weeks back?  Or are you talking more IMBY? 

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't see much of a damaging wind threat. Soundings look far more inverted than the last couple events. 

This is what I am really torn on...bufkit soundings are largely unimpressive. But NBM is very bullish with the wind potential. My concern with this event is that bufkit is underplaying the wind potential because it tends to struggle with the mixing aspect when it's spitting out heavy rain. 

I think if we do get temps into the lower 50's and dews at least upper 40's it's game on for wind. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

We did, but I think preceding conditions make this an even higher impact event. 

Are you thinking winds are likely to be more apt to verify with this one?

Not looking forward to that.  Already got the text from Eversource saying prepare for outages...

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can we pin this so folks see it and post in it instead of the Jan thread ?

Agreed,

@dendrite please pin this thread. It keeps getting lost in the other pinned threads and it's a bit noisy on the brain trying to find this with some super long thread titles mixed in. 

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Just now, Layman said:

Are you thinking winds are likely to be more apt to verify with this one?

Not looking forward to that.  Already got the text from Eversource saying prepare for outages...

I'm thinking the sustained nature of the winds is what will be most impressive (in the 20-30+ mph range). 

The wind gust potential I am a bit torn on, but siding to the idea that we will see a few hour period where gusts get 50-60 across the entire region. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is what I am really torn on...bufkit soundings are largely unimpressive. But NBM is very bullish with the wind potential. My concern with this event is that bufkit is underplaying the wind potential because it tends to struggle with the mixing aspect when it's spitting out heavy rain. 

I think if we do get temps into the lower 50's and dews at least upper 40's it's game on for wind. 

I’m kind of with Ryan on the lesser wind threat, but would certainly highlight the potential. Flood threat looks higher end to me.

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8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS has widespread 2-3" of qpf

Euro says similar

We have 9" pack with ~1" LE and the current thoughts from GYX suggest that the first inch will be white.  Thursday morning we might see about the same depth as before, but with twice the LE.  Of course, if the snow was followed by 2-3" RA at 50°, everything goes downriver and we get another Dec 18, though with less wind.  Highly unlikely.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I think I'd lop a few off those clowns. There's a couple hours there that look like rain on the soundings and the ptype maps are showing snow/mix.

That would be the wise move.  Not buying anything on the clowns.

But at least it isn't 100% rain on the models.  I just want to keep the rain away until around 9PM

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