Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Following quickly on the heels of Sundays mood/moderate snow event/rain coast, this is where to discuss the wild impacts of the inside-runner bomb. Let's gooo!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 In a nutshellSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: In a nutshell Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I don’t get my rocks off from wind and infrastructure destruction. Everyone has their fetish! Euro starting to look even better for NVT staying mostly frozen. Need a nice base building event. 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 16 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: I don’t get my rocks off from wind and infrastructure destruction. Everyone has their fetish! Euro starting to look even better for NVT staying mostly frozen. Need a nice base building event. I don't understand it, but to each their own. Most are looking for powerful winds and flooding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Gonna need to fire up a thread for the 2nd massive cutter coming up on the 13th soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Nice! So aside from rainfall amounts, how does this 1/10 cutter compare to the 1/13 bomb in terms of wind potential? Also, could the wind surpass the 12/18 system from last month? I know wind is very hard to predict but what would the ceiling be for these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Right now we`re progged for a roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize, but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64 kts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Two cutters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Two cutters Screamers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right now we`re progged for a roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize, but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64 kts. Okay so not as severe as 12/18 then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 22 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Okay so not as severe as 12/18 then Worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 52 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Okay so not as severe as 12/18 then worse for some, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Following quickly on the heels of Sundays mood/moderate snow event/rain coast, this is where to discuss the wild impacts of the inside-runner bomb. Let's gooo!! The title sounds like a chainsaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: The title sounds like a chainsaw Great!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Major severe event still on tap for the deep south! that'll be interesting to track as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Serious CAD. Thumpity thump for the Whites Maine Mts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, WJX231 said: Okay so not as severe as 12/18 then 12/18 had H9 winds to 90 kt. Every coastal county in the GYX CWA had gusts into the 60s, with Criehaven (Knox Cty) hitting 78 mph. Even inland, AUG reached 68. Highly doubt that 1/10 gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Serious CAD. Thumpity thump for the Whites Maine Mts Can you post that over to my neck of the woods? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 44 minutes ago, mreaves said: Can you post that over to my neck of the woods? Thanks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, tamarack said: 12/18 had H9 winds to 90 kt. Every coastal county in the GYX CWA had gusts into the 60s, with Criehaven (Knox Cty) hitting 78 mph. Even inland, AUG reached 68. Highly doubt that 1/10 gets there. Yeah thats what I noticed as well. The H9 winds were insane with that one on 12/18. This one looks much more tame overall. Not sure about 01/13 yet but I highly doubt that rivals 12/18 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Rivers and Streams With the heavy rain and snowmelt, river and stream flooding look to be a significant possibility. The MMEFS indicating several locations for 30% exceedance of minor flooding with a few locations having a 30% chance for moderate flooding. As stated above, the big X factor will be how much snowfall remains after Sundays event and will likely be a big impact in the river flood threat. Strong to Damaging Winds A powerful LLJ will likely bring strong winds and possibly damaging winds to the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Deterministic guidance is in good agreement with a 80-100 kt 850mb LLJ which is approaching 4-5 standard deviations above climatology for this time of year. Even at 925mb, winds could be as high as 70- 90 knots. GFS bufkit soundings at this time don`t show much of any inversion which means these high winds will likely mix down to the surface. NBM probabilites for 58mph gusts (High Wind Warning) are high at 70-90% for Cape Cod and the Islands. Even inland for areas east of the I-95 corridor, probs for 58+ mph gusts are moderate at 40-70%. NBM probabilities for 46mph gusts (Wind Advisory) already showing moderate probs at 40-70% for the interior. As for the marine areas, storm force winds are very likely with hurricane force winds certainly in the realm of possibility with this system. Coastal Flooding Given this system is still more then 3 days out, uncertainty remains high for level of coastal flooding expected. As of right now, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the south coast where 2-4 feet of surge is possible if the timing of the maximum winds aligns with the Wednesday AM high tide. Astro tides are also coming up for the the south and east coast during this time period and may lead to minor coastal flooding impacts even for the eastern facing coasts despite the the unfavorable southerly winds due to rapid pressure drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Personally I'm more of a wind fetish kind of guy than flooding. But its usually the wind that always underperforms while rain usually doesnt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Personally I'm more of a wind fetish kind of guy than flooding. But its usually the wind that always underperforms while rain usually doesnt Yeah no one cares about rain. Hopefully the wind roars 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah no one cares about rain. Hopefully the wind roars let's get those rivers very high and dangerous to wash a few antique covered bridges away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I look back at records for PVD and the 1950s were wild for wind. What a time to be alive. Hurricanes and massive wind cutters. In terms of cutters, March 6, 1959 actually stands out as having the strongest sustained winds at 53 mph for several hours which is the second strongest sustained on record for PVD, only behind Hurricane Carol in 1954. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 17 minutes ago, WJX231 said: I look back at records for PVD and the 1950s were wild for wind. What a time to be alive. Hurricanes and massive wind cutters. In terms of cutters, March 6, 1959 actually stands out as having the strongest sustained winds at 53 mph for several hours which is the second strongest sustained on record for PVD, only behind Hurricane Carol in 1954. 1938, 100 sustained g 125 for Providence. Not sure the sustained in Donna but peak gust was 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 1938, 100 sustained g 125 for Providence. Not sure the sustained in Donna but peak gust was 81 Oh wow really? I figured 1938 was stronger but the records didnt go back that far. Where did you find that out? I compliled this list for PVD: Days with a maximum sustained wind speed of ≥ 45 mph (72 km/h) – (1942 – 2023): 1. 08/31/1954 - 75 mph 2. 03/06/1959 - 53 mph 3. 09/27/1985 - 52 mph 4. 09/12/1960 - 51 mph 5. 12/02/1942 & 09/11/1954 - 50 mph 7. 08/04/2015 - 48 mph 8. 11/21/1956, 11/28/1958 & 03/02/2018 - 47 mph 11. 11/07/1953, 03/20/1958, 12/30/1962, 12/13/1976, 01/26/1978, 12/24/1994, 03/06/1997, 02/08/2013, 10/29/2017 & 10/27/2021 - 46 mph 21. 02/16/1967, 01/23/2005 & 12/23/2022 - 45 mph Days with a maximum wind gust of ≥ 64 mph (103 km/h) – (1953 – 2023): 1. 08/31/1954 - 105 mph 2. 09/12/1960 & 09/27/1985 - 81 mph 4. 09/11/1954 - 79 mph 5. 12/20/2009 - 74 mph 6. 09/14/1956 & 01/26/1978 - 73 mph 8. 03/20/1958 & 11/28/1958 - 71 mph 10. 03/06/1959 - 70 mph 11. 12/07/1953, 11/09/1957, 11/30/1963 & 02/16/1967 - 68 mph 15. 02/06/1978 - 67 mph 16. 12/30/1962, 08/04/2015 & 01/29/2022 - 66 mph 19. 03/02/2018 - 65 mph 20. 12/24/1994, 08/28/2011 & 12/23/2022 - 64 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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