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1/9-1/10 Now Morphing to Less-Than-Exciting Power Cutter


Torch Tiger
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16 minutes ago, WJX231 said:

Oh wow really? I figured 1938 was stronger but the records didnt go back that far. Where did you find that out? I compliled this list for PVD:

 

Days with a maximum sustained wind speed of ≥ 45 mph (72 km/h) – (1942 – 2023):

1. 08/31/1954 - 75 mph

2. 03/06/1959 - 53 mph

3. 09/27/1985 - 52 mph

4. 09/12/1960 - 51 mph

5. 12/02/1942 & 09/11/1954 - 50 mph

7. 08/04/2015 - 48 mph

8. 11/21/1956, 11/28/1958 & 03/02/2018 - 47 mph

11. 11/07/1953, 03/20/1958, 12/30/1962, 12/13/1976, 01/26/1978, 12/24/1994, 03/06/1997, 02/08/2013, 10/29/2017 & 10/27/2021 - 46 mph

21. 02/16/1967, 01/23/2005 & 12/23/2022 - 45 mph

 

Days with a maximum wind gust of ≥ 64 mph (103 km/h) – (1953 – 2023):

1. 08/31/1954 - 105 mph

2. 09/12/1960 & 09/27/1985 - 81 mph

4. 09/11/1954 - 79 mph

5. 12/20/2009 - 74 mph

6. 09/14/1956 & 01/26/1978 - 73 mph

8. 03/20/1958 & 11/28/1958 - 71 mph

10. 03/06/1959 - 70 mph

11. 12/07/1953, 11/09/1957, 11/30/1963 & 02/16/1967 - 68 mph

15. 02/06/1978 - 67 mph

16. 12/30/1962, 08/04/2015 & 01/29/2022 - 66 mph

19. 03/02/2018 - 65 mph

20. 12/24/1994, 08/28/2011 & 12/23/2022 - 64 mph

 

Yeah I'm not really sure exactly where records were pre-'42, but it's on the NWS 1938 write-up

https://www.weather.gov/box/1938hurricane

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Wind Signals...

Confidence still is the highest at this point for strong to damaging
winds. The latest NAEFS/EPS guidance keeps trending upward.
Currently showing winds 4-6 STD above model climatology! Ensembles
indicating this at the 850 hPa level, which are progged at this
point by deterministic guidance with speeds of 60-90+ kts generally
out of the south. The big question is how much of these winds mix
down. At this point are only starting to get on the outer periphery
of the NAM guidance for Bufkit soundings, so have focused on the GFS
Bufkit soundings for now. At this point they show 60-70 kts of winds
roughly 500-1000 ft AGL across the Cape/Islands. Further inland
values are still nothing to scoff at with 40-50 kts roughly 1000 ft
AGL. Would like to get more of a look at the NAM and convective
allowing guidance window to have a better feel on the mixing, as the
GFS tends to overmix. Given the signals have still stuck with the
higher NBM guidance (tends to overdue winds). The EPS guidance
continuing to indicate moderate to high probs (40-100%) of gusts AOA
50 kts across the eastern MA coast. Further inland probs are low to
moderate (<10 to 40%) from eastern CT into RI and eastern portions
of central MA. The EPS also still showing low to moderate (10-60%)
probs of gusts AOA 64 kts across SE MA, Cape Ann and the waters.
Anticipate that High Wind Watches will be needed in later updates
for the land. Looks like there will be at least Storm Force gusts,
but may actually be a situation where we need Hurricane Force Wind
Watches in later updates. For context last time we needed to issue a
Hurricane Force Wind Watch (or Warning) was in March of 2018.
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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you post these you should really state where because for most SNE posters this is nothing but a warm high wind flooding rainer 

The gfs isn't really a good thump anywhere south of the NH/VT border anyway. And then it gets washed out immediately by torrential rains.

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39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The severe storm for later Tuesday into Wednesday (January 9-10) remains on track. In terms of deviations from normal, both in terms of precipitation and wind, it will be an infrequent event.

Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) data is below.

Wind Gusts:

image.png.7d6a9b833453f20d1b4993f6869df48b.png

Precipitation:

image.png.223ef68a58160f70f9d2469c0c7f3f40.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was wondering where you went in this thread . Celebrating your 17” of snow ?

not much to discuss, as the storm looks well-modeled.  quick shot of snow for a few, over to heavy heavy rain and hopefully some wild winds.  We'll see, but I'm very excited

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

3km NAM… this one feels like a storm for the meso-models.  Tight thermals, rain, sleet, snow.

Part of me wonders if the global models are over extending the amount of snowfall over wide areas.

IMG_7380.thumb.png.10ada0c8e457f7e4fa004c7045755919.png

It's also a clown map problem.

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