dryslot Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think I'd lop a few off those clowns. There's a couple hours there that look like rain on the soundings and the ptype maps are showing snow/mix. 3-4" not out of the question, I would sell the higher amounts in places that are closer to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That would be the wise move. Not buying anything on the clowns. But at least it isn't 100% rain on the models. I just want to keep the rain away until around 9PM ineedclowns keeps posting all of these runs that "look nice" and then I look and they're all meh to me. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: ineedclowns keeps posting all of these runs that "look nice" and then I look and they're all meh to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Eversource better have out of state crews heading to New England for what’s coming https://x.com/eversourcect/status/1744426629798019224?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3-4" not out of the question, I would sell the higher amounts in places that are closer to the coast. Yeah I could see advisory type numbers. It gets iffy here around midnight Tue night. This is the goofus for here... Date: 42 hour GFS valid 6Z WED 10 JAN 24 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 23 SFC 970 266 2.0 1.7 98 0.3 1.9 110 16 277.5 278.3 276.5 289.7 4.46 2 950 438 1.3 1.0 98 0.3 1.2 118 33 278.5 279.2 276.9 290.4 4.33 3 900 872 -0.6 -0.7 100 0.0 -0.7 124 49 280.8 281.5 277.7 292.1 4.04 4 850 1328 -1.1 -1.2 99 0.1 -1.2 140 67 285.0 285.7 279.8 296.6 4.11 5 800 1812 -0.4 -0.5 99 0.1 -0.4 163 78 290.7 291.6 283.0 304.1 4.62 6 750 2329 -1.0 -1.1 99 0.1 -1.1 180 85 295.5 296.3 285.1 309.3 4.70 7 700 2879 -2.1 -2.3 99 0.1 -2.2 196 85 300.1 301.0 286.7 314.0 4.62 8 650 3467 -3.4 -3.7 98 0.3 -3.6 210 78 305.1 305.9 288.3 318.8 4.46 9 600 4097 -6.3 -6.8 96 0.5 -6.5 219 68 308.8 309.6 289.0 320.8 3.83 10 550 4773 -9.9 -10.4 96 0.5 -10.1 223 61 312.3 312.9 289.5 322.4 3.15 11 500 5503 -13.8 -14.2 97 0.4 -14.0 219 55 316.2 316.7 290.1 324.5 2.54 If we can hold the BL cold a little longer maybe we can overperform and get into that 4-6" zone, but it's going to start getting worse than 10:1 before the official flip to RA. It's going to be a slopfest by the time I wake up at 5am...not looking forward to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Yeah I'm just not that impressed with this one honestly. Maybe it overperforms but not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 My take away is that the large scale set up only allows the colder solutions to verify to some small extent. But perhaps the antecedent air mass and the thick snow cover allows us to maximize the frozen and maybe the rain isn’t as much as feared. If I get four or 5 inches of snow, and then a half an inch of rain, I think that would be a huge victory, particularly since it’s so fast moving, and we cool down after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I could see advisory type numbers. It gets iffy here around midnight Tue night. This is the goofus for here... Date: 42 hour GFS valid 6Z WED 10 JAN 24 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 23 SFC 970 266 2.0 1.7 98 0.3 1.9 110 16 277.5 278.3 276.5 289.7 4.46 2 950 438 1.3 1.0 98 0.3 1.2 118 33 278.5 279.2 276.9 290.4 4.33 3 900 872 -0.6 -0.7 100 0.0 -0.7 124 49 280.8 281.5 277.7 292.1 4.04 4 850 1328 -1.1 -1.2 99 0.1 -1.2 140 67 285.0 285.7 279.8 296.6 4.11 5 800 1812 -0.4 -0.5 99 0.1 -0.4 163 78 290.7 291.6 283.0 304.1 4.62 6 750 2329 -1.0 -1.1 99 0.1 -1.1 180 85 295.5 296.3 285.1 309.3 4.70 7 700 2879 -2.1 -2.3 99 0.1 -2.2 196 85 300.1 301.0 286.7 314.0 4.62 8 650 3467 -3.4 -3.7 98 0.3 -3.6 210 78 305.1 305.9 288.3 318.8 4.46 9 600 4097 -6.3 -6.8 96 0.5 -6.5 219 68 308.8 309.6 289.0 320.8 3.83 10 550 4773 -9.9 -10.4 96 0.5 -10.1 223 61 312.3 312.9 289.5 322.4 3.15 11 500 5503 -13.8 -14.2 97 0.4 -14.0 219 55 316.2 316.7 290.1 324.5 2.54 If we can hold the BL cold a little longer maybe we can overperform and get into that 4-6" zone, but it's going to start getting worse than 10:1 before the official flip to RA. It's going to be a slopfest by the time I wake up at 5am...not looking forward to it. Gets a little warm @H95 i see there, But we may hold onto the CAD a bit longer, Looks like today's runs has the CAD a bit further south so it will take a bit longer to scour it out, Don't mind getting a few to sacrifice to the rain that follows, Should hold on to some of it here hopefully but i didn't see as much here as your area did yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eversource better have out of state crews heading to New England for what’s coming https://x.com/eversourcect/status/1744426629798019224?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Per Ryan and Scooter doesn’t appear to be a big wind event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: ineedclowns keeps posting all of these runs that "look nice" and then I look and they're all meh to me. Well, the Pivotal clown does drop 6-7" as snow on the 10:1 for his backyard, but I would sell that Your area looks good, although I can't see the soundings there (and can barely understand them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Modfan2 said: Per Ryan and Scooter doesn’t appear to be a big wind event I always sell the wind here…unless tropical. 12/18 a few weeks ago wasn’t even all that impressive here(gusty for sure and a couple house rattlers), but nothing all that impressive. I know other areas had lots of damage with that one, but I’m just saying for my town. So I’ll sell any damaging winds for now. If it ends up to be damaging, I’ll gladly say I was wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yes! We jack rains very well out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I always sell the wind here…unless tropical. 