Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 With fresh snow on ground…. Would think the low levels would be inverted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Still looks inverted on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: With fresh snow on ground…. Would think the low levels would be inverted. Yeah…especially up our way where we’ll CAD for a bit. All of that melting snow latently cools at the surface so there’s a lot that’s going against big wind up here. Downslope areas will be favored. DIT should do better as well since the S flow has no problem ripping through there. I’m not even trolling either. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah…especially up our way where we’ll CAD for a bit. All of that melting snow latently cools at the surface so there’s a lot that’s going against big wind up here. Downslope areas will be favored. DIT should do better as well since the S flow has no problem ripping through there. I’m not even trolling either. lol Lol . You are correct. This area has nothing between our hills and the ocean except IJD and flat so the wind roars out of the scream direction . That’s typically why I like to lean higher in gusts . The snow otg is semi valid. But Jan 96 with 70+ gusts for the whole region with feet OTG says it is possible . We’ll see how it shakes out . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: 6z 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Looks like most of the heaviest rain and wind are in Western sections of CT/Wmass into NY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Still looks inverted on soundings. And hopefully a quick mover.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 https://x.com/bobmaxon/status/1744347443909550142?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3km NAM has a nice looking low topped forced line moving through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: With fresh snow on ground…. Would think the low levels would be inverted. Starts cold, snowpack, ext. For us locally, I don't see much. Think itll take some time to warm sector and it may not be for very long. Only hailmary is if there's a low topped squall line like the 3k nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: With fresh snow on ground…. Would think the low levels would be inverted. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Still looks inverted on soundings. yeah I was just looking through several soundings and don't really see anything indicative of good mixing (unless of course we get convection) but it seems on the inverted side at times and saturated with awful lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This is pretty interesting. Bufkit isn't all that impressive with the wind potential but I was looking at NBM and its pretty wild for some locations. Not sure what to make of it yet really. It's obviously all going to come down to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 In terms of wind, the sustained winds may be more impressive than the gusts. But that certainly still keeps concern for tree damage/power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: In terms of wind, the sustained winds may be more impressive than the gusts. But that certainly still keeps concern for tree damage/power outages. will winds be out of the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: will winds be out of the south? yeah they'll be southerly... probably begin more southeast and then become more southerly. That line the 3km has though has me really intrigued. If something like that were to occur we probably would see widespread wind gusts 50-70 mph just ahead of that line as it moved east-northeast across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I'm kind of surprised (though I guess I shouldn't be) this thread isn't getting more attention. Perhaps it's because we're right on the heels of this past weekend's event and everyone is exhausted, but this is going to be a very high impact storm. The flooding, particularly river and stream flooding is going to be very bad. Looking at a widespread 2-4'' of rain and I'm sure we'll see a strip of 5-7'' totals. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm kind of surprised (though I guess I shouldn't be) this thread isn't getting more attention. Perhaps it's because we're right on the heels of this past weekend's event and everyone is exhausted, but this is going to be a very high impact storm. The flooding, particularly river and stream flooding is going to be very bad. Looking at a widespread 2-4'' of rain and I'm sure we'll see a strip of 5-7'' totals. Can you post what you are seeing for rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I'm kind of surprised (though I guess I shouldn't be) this thread isn't getting more attention. Perhaps it's because we're right on the heels of this past weekend's event and everyone is exhausted, but this is going to be a very high impact storm. The flooding, particularly river and stream flooding is going to be very bad. Looking at a widespread 2-4'' of rain and I'm sure we'll see a strip of 5-7'' totals. Just finished Mikes weather pages morning live and was shocked that it hasn’t been much to read up on here yet he’s way to more vastly focused along the entire east coast. We basement flood during heavy rainers when the grounds saturated or frozen so I keep worrying . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Can you post what you are seeing for rain? Pretty much all guidance is a widespread 2-3'' of rain across an extensive area. Some of the mesos are spitting out strips of 3-4''. Based on the likelihood that there will be convective elements, plus some orographic influences, degree of lift, I think there will be some pockets of higher totals. It's pretty wild to see how widespread the rainfall totals are on all guidance. The wind signal too is quite concerning, though very uncertain. But I think we are going to see significant flooding and not just localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 For wind potential where temperatures rise into the 50's and dewpoints get into the lower 50's that's where there could be a period of damaging wind gusts. I could see widespread power outages unfolding tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z 3K Nam ups the ante on winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty much all guidance is a widespread 2-3'' of rain across an extensive area. Some of the mesos are spitting out strips of 3-4''. Based on the likelihood that there will be convective elements, plus some orographic influences, degree of lift, I think there will be some pockets of higher totals. It's pretty wild to see how widespread the rainfall totals are on all guidance. The wind signal too is quite concerning, though very uncertain. But I think we are going to see significant flooding and not just localized. 12z stuff definitely likes CT for the higher rain totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 BTV's max gust map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: 12z stuff definitely likes CT for the higher rain totals Yeah and it makes some degree of sense I think. Looks like we get a second low to pop across eastern NY, this alone would limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front. The extent of snow cover should also limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front (or at least slow it). All in all if that sfc warm front sets up and stalls across CT, there will be enhanced llvl forcing and enhanced moisture advection from the LLJ. PWAT anomalies are +5-6SD!!! The more I look into the 12z guidance the more concerned I am becoming. This one is going to be extremely ugly I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: 12z stuff definitely likes CT for the higher rain totals I believe Tip mentioned earlier if the higher totals can be achieved do to the progressive nature of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I believe Tip mentioned earlier if the higher totals can be achieved do to the progressive nature of the system I think there is enough convective elements and mesoscale features for the higher totals to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah and it makes some degree of sense I think. Looks like we get a second low to pop across eastern NY, this alone would limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front. The extent of snow cover should also limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front (or at least slow it). All in all if that sfc warm front sets up and stalls across CT, there will be enhanced llvl forcing and enhanced moisture advection from the LLJ. PWAT anomalies are +5-6SD!!! The more I look into the 12z guidance the more concerned I am becoming. This one is going to be extremely ugly I think. I agree. This one has some high potential. Folks won’t be ready given yesterday’s event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I agree. This one has some high potential. Folks won’t be ready given yesterday’s event. I'm not sure what media is saying or what's going around social media but I hope this is being hit hard...especially since we had a few events (though last one was certainly more impressive) this season which were hyped like crazy and we're meh except locally. This one should be widespread impact IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Thread sound be getting way more attention, TBH. Everyone has seen a foot of snow, not everyone has seen what's coming tomorrow into Weds 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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