codfishsnowman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Rain with a few cat paws 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Soundings do not look conducive to a damaging southerly wind event. Certainly nowhere near as impressive as the 12/18 event. If we get damaging wind it would be from a QLCS but there's very little instability modeled. I don't see much in most areas the way it looks right now. Yup, agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Yeah this one and the 1/13 sultan slicer both look meh for winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 These will be fun to bump tomorrow morning . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Have we reached a few hours after sunrise yet? Asking for a religious friend. High of 32.2 here so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Layman said: Have we reached a few hours after sunrise yet? Asking for a religious friend. High of 32.2 here so far today. Looks melty. Stay safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yup, agree. Also 3km NAM is showing widespread 50-60 knot gusts around DC at 21z. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, CT Rain said: Also 3km NAM is showing widespread 50-60 knot gusts around DC at 21z. Not happening. Even BOX says it: Overall, we think this wind event will not be quite as strong as the Dec 17-18 storm as the low level jet is a bit weaker and not as expansive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Even BOX says it: Overall, we think this wind event will not be quite as strong as the Dec 17-18 storm as the low level jet is a bit weaker and not as expansive. You don’t listen to anything they say .. remember ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It’s time to get back to tracking snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You don’t listen to anything they say .. remember ? Started as plain rain and your 60 kt gusts are going to bust. Tough day. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Man, it looks bleak outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Started as plain rain and your 60 kt gusts are going to bust. Tough day. I’m thinking my area gusts 55-58 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I'm not totally sure I completely agree with that assessment of the LLJ. It certainly isn't as expansive as Dec 17-18 but I don't think it is weaker but that is also relative based on where you're comparing too. In that event, mixing was aided with the expansive warmer temperatures which muted the inversion. Now I get we have the snow cover and that is going to fight back the warmth a bit, but there is still a good signal we get 50's into a good part of CT on east. At least to me, there is a much stronger signal for convection than Dec 17-18. While soundings aren't impressive in terms of mixing we have to look at the potential for convection to draw down these winds - so yes, convection or bust in terms of winds. I don't think bufkit handles situations very well where its torrential rain with wind potential. Take a look at tropical systems...if you look at bufkit profiles for tropical, you'll see bufkit subdue the wind big time when it has torrential rain falling. Sfc instability isn't great at all, but we do get some elevated instability with TT's also pushing into the upper 40's and LI's crashing down towards the lower single digits. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here’s the whole wind discussion (still think hydro is the headline) Strong winds... Hi-res guidance is indicating 80-90 kt low level jet at 925 mb across SE New Eng, peaking 06-10z and moving east of the Cape by 12z. This jet peaks at 5-6SD above normal and the NAEFS ensemble mean 850 mb wind is greater than the maximum of the CFSR climate database for this time of year. While this is a very strong signal for strong to damaging wind, there is some uncertainty with how much wind will mix down due to low level inversion which is usually the case with S/SE flow. One strong signal that we normally see with damaging S/SE wind events is anomalous low pres tracking to the west with strong pressure falls. We certainly have this for this event. In fact, guidance is forecasting 8-11 mb pres falls in 3 hours late tonight which is quite impressive and this will help to enhance the winds due to the isallobaric acceleration. Our current thinking is peak gusts 55-65 mph near the south coast through SE MA and Cape Ann, focused in the midnight to 6 am period. An examination of model soundings indicate that we need to reach the mid 50s to erode inversion enough to support these gusts. If temps only reach lower 50s, winds will probably underperform with gusts more in the 45-55 mph range. The other wildcard is all the hi-res guidance sources are indicating some sort of fine line moving through 08-12z which will help to enhance wind gusts. In fact, CSU machine learning severe wx probs are indicating a low risk of severe wind. Overall, we think this wind event will not be quite as strong as the Dec 17-18 storm as the low level jet is a bit weaker and not as expansive. Less wind further inland across interior northern and western MA as snowpack will help to keep temps cooler (mainly mid/upper 40s) keeping inversion in place. Expecting peak gusts mainly 35-45 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hmm… Wiz and Kev excited. Ryan and Scott are not. I know where I stand(wind will be a non factor), but will be interesting to see which pair is more correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The convection part is always overrated. Unless you have these weenie cells flying parallel to the flow, they tend not to do well when the line is perpendicular to the flow. Maybe if you get a crescent shape-like bow (QLCS like Ryan said) or a meso low to form you could. But the overall environment does not seem as favorable for synoptic winds. If you look back at the big 2/25/16 outbreak, there were a lot of cells flying NNE and causing damaging wind gusts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 radar looks awesome for a nice thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, WinterWolf said: Hmm… Wiz and Kev excited. Ryan and Scott are not. I know where I stand(wind will be a non factor), but will be interesting to see which pair is more correct. I see what Wiz is saying. I guess for me, I would rather see a better synoptic environment for winds other than hoping convection does it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Hmm… Wiz and Kev excited. Ryan and Scott are not. I know where I stand(wind will be a non factor), but will be interesting to see which pair is more correct. I don’t and never have thought 60-65 knots like Chris stated. 55-60 mph sure . We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Radar looks like a mix even near Dave. Maybe wet flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 31° Light freezing rain and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I’d sell the snow in MA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d sell the snow in MA lol its snowing now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: lol its snowing now I mean the 2-4/3-6 you’re thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I mean the 2-4/3-6 you’re thinking we'll see but looks like we get a good burst soon.. pavement and cars starting to whiten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I mean the 2-4/3-6 you’re thinking Nice nite for damage in Jackson ,Nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm not totally sure I completely agree with that assessment of the LLJ. It certainly isn't as expansive as Dec 17-18 but I don't think it is weaker but that is also relative based on where you're comparing too. In that event, mixing was aided with the expansive warmer temperatures which muted the inversion. Now I get we have the snow cover and that is going to fight back the warmth a bit, but there is still a good signal we get 50's into a good part of CT on east. At least to me, there is a much stronger signal for convection than Dec 17-18. While soundings aren't impressive in terms of mixing we have to look at the potential for convection to draw down these winds - so yes, convection or bust in terms of winds. I don't think bufkit handles situations very well where its torrential rain with wind potential. Take a look at tropical systems...if you look at bufkit profiles for tropical, you'll see bufkit subdue the wind big time when it has torrential rain falling. Sfc instability isn't great at all, but we do get some elevated instability with TT's also pushing into the upper 40's and LI's crashing down towards the lower single digits. We'll see. I don't have the modeled LLJ for 12/18, but you can see the difference a bit in the EFI product. Remember this product isn't as simple as extreme = big wind, it just means unusual for this time of year. Much bigger CAD signal for this event. Also a much bigger downslope signal. The shift of tails (black lines, and the real indication of the higher end gusts) also are inverted for this event. Instead of values near 1 across the interior to the coast of Maine, they are all focused in the northwest downslope zones. I would be more surprised if GYX pops a 50 kt gusts than BTV. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 28 mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Pushing the "CAD" over 3-4K mtns thanks to the LLJ will certainly create the "hey I'm colder than everything else" at the summit and help with downhill acceleration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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