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1/9-1/10 Now Morphing to Less-Than-Exciting Power Cutter


Torch Tiger
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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really think it is a distinct possibility we see widespread gusts 50-60 mph and some gusts 60-65 overnight with the line moving northeast. The mesos are really consistent in a fine line moving northeast across much of CT and points northeast. 
 

If we can get temperatures to spike in the lower 50’s that will really help I think. Latest HRRR even has some 54-55…that would certainly be sufficient. 

It is a very small window these gusts occur but it would produce damage and power outages. 

HRRRX has been ramping up each run tonight if folks  have noticed 

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Quick raob check, OKX had 55 knots at 925 mb. Assuming they launched on time around 23z, that's about 5 knots lower than the RAP (which is fed into the HRRR). NAM doesn't have 23z data, but knocking it's 00z forecast down a few knots has it forecasting 925 winds about 10-15 knots too high at this hour (similarly the GFS). 

Now it could just be a delay in the LLJ, but I think it's more likely the stronger winds are just more elevated than modeled.

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Quick raob check, OKX had 55 knots at 925 mb. Assuming they launched on time around 23z, that's about 5 knots lower than the RAP (which is fed into the HRRR). NAM doesn't have 23z data, but knocking it's 00z forecast down a few knots has it forecasting 925 winds about 10-15 knots too high at this hour (similarly the GFS). 

Now it could just be a delay in the LLJ, but I think it's more likely the stronger winds are just more elevated than modeled.

Some in here don’t like facts if you catch my drift.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

None of that is gonna happen here lol..too funny.  OKX is a barrier island..last time I looked, none of us in interior SNE live on a barrier island. 

Long Island is a barrier island lol, we protect Connecticut. You’re welcome. 

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