12/18 a few weeks ago wasn’t even all that impressive here(gusty for sure and a couple house rattlers), but nothing all that impressive. I know other areas had lots of damage with that one, but I’m just saying for my town. So I’ll sell any damaging winds for now. If it ends up to be damaging, I’ll gladly say I was wrong. Yea for some reason non tropical related winds in WCT away from the water fail time and time again. Even the one from pre xmas DIT wacked off to, my gusts maxed out in the mid 40s. The twig and small branch damage was all a nuisance. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 WPC has 70% probs for 8” + for areas like Jackson NH and NNE hundreds of miles into N Maine . has 50% of 6” SW down to Newfound Lake 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 10 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Per Ryan and Scooter doesn’t appear to be a big wind event It may not be in the valley . I know how these perform in this general area. Lived thru so many of them Nam has 45-50 knot winds in the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: WPC has 70% probs for 8” + for areas like Jackson NH and NNE hundreds of miles into N Maine . has 50% of 6” SW down to Newfound Lake Thinking the North Conway area could do really well. 12” then a bit of rain to lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Well, the Pivotal clown does drop 6-7" as snow on the 10:1 for his backyard, but I would sell that Your area looks good, although I can't see the soundings there (and can barely understand them) Euro soundings for north ORH Co look like snow through 02-03z, maybe 04z on the border. So, maybe 0.3"-0.5" qpf. I'm still on the skeptical side, but its been fairly consistent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, wx2fish said: Euro soundings for north ORH Co look like snow through 02-03z, maybe 04z on the border. So, maybe 0.3"-0.5" qpf. I'm still on the skeptical side, but its been fairly consistent. I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just got the automated Eversource call warning of outages . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eversource better have out of state crews heading to New England for what’s coming https://x.com/eversourcect/status/1744426629798019224?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg I already got the Eversource text on my phone to prepare for power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just got the automated Eversource call warning of outages . I don't think it will be anywhere near 12/18 but should be a mess for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3k NAM (for all that it is worth, which is to say not much) has a nice line blasting through aroun 10z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I already got the Eversource text on my phone to prepare for power outages. https://x.com/wxbriand/status/1744407824937926681?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/wxbriand/status/1744407824937926681?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Fortunately I’m in the valley and tucked behind a hill. I think the high elevations around here are going to get rocked for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 50-60 isn't a huge deal. Typical. The one on 12/18 was 65+ in many areas. That is when there are issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just got the automated Eversource call warning of outages . Well a dog fart in Moosup can knock the power out in CT. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don't think it will be anywhere near 12/18 but should be a mess for some I'm seeing pros and cons. So far the magnitude of LLJ is not as high and not as consistent across the model suite. We have CAD in this event that just wasn't present on 12/18. It's a much more inverted sounding, so mixing will be more difficult. However, this event has more convection modeled that 12/18, and it could be all it takes to mix out the inversion briefly. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 50-60 isn't a huge deal. Typical. The one on 12/18 was 65+ in many areas. That is when there are issues. We've also been discussing the impact of where those 50-60 mph winds occur. Relatively speaking we had fewer outages along the coast, where 50-60 mph happens a few times a year. But from I-95 into the mountains the grid was wrecked, because those kinds of wind speeds are not common. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIsound Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I would only add a perspective in my backyard. 12/18 destroyed significant dunes along RI coast. major over wash happened. there has been no time to let nature try to rebuild. If we get sustained winds and ocean builds, we absolutely will have coastal flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I wouldn't be surprised if GYX's current high end map is realized. It's going to come in up here with a hell of a thump and could easily hang on to that cold air longer than expected. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm seeing pros and cons. So far the magnitude of LLJ is not as high and not as consistent across the model suite. We have CAD in this event that just wasn't present on 12/18. It's a much more inverted sounding, so mixing will be more difficult. However, this event has more convection modeled that 12/18, and it could be all it takes to mix out the inversion briefly. We've also been discussing the impact of where those 50-60 mph winds occur. Relatively speaking we had fewer outages along the coast, where 50-60 mph happens a few times a year. But from I-95 into the mountains the grid was wrecked, because those kinds of wind speeds are not common. I may be off, but I am pretty sure that one screamer we all had in 96 had a line of convection where all hell broke loose with massive gusts .. despite 1-4 feet OTG prior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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