Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 16 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Oh wow really? I figured 1938 was stronger but the records didnt go back that far. Where did you find that out? I compliled this list for PVD: Days with a maximum sustained wind speed of ≥ 45 mph (72 km/h) – (1942 – 2023): 1. 08/31/1954 - 75 mph 2. 03/06/1959 - 53 mph 3. 09/27/1985 - 52 mph 4. 09/12/1960 - 51 mph 5. 12/02/1942 & 09/11/1954 - 50 mph 7. 08/04/2015 - 48 mph 8. 11/21/1956, 11/28/1958 & 03/02/2018 - 47 mph 11. 11/07/1953, 03/20/1958, 12/30/1962, 12/13/1976, 01/26/1978, 12/24/1994, 03/06/1997, 02/08/2013, 10/29/2017 & 10/27/2021 - 46 mph 21. 02/16/1967, 01/23/2005 & 12/23/2022 - 45 mph Days with a maximum wind gust of ≥ 64 mph (103 km/h) – (1953 – 2023): 1. 08/31/1954 - 105 mph 2. 09/12/1960 & 09/27/1985 - 81 mph 4. 09/11/1954 - 79 mph 5. 12/20/2009 - 74 mph 6. 09/14/1956 & 01/26/1978 - 73 mph 8. 03/20/1958 & 11/28/1958 - 71 mph 10. 03/06/1959 - 70 mph 11. 12/07/1953, 11/09/1957, 11/30/1963 & 02/16/1967 - 68 mph 15. 02/06/1978 - 67 mph 16. 12/30/1962, 08/04/2015 & 01/29/2022 - 66 mph 19. 03/02/2018 - 65 mph 20. 12/24/1994, 08/28/2011 & 12/23/2022 - 64 mph Yeah I'm not really sure exactly where records were pre-'42, but it's on the NWS 1938 write-up https://www.weather.gov/box/1938hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 https://x.com/accuweather/status/1743697230895210987?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Wind Signals... Confidence still is the highest at this point for strong to damaging winds. The latest NAEFS/EPS guidance keeps trending upward. Currently showing winds 4-6 STD above model climatology! Ensembles indicating this at the 850 hPa level, which are progged at this point by deterministic guidance with speeds of 60-90+ kts generally out of the south. The big question is how much of these winds mix down. At this point are only starting to get on the outer periphery of the NAM guidance for Bufkit soundings, so have focused on the GFS Bufkit soundings for now. At this point they show 60-70 kts of winds roughly 500-1000 ft AGL across the Cape/Islands. Further inland values are still nothing to scoff at with 40-50 kts roughly 1000 ft AGL. Would like to get more of a look at the NAM and convective allowing guidance window to have a better feel on the mixing, as the GFS tends to overmix. Given the signals have still stuck with the higher NBM guidance (tends to overdue winds). The EPS guidance continuing to indicate moderate to high probs (40-100%) of gusts AOA 50 kts across the eastern MA coast. Further inland probs are low to moderate (<10 to 40%) from eastern CT into RI and eastern portions of central MA. The EPS also still showing low to moderate (10-60%) probs of gusts AOA 64 kts across SE MA, Cape Ann and the waters. Anticipate that High Wind Watches will be needed in later updates for the land. Looks like there will be at least Storm Force gusts, but may actually be a situation where we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in later updates. For context last time we needed to issue a Hurricane Force Wind Watch (or Warning) was in March of 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The fact that the 1/7 storm has really underperformed here makes me want this to be a severe wind event even more. But we will see. 9/10 times winds fail to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z ICON is nice with the front end here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Official theme song of this thread: "Wolfie thought to build a pack, but DIT's screamer washed it all away" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z GFS is a nice thump 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z GFS is a nice thump When you post these you should really state where because for most SNE posters this is nothing but a warm high wind flooding rainer 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When you post these you should really state where because for most SNE posters this is nothing but a warm high wind flooding rainer The gfs isn't really a good thump anywhere south of the NH/VT border anyway. And then it gets washed out immediately by torrential rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Nam , Euro and GFS all have huge winds . We’ll see how this plays out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The severe storm for later Tuesday into Wednesday (January 9-10) remains on track. In terms of deviations from normal, both in terms of precipitation and wind, it will be an infrequent event. Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) data is below. Wind Gusts: Precipitation: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: wow looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: wow looks good! Was wondering where you went in this thread . Celebrating your 17” of snow ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 https://x.com/tymetwx/status/1744145496191504769?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was wondering where you went in this thread . Celebrating your 17” of snow ? not much to discuss, as the storm looks well-modeled. quick shot of snow for a few, over to heavy heavy rain and hopefully some wild winds. We'll see, but I'm very excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 https://x.com/ryanbretonwx/status/1744155563057930440?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/tymetwx/status/1744145496191504769?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Yeah incredible setup, nevermind the tornadoes, there's probably going to be a crazy wild straight-line wind event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah incredible setup, nevermind the tornadoes, there's probably going to be a crazy wild straight-line wind event for many. Any particular analogs for this that come to mind? I mean for us, not for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Any particular analogs for this that come to mind? I mean for us, not for the south. I haven't looked into it too much but here's CIPS Day 3 Top 5 Most Similar Analogs 1. 20100203/0000 2. 19970107/0000 3. 20030220/0000 4. 20091130/0000 5. 19870117/0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This storm come midweek will be more memorable than the 16" I got from this storm, which is unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 to 5 here before we flood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: that would be sumpim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Posted strictly for weenie purposes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Gimme a big dump in the whites , January Rainer’s are bad for the soul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3km NAM… this one feels like a storm for the meso-models. Tight thermals, rain, sleet, snow. Part of me wonders if the global models are over extending the amount of snowfall over wide areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: 3km NAM… this one feels like a storm for the meso-models. Tight thermals, rain, sleet, snow. Part of me wonders if the global models are over extending the amount of snowfall over wide areas. It's also a clown map problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: that would be sumpim Sumpim to sumpin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Posted strictly for weenie purposes Dak yelling HERE WE GO ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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